Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

You guys wouldn't happen to have a link to a party test preferably in English, or even Swedish? I'm sort of curious to which party I'd be considered closest to. I'm guessing either Venstre, Radikale Venstre, or Liberal Alliance. I can read written Danish rather decently, but when it comes to politics there's always there will always be strange an hard words that non-speakers will have a hard time understanding.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

You guys wouldn't happen to have a link to a party test preferably in English, or even Swedish? I'm sort of curious to which party I'd be considered closest to. I'm guessing either Venstre, Radikale Venstre, or Liberal Alliance. I can read written Danish rather decently, but when it comes to politics there's always there will always be strange an hard words that non-speakers will have a hard time understanding.

You wouldn't vote with a party that allies with the far-right ?

Based on economic matters they might very well be the party I'm closest to on most issues, that doesn't mean I'd vote for them in this election. I'd either vote for Radikale Venstre hoping to get as strong centrist and centre-right influence as possible in the new goverment, or Liberal Alliance to strengthen the immigration-friendly right. But I still think it's quite likly I'd end up closest to Venstre on a party test.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I actually understood 90% of that test without need for translation.

My result:

Liberal Alliance - 61%
Venstre - 57%
Konservative - 56%
Dansk Folkeparti - 54%
Radikale Venstre - 53%
Socialdemokratiet - 48%
Socialistic Folkerparti - 46%
Enhedslisten - 45%

No surprise really, as I suspected LA and V in top. RV lower than I had thought, but then from what I've read they apperently have really soft left-wing bad education policies, and there where quite a few education questions (which I always rank as important)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Swedish media is reporting today that the centre-right is gaining back ground according to a poll by Voxmeter, and that they're know only slightly behind the centre-left.

I know nothing about the pollster, so they might just be bad, or it's an outliner. Wouldn't surprise me too much if it were true though. Goverments tend to gain a bit when the election is coming closer. Could end up being a Danish version of Sweden 2006 when the opposition had a decisive lead for a long time before the election, but where the election got really close in the end and the opposition only ending up defeating the goverment by a very slim margin.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There's a Megafon poll out today showing the left's lead widening. Looking at some of the other polls as well, Voxmeter appear to be showing noticably less support for the Socialists and the Greens than other pollsters.
http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/

If Helle Thorning Schmidt isn't the next PM of Denmark, the European Left are beyond screwed.

Probably an outliner. And my money is of course still on Thoring Schmit having majority support (in one form or another) but I think it might end up closer than it looks.

Going to spend the night with a Danish guy, should be an exciting evening.

EDIT: Looking at Al's amazing maps. That little Green spot north of Copenhagen is Pia Kjaersgaard's home town, fun little trivia.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I don't get the left's apparent downfall... Did something particular happen in these last weeks ?

Elections get closer in the spurt, that's just the way of things. Polls tightened in Sweden both in 2006 and 2010 the week before the elections. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Still, having Venstre > SD and DF > SF is a pretty significant change, no ? Doesn't that mean the left's overall leadis razor-thin ?

Todays voxmeter is saying it's only 1,5% lead for the left. There are two other polls sayig the left's lead is 4,8% and 4,9% respectivly.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yeah, I noticed the collapsed Conservative vote. Where have they gone? To Venstre?

Liberal Alliance, and Radikale Venstre possibly

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I just found out Thoring-Schmidt is married to Niel Kinnock's son. Am I the only one who didn't know this already? That's quite intresting considering there seem to be a few similarities between Denmark '11 and Britain '92.

A goverment that is fighting for it's fourth general election victory, with a new PM who replaced a more charismatic leader mid-term. Polls showing a relativly close election, but the opposition having the edge. It's the opposition leader's second general election, but the leader seem unable to get people especially exited about their party and support for the opposition seems more due to people being tired with the goverment than them actually wanting the alternative.

There might (although very unlikly) be a chance of Helle following in her father-in-laws footsteps tomorrow.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I've heard a lot of talk about a possible AFO coalition if ABFØ doesn't manage to get along, but I'm not taking that seriously.

I have a hard time seeing the current coalitions breaking up.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory

The 24-year rule stays because the Socialdemocrats want it to. And they have a majority with V, K and O. So yes, but SF doesn't support it, but has made an agreement with SD that removes some of the other bad things introduced under the current government, most importantly the socalled Starthjælp (litt. start help) a heavily reduced social benefit and the ban on asylum seekers working and living outside the asylum centres while their case it being processed (which can take years). Right now they are locked up in the centres for years and years.

So they might change one of the most outlandish horrible immigration policies, but leave the rest. Personally I don't feel that makes up for it. The Social Democrats in Denmark has every fault of the Social Democrats in Sweden, but they even lack the redeming qualities that our Social Democrats has. The fact that they're so unwilling to change the 24-year rule shows that they're just as willing as Venstre and Konservative to throw immigrants under the bus to obtain electoral success and power.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Ah yes predictions.

ABFØ - 50,7%

A - 25,6%
B - 9,7%
F - 10,1
Ø - 5,3%

VCOI - 48,2%

V - 24,7%
C - 5,6%
O - 12,8%
I - 5,1%

As for who I'd personally vote for if I was a Danish voter. Liberal Alliance, while in no way ideal, is definatley the parliamentry party that are closest to my ideological views while at the same time not having an immigration policy to the right of Arizona Republicans.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Hah I knew it was going to be closer than it looked, but the Reds still edging out a victory. We'll have to see for how long the Social Democrats will be able to keep Radikale and Enhedslisten together.

Hopefully in the next election we'll see a centre-right majority that doesn't need to depend on DPP support.  

Also Antonio I don't understand why you're sad SD (which have an immigration policy that is more restrictive than Arizona Republicans) loose ground to left-wing parties with principles.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not going to happen, you just as well hope for the tooth fairy, either you get a left government which want a less restrictive immigration policies (through not by much), or you can get a right government which will keep selling out to DPP for a few tax cuts and a continued centralisation of power.

Less restrictive immigration policy, yeah right. The very important word in what you just said is "want". Your new PM might possibly want less restrictive immigration policy, but it's quite clear she is too afraid to challange the xenophobia, and that very little if anything will be changed on that front.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is Thoring-Schmidt just really tall or is Lökke Rasmussen really short? Looks a bit weird when they're standing next to eachother and she's so much taller.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So the new PM isn't going to change the right's restrictive immigration policies? Won't that anger some of her base. It seems kind of odd for her not to stand up to the Danish People's Party on that issue. Has the immigration issue fear mongered many people in Denmark that the Social Democrats believe they will have an electoral disaster if they attempt to change it?

People who're strongly against the immigration rules didn't vote for her and S, they voted for one of the other left-wing parties. Basicly yes, Thoring-Schmidt believe that if she push the immigration issue people will run right back to Venstre and DPP.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

BTW, Al your maps are awsome, as always.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Though of course, they've always seemed -- to me anyways -- like the least "Scandinavian" Scandinavian country.

Sweden hasn't had a female PM yet either.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The party vote maps will come in two seats (Left and Right) but will be posted at the same time. Will take longer because I have to work out the keys.

Are all of these districts the same size population?

Not the same sieze, they're local city/community council districs, so they vary quite a bit.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Which is the more powerful/influencial out of Economy Minister or Finance Minister?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Helle's poor polling numbers are nothing new. She turned out to be a failure even faster than I expected her to. Intresting to hear she's managed to loose the Red-Green Alliance though. I had read she was having problems making her coalition-partners get along, but I thought a potential government collapse was more unlikly. The prospect of new elections in Denmark already this year are exciting though.

Still doubt the alliance will actually vote down the government in the end. New elections mean the return of a burgious government, and that's not something the alliance wants.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Still doubt the alliance will actually vote down the government in the end. New elections mean the return of a burgious government, and that's not something the alliance wants.   

Doesn't the Alliance also view the current government as bourgeois?

To a certain extent I'm sure they do. But I'm sure Ö still see them as the less evil alternative.
A lot of left-winger's will call out Obama for being a worthless corporate sell-out, but they still wouldn't want to switch him for Romney.

I believe Helle is safe for now, but things are going to get a lot harder for her.

We'll have to see for how long the Social Democrats will be able to keep Radikale and Enhedslisten together.

I guess I got my question from election night answered btw.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

But left-wingers should not be too sad though. There are some breaking Danish political news we can all enjoy.

Pia Kjærsgaard is stepping down as leader of the Danish People's Party after 17 years.

Couldn't find any source in English yet, but here's a Swedish article from SvT.

EDIT: And here's a more extensive Danish article from Politiken.

(And according to the poll next to that article VBIC would get 89 seats if an election was held today, mening there would be a theoretical possibility of a centre-right government without support from the Danish People's Party) 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Very good Diouf. Although the English term for jordskredsvalg would be land-slide election not earth quake election.

Nice that there are actually things happening on the political scene in Denmark. The politics on this side of Öresund are really uneventful, with the exception of the recent death of a 24-year-old MP.