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| | |-+  Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011
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Author Topic: Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011  (Read 30416 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 26, 2011, 05:42:17 am »
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Election on for September 15

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, whose government is trailing the opposition in most polls, called an election for Sept. 15 as a stimulus bill proposed this week looks set to lack lawmaker backing to pass.

Rasmussen, who has led the country since 2009 when his predecessor, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, became secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is calling a vote two months before his term ends.

“In the middle of a global debt crisis, Danes face a clear choice: uncontrolled debt or sustainable welfare,” Rasmussen, 47, said at a press conference at his official residence outside Copenhagen today. ``I haven't hidden the realities.''

Denmark’s frozen housing market and regional bank crisis threaten to prolong a recession in Scandinavia’s worst- performing economy. House sales have dropped to their lowest in more than six years, while two regional bank failures since February have triggered a liquidity crisis that Standard & Poor’s warns may force more lenders to default.

Rasmussen’s Liberal Party-led coalition introduced measures this month to combat the housing slump and beat back the banking crisis while calling for fiscal restraint. The 10.8 billion- krone ($2.1 billion) stimulus plan won’t get the lawmaker backing needed to pass through parliament, Finance Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen told newswire Ritzau. The opposition, led by Social Democrat leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt, presented similar housing measures days before the government and wants to spend more to revive economic growth.

...

A Voxmeter poll published this week by Copenhagen-based newswire Ritzau showed the Liberal Party-led coalition and its allies would lose an election. The bloc would get 44.5 percent of the vote, while the Social Democrat-led opposition would win 53.5 percent, Ritzau said.

Polls indicate voters are more drawn to the opposition’s push for broader public spending, putting Thorning-Schmidt in line to become Denmark’s first female prime minister after a decade of Liberal-Conservative rule.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-26/danish-prime-minister-loekke-rasmussen-calls-general-election-for-sept-15.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_parliamentary_election,_2011
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2011, 05:46:16 am »
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Finally a country's politics going in the right direction. Good to see the Horrible Coalition sent back into the dustbin it emerged from.
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2011, 05:54:23 am »
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The polls:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2011, 05:59:21 am »
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Maybe Jens can tell us more about the polls and how they turned out in the 2007 elections.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2011, 06:18:04 am »
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The new Megafon poll for TV2 shows a closer race:

51.7% Left-coalition
48.3% Right-government

26.1% S
24.9% V

http://valget.tv2.dk/menings
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2011, 06:33:15 am »
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I really know next to nothing about Denmark, but I doubt I'd support any left-wing coalition in Scandinavia.

Interesting, anyway.
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2011, 08:29:07 am »
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The new Megafon poll for TV2 shows a closer race:

51.7% Left-coalition
48.3% Right-government

26.1% S
24.9% V

valget.tv2.dk/menings

A Voxmeter poll, also from today, shows a fairly different result:

ABFØ (centre-left coalition): 54,1% (96 seats)
VCOI (government + supporting parties): 43,8% (79 seats)
The poll gives 2,0 % to parties not getting parliamentary representation.

A good site for comparing two polls (scroll down to the bar chart and choose the polls in the two drop-down-menus below) is

politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/ (sorry, I can't post links, use copy/paste)
« Last Edit: August 26, 2011, 08:37:22 am by rosin »Logged
Sibboleth
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2011, 08:52:39 am »
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Nice link Smiley

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Jens would know better (obviously) but I dimly remember the polls giving the government leads until the end of the campaign when things tightened up a lot.
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2011, 10:11:10 am »
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I hope he comes back. Even if only to post in this thread.
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2011, 11:05:40 am »

Any reason for R/B's growth and the decline of DF and K? Also, kind of surprising SF is level right now. Not so long ago they were doing great.
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2011, 12:41:38 pm »
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I really hope the left wins! A bright spot in an overall horrific few years for the European left.
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2011, 04:04:57 pm »
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This means that losing Spain will be slightly less bitter. Still, nice to see one of Western Europe's most despicable governments getting the boot.
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2011, 05:47:39 pm »
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Finally a country's politics going in the right direction. Good to see the Horrible Coalition sent back into the dustbin it emerged from.

I really hope the left wins! A bright spot in an overall horrific few years for the European left.
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2011, 06:16:56 pm »
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When I was in Denmark most of the people I talked to thought the right would win, although I was in Copenhagen which is fairly left wing and never went for the right to begin with so many may just have a cynical view that the rest of the country will vote to the right as it has in the past few elections.  I should also note France could swing left next year and possibly Germany the year after although I wouldn't get too excited.  It looked for quite a while like the Netherlands and Sweden would swing left, but they did not, so we shall see.  I wonder if the right will do better than the polls suggest due to the fact the demographics that generally vote for them tend to have a better turnout.  I know our politics are quite different, but that is what happened last federal election here in Canada where all the polls suggested a Conservative minority, yet they won a majority.
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2011, 06:27:29 pm »
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When I was in Denmark most of the people I talked to thought the right would win, although I was in Copenhagen which is fairly left wing and never went for the right to begin with so many may just have a cynical view that the rest of the country will vote to the right as it has in the past few elections.  I should also note France could swing left next year and possibly Germany the year after although I wouldn't get too excited.  It looked for quite a while like the Netherlands and Sweden would swing left, but they did not, so we shall see.  I wonder if the right will do better than the polls suggest due to the fact the demographics that generally vote for them tend to have a better turnout.  I know our politics are quite different, but that is what happened last federal election here in Canada where all the polls suggested a Conservative minority, yet they won a majority.

The cynical thing is quite common the world over to be honest. France is more likely to swing left than Germany to be fair. If anything, it's not outside the realm of possibility for the CDU to win the popular vote and form another grand coalition (or even a Green coalition), but they'll clearly have a harder time than they did in 2009. Although, the left have really developed an ability to monumentally shoot themselves in the foot and steal defeat from the jaws of victory. And Canada's politics, from what I know of it, is generally unpredictable - Canadian elections seem to have more wild, unexpected, swings than many other countries (1993, 2011, many regional elections).
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2011, 09:11:35 pm »
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Which party over there is the nazis? The Vent party?
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2011, 09:38:13 pm »
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Which party over there is the nazis? The Vent party?

?  You mean Venestre?

Venestre stands for "Left" or "Liberal", which is the very moderately conservative party that's aligned with ELDR in the EU.  K/Conservative is the mainstream conservative party.  I approve of both.

DF/Danish People's Party are the crazy right-wing populist nutcases.
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2011, 12:01:17 am »
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Any reason for R/B's growth and the decline of DF and K? Also, kind of surprising SF is level right now. Not so long ago they were doing great.

They topped too early. The problem is that SF have moved somewhat to the right, centralised, compromised and become more responsable, so they have bleed the more radical socialist to Unity Left, the so called Cafe Latte segment to the Social Liberals and many former Social Democrats have returned to the Social Democrats. Of course they still stand to more votes than last election which was their best ever. So you can question a media which see the potential best or second best election ever as bad thing.
The Social Liberal (R/B) have had success because they do as they usual do, behave with absolut arrogance and run hard on getting influence, because the government was desperate they got that influence and the voters have rewarded them for it.
The Conservative have lost a significant amount of vote because their former leader became very very unpopular and Liberal Alliance have stolen much of their economic politics (and made it more extreme).
DF are losing voters because no one give sh**t about foreigners or Muslims right now, and because of Norway they can't behave as their normal charming self, it doesn't help that they have made some compromises which have hurt their voter segment rather badly.
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« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2011, 12:07:17 am »
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When I was in Denmark most of the people I talked to thought the right would win, although I was in Copenhagen which is fairly left wing and never went for the right to begin with so many may just have a cynical view that the rest of the country will vote to the right as it has in the past few elections.  I should also note France could swing left next year and possibly Germany the year after although I wouldn't get too excited.  It looked for quite a while like the Netherlands and Sweden would swing left, but they did not, so we shall see.  I wonder if the right will do better than the polls suggest due to the fact the demographics that generally vote for them tend to have a better turnout.  I know our politics are quite different, but that is what happened last federal election here in Canada where all the polls suggested a Conservative minority, yet they won a majority.

The Left will likely win, but it's no sure thing. Everybody are tired of the government, people are tired of discussing Muslims and we can't harden our immigration policies any more without risking breaking international conventions, which the Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Aliiance aren't willing to do. So the election is about economy, and while it has traditional been the rights strong points, they have had the power in 10 years, so the economy lies squarely at their feet.
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2011, 12:19:59 am »
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Which party over there is the nazis? The Vent party?

?  You mean Venestre?

Venestre stands for "Left" or "Liberal", which is the very moderately conservative party that's aligned with ELDR in the EU.  K/Conservative is the mainstream conservative party.  I approve of both.

DF/Danish People's Party are the crazy right-wing populist nutcases.

This is not to be a asshole, but it's "Venstre", it means left and come from 19th century when the parliament was spit between the conservative Høire (right) and the liberal Venstre (left) with the Social Democrats as a third extreme left party.

In DF case replace crazy with "far" and remove nutcases and you have them. DF are sane, diciplined and well organised, they exist in a whole other category than most far right parties in  Europe, which make them on the whole a much more dangerous opponent than most such parties. Of course it should be said that the reason that a DF MP wouldn't fit into the Republican Party, would be because he would be too pro-gay, pro-abortion and to economical centrist to fit in, some of the things Republican presidental candidate have said about Muslims, would result in people being thrown out of DF if they said the same. 
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« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2011, 04:56:19 am »
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Nice link Smiley

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Jens would know better (obviously) but I dimly remember the polls giving the government leads until the end of the campaign when things tightened up a lot.
At the last election in 2007, the polls all showed a "hung" parliament until literaly the last day(s). It looked like the VKO-majority was gone and that the new party, New Alliance (now Liberal Alliance) would hold the decisive votes. NA managed to mess everything up, went from about 5-6 % to 2,8 % of the votes and those 2-3 % moved to VKO, who just keep their majority.
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« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2011, 05:01:16 am »
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I hope he comes back. Even if only to post in this thread.
I never really left Wink But I am quite busy with the campaign here in Cph...
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2011, 05:30:38 am »
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Any reason for R/B's growth and the decline of DF and K? Also, kind of surprising SF is level right now. Not so long ago they were doing great.

Conservatives did it for them self, when Lene Espersen took over from Bent Bentsen as leader of K and pushed the quite well liked Per Stig Møller from the Ministry of Foreig Affairs - he became Minister of Culture - and then managed to gain a reputation as lazy and always on vacation. At the same time Liberal Alliance run a succesfull campaign that branded the party as the party for the young libetarian man, essential stealing an important part of the conservative voting base.

Never trust any polls that indicate a decline for DF. They have quite the shy voter base.

Radikale has managed to rebrand them self as compassionate centre right and has quite a succes when they finally got a reform of the "efterløn" (a early retirement system started in the 70'ties, that allowes people to retire between 60 and 65 on a reduced pension). They have attracted a lot of the so called Café Latte-voters who like all the environmental stuff and agree to the idea of the wellfare state (to a certain limit) but don't really like that they have to pay taxes (and are having a hard time about DF. They are predominately big city people and well educated).

SF enjoyed a long run with very positive press, but in last years the right started to attact SF. A campaign about the chef whips past as chairman of the communist party in the late 80'ties (he was kicked out from DKP by the hardcore stalinist later) and another where SF's full name always was said, to illustrate that the party was socialists (my oh my! Wink ) did some damage, but the big thing was the so called point system late last year.
The government introduced a point system for immigrants that was rather complex and in its essence made it easier to immigrate to Denmark or bring a foreign partner into the country if he or she was from the right countries (no need to say which) or was educated.
SF handled the situation about the point system pretty badly, not really saying whether SF was for or against and the next week S and SF presented their own point system, that really wasn't a point system, but five demands where you had to forfill 3 of them to be allowed residency. But at lot of the more left wing SF voters saw it as the same bacis concept as the governments and left for Enhedslisten and some of the creative class (as we call them) left for Radikale.

And now I'm of to campaign (in rain and thunder - everything for the party Cheesy )
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2011, 05:09:31 pm »
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You guys wouldn't happen to have a link to a party test preferably in English, or even Swedish? I'm sort of curious to which party I'd be considered closest to. I'm guessing either Venstre, Radikale Venstre, or Liberal Alliance. I can read written Danish rather decently, but when it comes to politics there's always there will always be strange an hard words that non-speakers will have a hard time understanding.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2011, 05:13:52 pm by Swedish Cheese »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2011, 05:02:15 am »
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You guys wouldn't happen to have a link to a party test preferably in English, or even Swedish? I'm sort of curious to which party I'd be considered closest to. I'm guessing either Venstre, Radikale Venstre, or Liberal Alliance. I can read written Danish rather decently, but when it comes to politics there's always there will always be strange an hard words that non-speakers will have a hard time understanding.

You wouldn't vote with a party that allies with the far-right ? Huh
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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