Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011

[Tender Branson]

Election on for September 15

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, whose government is trailing the opposition in most polls, called an election for Sept. 15 as a stimulus bill proposed this week looks set to lack lawmaker backing to pass.

Rasmussen, who has led the country since 2009 when his predecessor, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, became secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is calling a vote two months before his term ends.

“In the middle of a global debt crisis, Danes face a clear choice: uncontrolled debt or sustainable welfare,” Rasmussen, 47, said at a press conference at his official residence outside Copenhagen today. ``I haven't hidden the realities.''

Denmark’s frozen housing market and regional bank crisis threaten to prolong a recession in Scandinavia’s worst- performing economy. House sales have dropped to their lowest in more than six years, while two regional bank failures since February have triggered a liquidity crisis that Standard & Poor’s warns may force more lenders to default.

Rasmussen’s Liberal Party-led coalition introduced measures this month to combat the housing slump and beat back the banking crisis while calling for fiscal restraint. The 10.8 billion- krone ($2.1 billion) stimulus plan won’t get the lawmaker backing needed to pass through parliament, Finance Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen told newswire Ritzau. The opposition, led by Social Democrat leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt, presented similar housing measures days before the government and wants to spend more to revive economic growth.

...

A Voxmeter poll published this week by Copenhagen-based newswire Ritzau showed the Liberal Party-led coalition and its allies would lose an election. The bloc would get 44.5 percent of the vote, while the Social Democrat-led opposition would win 53.5 percent, Ritzau said.

Polls indicate voters are more drawn to the opposition’s push for broader public spending, putting Thorning-Schmidt in line to become Denmark’s first female prime minister after a decade of Liberal-Conservative rule.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-26/danish-prime-minister-loekke-rasmussen-calls-general-election-for-sept-15.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_parliamentary_election,_2011

[Tender Branson]

The polls:

[Tender Branson]

Maybe Jens can tell us more about the polls and how they turned out in the 2007 elections.

[Tender Branson]

The new Megafon poll for TV2 shows a closer race:

51.7% Left-coalition
48.3% Right-government

26.1% S
24.9% V

http://valget.tv2.dk/menings

[Tender Branson]

You guys wouldn't happen to have a link to a party test preferably in English, or even Swedish? I'm sort of curious to which party I'd be considered closest to. I'm guessing either Venstre, Radikale Venstre, or Liberal Alliance. I can read written Danish rather decently, but when it comes to politics there's always there will always be strange an hard words that non-speakers will have a hard time understanding.

Here is a test with 25 questions. It's only in Danish, but I used the Google Translator and understood most of the questions.

Here are my results:

Du har meget til fælles med:

Enhedslisten 59%

Du har en del til fælles med:

Socialistic Folkerparti 54%
Konservative 48%
Socialdemokratiet 46%
Kristendemokraterne 46%
Dansk Folkeparti 45%
Radikale Venstre 45%
Venstre 39%
Liberal Alliance 36%

http://jp.dk/indland/indland_politik/kompas

[Tender Branson]

Hi guys
Lots of great questions from you, and some utterly stupid discussion about SF - I'll probably answer that at some point....

The Jyllandsposten test is ok - I'll try to answer any questions that might be (and if I suddenly find some time - to translate it)

I tried the English translation. It made the first question into "The Wage must be abolished" I found that amusing. Then I looked up the Danish term to see what it was about.

I understood it like: "Should the overtime premiums be abolished ?" because "Should the wage be abolished ?" doesn't make much sense, unless it's a communist question.

[Tender Branson]

Hi guys
Lots of great questions from you, and some utterly stupid discussion about SF - I'll probably answer that at some point....

The Jyllandsposten test is ok - I'll try to answer any questions that might be (and if I suddenly find some time - to translate it)

I tried the English translation. It made the first question into "The Wage must be abolished" I found that amusing. Then I looked up the Danish term to see what it was about.

I'm have taken that test, and I'm going to guess it's the Efterløn (dir. translated After-wage) which are the problem. It's a special early retirement policy, which let people leave the work force a little earlier (5 year earlier*) at a significant lower rate than the usual pension (but only until they reach the standard retirement age). It was original a way to get rid of youth unemployment by letting people retire earlier, but it has evolved into a policy popular among people in physical hard and low or  unskilled job, who rather than working until they collapse or need to go on førtidspension (early retirement for people with chronic diseases) go on efterløn. It's deeply unpopular among the academics and blue collars who feel the deep injustice of paying to something which primary benefit others than themselves.

*it adapts to the rising retirement age

Ohhh, so I was completely wrong !

It's the Danish version of what we call the "Hacklerpension". In Austria this possibility of early retirement will be phased out by 2014, mostly because the ÖVP has argued that too many people are applying for it who are not classified as "hard workers", such as bureaucrats instead of construction workers. On this I´m on the workers side and I would like to see it continue for "hard workers" only, people who work in the construction business or steel business etc., while the bunch of overpaid bureaucrats can go an f**k themselves.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the Left-Coalition still has about 51-53% support in todays 4 tracking polls.

The only real trend I have noticed recently is that the Venstre could overtake the Social Democrats.

Also, the Enhedslisten seem to gain ground rapidely, from 2% to 7% now.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the average of the final 4 tracking polls (Voxmeter, Ramboll, Megafon, Gallup) today:

24.3% (2007: 25.5%) A => Socialdemokratiet/Social Democrats
10.6% (2007: 13.0%) F => Socialistisk Folkeparti/Socialist People's Party
10.0% (2007:   5.1%) B => Radikale Venstre/Social Liberal Party
  6.8% (2007:   2.2%) Ø => Enhedslisten/Red-Green Alliance

51.7% (2007: 45.8%) => Left/Opposition Alliance

23.7% (2007: 26.3%) V = Venstre/Liberal Party
12.3% (2007: 13.8%) O = Dansk Folkeparti/Danish People's Party
  5.8% (2007: 10.4%) C = Konservative Folkeparti/Conservative People's Party
  5.6% (2007:   2.8%) I = Liberal Alliance

47.4% (2007: 53.3%) => Right/Government Alliance

0.9% (2007: 0.9%) K = Kristendemokraterne/Christian Democrats

[Tender Branson]

BTW, why is the Right-coalition not referred to as "VOCI", but as "VCOI" - even though the "O" was/is bigger than the "C" ?

[Tender Branson]

If the Christian Democrats for example would get past the 2% (I think) threshold, have they said which coalition they would prefer to be in ? Do they even want to be in one or do the coalitions want them to be part of it ?

I guess from their platform, they would enter the current government coalition, right ?

[Tender Branson]

Time for a prediction:

25.0% (2007: 25.5%) A => Socialdemokratiet/Social Democrats
11.2% (2007: 13.0%) F => Socialistisk Folkeparti/Socialist People's Party
10.1% (2007:   5.1%) B => Radikale Venstre/Social Liberal Party
  6.3% (2007:   2.2%) Ø => Enhedslisten/Red-Green Alliance

52.6% (2007: 45.8%) => Left/Opposition Alliance

24.1% (2007: 26.3%) V = Venstre/Liberal Party
11.6% (2007: 13.8%) O = Dansk Folkeparti/Danish People's Party
  5.5% (2007:   2.8%) I = Liberal Alliance
  5.4% (2007: 10.4%) C = Konservative Folkeparti/Conservative People's Party

46.6% (2007: 53.3%) => Right/Government Alliance

0.8% (2007: 0.9%) K = Kristendemokraterne/Christian Democrats

[Tender Branson]

Jens, when can we expect exit polls and first results ?

And do you know a TV channel, where we can watch online ?

[Tender Branson]

As for me, if I were a Danish voter, I would vote:



today, mostly because of what TheDeadFlagBlues has said. Enhedslisten & Socialistisk Folkeparti are too radical in my opinion while the Social Democrats are for the status quo. Radikale Venstre is right there in the middle and electable. I hope they get close to 10% or more.

[Tender Branson]

http://sputnik.tv2.dk/valg

I guess this will have a live stream for the exit polls.

At least it's working for me, even though I understand absolutely nothing.

[Tender Branson]

You can follow the count on this link: http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2011/ It's the official site, and besides the news outlets, the only online source (no local result reports)

May I'm acting dump, but is there a way to follow the counting on a national level, not only for each county?

http://www.dst.dk/valg/Valg1204271/valgopg/valgopg.htm

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll in 2 minutes.

http://sputnik.tv2.dk/valg/

[Tender Branson]

LOL.

90-89 for the Right.

[Tender Branson]

There's also another exit poll from Megafon:

93-86 Left

[Tender Branson]

Another exit poll for the Danish Radio has 91-84 for the Left.

[Tender Branson]

And another exit poll by YouGov for MetroXpress:

V. Venstre, Danmarks Liberale Parti            24,6%           43
O. Dansk Folkeparti                                     11,9%           21
I. Liberal Alliance                                          6,8%            12
C. Konservative                                            5,5%            10

A. Socialdemokraterne                              24,1%             42
B. De Radikale                                             9,7%            17
F. SF - Socialistisk Folkeparti                       9,4%            17
Ø. Enhedslisten - De Rød-Grønne                7,6%           13

K. Kristendemokraterne                                0,4%              0

...

89-86 Opposition.

http://www.metroxpress.dk/nyheder/endnu-en-exit-poll-fra-metroxpressyougov-viser-rd-valgsejr/KObkio!WpAE91vk6hbyI/

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll in 2 minutes.

http://sputnik.tv2.dk/valg/

There is a Danish TV called Sputnik ? Damn commiez.

Anyways, I'm watching this. Understand nothing, but hopefully they'll show some numbers soon.

They won't show any numbers until at least 10pm, because the voting booths are still open until 8pm (for some strange reason).

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is projected to be between 85-90%.

[Tender Branson]

17:00 turnout: 60.0%
18:00 turnout: 72.6%

[Tender Branson]

Jens, why is it allowed in Denmark to publish exit polls 2 hours before the polls close ?