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Author Topic: Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011  (Read 37816 times)
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« Reply #125 on: September 14, 2011, 06:05:47 am »
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I just found out Thoring-Schmidt is married to Niel Kinnock's son. Am I the only one who didn't know this already? That's quite intresting considering there seem to be a few similarities between Denmark '11 and Britain '92.

A goverment that is fighting for it's fourth general election victory, with a new PM who replaced a more charismatic leader mid-term. Polls showing a relativly close election, but the opposition having the edge. It's the opposition leader's second general election, but the leader seem unable to get people especially exited about their party and support for the opposition seems more due to people being tired with the goverment than them actually wanting the alternative.

There might (although very unlikly) be a chance of Helle following in her father-in-laws footsteps tomorrow.

 
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« Reply #126 on: September 14, 2011, 06:23:55 am »
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BTW, why is the Right-coalition not referred to as "VOCI", but as "VCOI" - even though the "O" was/is bigger than the "C" ?

Wink

V and C is the government parties and the government is called VK-regeringen (the VK government. Nobody calls it VC because WC and VC is pronounced the same way in Danish Wink )
The Blue Block was originally called VKO, with DF as the supporting party providing the necessary mandates for the majority. Shortly after the 2007 election did VKO lose the majority (a conservative left the party) and became dependent on Liberal Alliance, thus adding the I to the Blue Block = VKOI or VCOI, but nobody uses that. It's still VKO, much like a coming SD-led minority government will be called S-SF-R or ABF even though Ø will supply the last mandates for the majority. 
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« Reply #127 on: September 14, 2011, 06:33:05 am »
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I just found out Thoring-Schmidt is married to Niel Kinnock's son. Am I the only one who didn't know this already? That's quite intresting considering there seem to be a few similarities between Denmark '11 and Britain '92.

A goverment that is fighting for it's fourth general election victory, with a new PM who replaced a more charismatic leader mid-term. Polls showing a relativly close election, but the opposition having the edge. It's the opposition leader's second general election, but the leader seem unable to get people especially exited about their party and support for the opposition seems more due to people being tired with the goverment than them actually wanting the alternative.

There might (although very unlikly) be a chance of Helle following in her father-in-laws footsteps tomorrow.

 

Common knowledge in Denmark, but a lot don't know who Neil Kinnock is Wink
Danish PM don't tent to be popular before they become PM's - PR makes coalitions necessary and doesn't promote a "presidential" election - especially not in this election, where the most popular politicians all are from smaller parties. Margrethe Vestager, Villy Søvndal and Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen are all far more popular that Helle Thorning and Lars Løkke and are liked by more than 50 % of the population. That gives this situation where the smaller parties attract a lot of the votes. There is a good change that the two largest parties will not hold a majority, quite a change from 2001, where SD and V had more that 60 % of the votes.
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« Reply #128 on: September 14, 2011, 07:16:58 am »
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It's interesting (though not really surprising) that the different last trackers all show similar overall numbers (92 left, 91 left, 91 left, 92 left) but show different things within each block.
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« Reply #129 on: September 14, 2011, 07:28:54 am »
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If the Christian Democrats for example would get past the 2% (I think) threshold, have they said which coalition they would prefer to be in ? Do they even want to be in one or do the coalitions want them to be part of it ?

I guess from their platform, they would enter the current government coalition, right ?
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« Reply #130 on: September 14, 2011, 07:51:48 am »
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Is it definite that the coalitions cling together in this election?
And that not for example, the Radikale Venstre goes with the center-right?
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« Reply #131 on: September 14, 2011, 08:43:11 am »
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I've heard a lot of talk about a possible AFO coalition if ABFØ doesn't manage to get along, but I'm not taking that seriously.

I have a hard time seeing the current coalitions breaking up.
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« Reply #132 on: September 14, 2011, 09:05:52 am »
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Uh, the Danes with their weird party letters... but I looked it up.

So there is talking about a coalition of Social Democrats, Socialists and the Danish People's Party? I hope your right and it isn't serious.

I'm not exactly a friend of Querfront ideas.
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« Reply #133 on: September 14, 2011, 09:17:13 am »
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If the Christian Democrats for example would get past the 2% (I think) threshold, have they said which coalition they would prefer to be in ? Do they even want to be in one or do the coalitions want them to be part of it ?

I guess from their platform, they would enter the current government coalition, right ?

They will support Lars Løkke Rasmussen
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« Reply #134 on: September 14, 2011, 09:38:32 am »
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Is it definite that the coalitions cling together in this election?
And that not for example, the Radikale Venstre goes with the center-right?
'
No, not in historical context, but honestly unless VRKI can get over 90 mandates, it isn't realistic today. Of course VOCI can offer R's leader to become PM if the negotiation with AFØ fails. Which is R's strongest card. But honestly O(DPP) voters hate R more than anybody else, so it's something of a empty threat.
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« Reply #135 on: September 14, 2011, 09:41:58 am »
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I've heard a lot of talk about a possible AFO coalition if ABFØ doesn't manage to get along, but I'm not taking that seriously.

I have a hard time seeing the current coalitions breaking up.


Uh, the Danes with their weird party letters... but I looked it up.

So there is talking about a coalition of Social Democrats, Socialists and the Danish People's Party? I hope your right and it isn't serious.

I'm not exactly a friend of Querfront ideas.

It's not going to happen. Honestly even the offer is mostly a big sarcastic "fyck you" from AF to DPP and its rhetoric about social justice.

---post edited to get the meaning through our silly filter---
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« Reply #136 on: September 14, 2011, 10:01:06 am »
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But honestly O(DPP) voters hate R more than anybody else, so it's something of a empty threat.

That's what I expected.

Would you agree with the argument that the Radikale Venstre fill the gap for the nonexistent Greens in Denmark? Well educated electorate, focusing on post-materialist issues etc.
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« Reply #137 on: September 14, 2011, 10:39:38 am »
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But honestly O(DPP) voters hate R more than anybody else, so it's something of a empty threat.

That's what I expected.

Would you agree with the argument that the Radikale Venstre fill the gap for the nonexistent Greens in Denmark? Well educated electorate, focusing on post-materialist issues etc.

No SF mostly take that position, through now that they have begun to embrace more coherent and pragmatic position, Enhedslisten has begun to take over that position. Radikale Venstre are closer to FDP in ideology, through they often share voters with SF and Enhedslisten, through they have gotten a influx of conservative voters in this election.
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« Reply #138 on: September 14, 2011, 03:08:08 pm »
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If the Christian Democrats for example would get past the 2% (I think) threshold, have they said which coalition they would prefer to be in ? Do they even want to be in one or do the coalitions want them to be part of it ?

I guess from their platform, they would enter the current government coalition, right ?

I don't think they would support the current coalition on the right, mainly because of The Danish Peoples party. In that respect they are quite like the Norwegian Christian Democrats.
The difference is that the Norwegian Christian Democrats are at least somewhat relevant.
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« Reply #139 on: September 14, 2011, 03:18:04 pm »
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If the Christian Democrats for example would get past the 2% (I think) threshold, have they said which coalition they would prefer to be in ? Do they even want to be in one or do the coalitions want them to be part of it ?

I guess from their platform, they would enter the current government coalition, right ?

I don't think they would support the current coalition on the right, mainly because of The Danish Peoples party. In that respect they are quite like the Norwegian Christian Democrats.
The difference is that the Norwegian Christian Democrats are at least somewhat relevant.

They would support Lars Løkke Rasmussen, they have even said so. But even if he got in a government on their votes, they wouldn't necessary support the laws the government pushed through, which would mean that it would need a alternative majority. Just as in case of a ABF government, they will likely cooperate more with the right than with Unity List and UL will accept that and keep supporting the government, because they hate the alternative more.
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« Reply #140 on: September 14, 2011, 04:13:24 pm »
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So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory
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« Reply #141 on: September 14, 2011, 04:25:36 pm »
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So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory
The 24-year rule stays because the Socialdemocrats want it to. And they have a majority with V, K and O. So yes, but SF doesn't support it, but has made an agreement with SD that removes some of the other bad things introduced under the current government, most importantly the socalled Starthjælp (litt. start help) a heavily reduced social benefit and the ban on asylum seekers working and living outside the asylum centres while their case it being processed (which can take years). Right now they are locked up in the centres for years and years.
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« Reply #142 on: September 14, 2011, 04:40:58 pm »
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But honestly O(DPP) voters hate R more than anybody else, so it's something of a empty threat.

That's what I expected.

Would you agree with the argument that the Radikale Venstre fill the gap for the nonexistent Greens in Denmark? Well educated electorate, focusing on post-materialist issues etc.

No SF mostly take that position, through now that they have begun to embrace more coherent and pragmatic position, Enhedslisten has begun to take over that position. Radikale Venstre are closer to FDP in ideology, through they often share voters with SF and Enhedslisten, through they have gotten a influx of conservative voters in this election.
Well, I don't completely agree with that description. SF managed to incorporate the green movements in the party in the late 70'ties and early 80'ties, which meant the the Danish Green Party never got more than 1 ½ % of the votes. That is also why SF went from less that 4 % in 1977 to 11 % in 1981. The same thing happened in Norway, and is to some extent connected with the fact that SF and SV were "new" parties and not associated with the old communist movement. In Sweden and Germany with Vpk and DKP that wasn't a possibility.
Radikale has been from the foundation the party of the intelligentsia and never closely associated with NGO's (or movements, as it's called on the Danish left wing Wink ) Originally FDP and RV shared quite a lot, but today FDP's real sister party in Denmark is Liberal Alliance. SF and RV might share a lot of policies on social values, and in that way do share voters, but is quite different on economical policies - If you where a bit cynical, you might say that many RV voters are left wingers, who now earns money and are felling the Danish taxation (topskat) Wink 
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« Reply #143 on: September 14, 2011, 04:46:09 pm »
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So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory
The 24-year rule stays because the Socialdemocrats want it to. And they have a majority with V, K and O. So yes, but SF doesn't support it, but has made an agreement with SD that removes some of the other bad things introduced under the current government, most importantly the socalled Starthjælp (litt. start help) a heavily reduced social benefit and the ban on asylum seekers working and living outside the asylum centres while their case it being processed (which can take years). Right now they are locked up in the centres for years and years.

So they might change one of the most outlandish horrible immigration policies, but leave the rest. Personally I don't feel that makes up for it. The Social Democrats in Denmark has every fault of the Social Democrats in Sweden, but they even lack the redeming qualities that our Social Democrats has. The fact that they're so unwilling to change the 24-year rule shows that they're just as willing as Venstre and Konservative to throw immigrants under the bus to obtain electoral success and power.  
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« Reply #144 on: September 14, 2011, 05:26:01 pm »
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So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory
The 24-year rule stays because the Socialdemocrats want it to. And they have a majority with V, K and O. So yes, but SF doesn't support it, but has made an agreement with SD that removes some of the other bad things introduced under the current government, most importantly the socalled Starthjælp (litt. start help) a heavily reduced social benefit and the ban on asylum seekers working and living outside the asylum centres while their case it being processed (which can take years). Right now they are locked up in the centres for years and years.

So they might change one of the most outlandish horrible immigration policies, but leave the rest. Personally I don't feel that makes up for it. The Social Democrats in Denmark has every fault of the Social Democrats in Sweden, but they even lack the redeming qualities that our Social Democrats has. The fact that they're so unwilling to change the 24-year rule shows that they're just as willing as Venstre and Konservative to throw immigrants under the bus to obtain electoral success and power.  

Cannot disagree with that - but 10 years of DF "in power" has caused quite a change in discourse compared with Sweden.
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« Reply #145 on: September 14, 2011, 05:26:40 pm »
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Hi,

I don't know if anyone would be interested - but I've put together an Excel spreadsheet of the detailed results, down to municipality and polling district, for the 2007 Danish election, coloured by winning party.

If you'd like a copy, please drop me a line at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk - thanks.

(I think this is only the second time I've posted on here, so if any regulars could let me know if I've broken any forum rules by putting an email address on, then thanks and many apologies!)
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« Reply #146 on: September 14, 2011, 08:50:56 pm »
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What are the odds that a new Red government would move to implement marriage equality?
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« Reply #147 on: September 14, 2011, 09:04:42 pm »
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What are the chances that the Right pulls an upset tomorrow?

I'm very interested to see the results from this election and I hope that the Radikale Venstre can carve out a niche in Denmark that the Greens have in the rest of Europe. Social democrats across Europe need a firm kick to remember who they're serving (hint: not austerity-obsessed technocrats). I supposd that thinking from that perspective I should be cheering for the Unity List but I can't stand gimmicky radical left wing parties that are really concerned with pet issues of the wealthy like feminism and being against globalization. The Socialists rubbed me the wrong way with their capitulation on immigration as well.

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« Reply #148 on: September 15, 2011, 12:11:52 am »
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the only phrases I know in Danish are "skal" and "jeg vil kneppe dig" but I think politiken.dk is predicting a 92-83 left majority:

http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/
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« Reply #149 on: September 15, 2011, 04:52:18 am »
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Time for a prediction:

25.0% (2007: 25.5%) A => Socialdemokratiet/Social Democrats
11.2% (2007: 13.0%) F => Socialistisk Folkeparti/Socialist People's Party
10.1% (2007:   5.1%) B => Radikale Venstre/Social Liberal Party
  6.3% (2007:   2.2%) Ø => Enhedslisten/Red-Green Alliance

52.6% (2007: 45.8%) => Left/Opposition Alliance

24.1% (2007: 26.3%) V = Venstre/Liberal Party
11.6% (2007: 13.8%) O = Dansk Folkeparti/Danish People's Party
  5.5% (2007:   2.8%) I = Liberal Alliance
  5.4% (2007: 10.4%) C = Konservative Folkeparti/Conservative People's Party

46.6% (2007: 53.3%) => Right/Government Alliance

0.8% (2007: 0.9%) K = Kristendemokraterne/Christian Democrats
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