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| | |-+  BC HST referendum results expected today
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Author Topic: BC HST referendum results expected today  (Read 2856 times)
Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2011, 10:48:58 pm »
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I added dots to represent the ridings that voted BC Liberal but voted against their own party. The more dots the stronger the vote for the party.

It's quite clear that Richmond defeated the HST, with help from parts of Surrey. The other only other areas to vote incorrectly, outside the NDP ridings, were along the Alberta border, and I can't really blame them for being so close to something so evil when it comes to taxes.

I noted that in my blog; Richmond and the Peace River seem to be the populist parts of BC.
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« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2011, 10:59:00 pm »
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Victory! Hugs all around.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2011, 12:02:56 am »
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Not too big a surprise, although to be frank, I thought the yes side would win with a much bigger margin than it did.

The decision to decrease the HST to 10% by 2014 must have swayed people in the upper-middle class, who see they might actually be taxed less. This could explain the margins for NO in the Fraser Valley.

I will bet, though, that if you only counted the white vote* the results will either be razor-thin (>1% for YES) or 1-2% for NO. On the other hand South Asians would vote 55-57% YES, followed by East Asians at around 60%.

*A non-PC term to describe most British Columbians born in the province, less those born in a heavily Asian ancestry.

I noted that in my blog; Richmond and the Peace River seem to be the populist parts of BC.

Richmond is by no means populist; it is filled with Chinese who will oppose a tax hike on restaurants, hair salons and other services that was once PST exempt. They like to spend so they can save their efforts, and the HST might as well be punishing them. They will return to passivity on other issues.

I know less about the North, but I thought the primary resource industry up there will be the least damaged by the HST removal. Discontent over a Liberal government who did not visibly improve their living may also be a factor.

What is evident is the NO camp was supported by whites from the middle class upwards, while the YES camp was supported by the lower classes as well as the nouveau riche. The latter coalition would be more unstable.
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Yes....7 senate seats changed hands and we are now Spain under France. You're understanding of American politics is impressive.
Spain under Francisco Franco, you idiot.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2011, 03:24:27 am »
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What's the deal with the one northern no riding?

I hear that Christy "Dumb as a post" Clark is (...) so arrogant and full of herself that's she is absolutely convinced that (...) she's pretty.
That's hard to believe:

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Hatman
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« Reply #29 on: August 27, 2011, 09:23:10 am »
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It looks like the BC Conservatives may do well in the northern and eastern parts of BC, since these are areas where the NDP doesn't do well, but there is clear discontent with the Liberals.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2011, 10:22:11 am »
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What's the deal with the one northern no riding?

Nechako Lakes is contiguous with the regional district of Bulkley-Nechako, an area dependent on primary industries and trying to expand tourism. The mining industry quite supported the HST, and eliminating the tax will be a hit to all service industries. I imagine one of the big population centres - Smithers or Vanderhoof - voted 55% NO to flip the riding.

Compared to the rest of the North, that riding also had a lower percentage of people who signed the petition to issue a referendum in the first place.
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Yes....7 senate seats changed hands and we are now Spain under France. You're understanding of American politics is impressive.
Spain under Francisco Franco, you idiot.
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« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2011, 07:52:43 pm »
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Earl, I'd been wondering about BC Conservative potential in those ridings and agree with your conclusions. I realise that last election, they did quite well in the Okanagen, but those ridings voted No, so they may hold their noses and still vote BC Liberal, as did the other area I thought the BC Conservatives could focus their resources - around Abbotsford. Since those ridings also voted against the referendum, it may be hard for them to break into those ridings.

Foucalf, if the numbers of signatures per riding are available, any possibility of maps?
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Hatman
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« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2011, 08:11:30 pm »
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I just hope the Conservatives in BC pull off a half decent campaign. The marriage between the centre right and the far right in BC has to end at some point.  The only reason it exists is to keep the NDP out of power.  Luckily, Christy Clark is a federal Liberal and is sure to alienate the right wing of the party.

Unfortunately though, there are more divisions in the NDP than the Liberals. Hopefully Dix is able to keep the party together. I saw him at the convention, and he seems to be very competent. He's also bilingual, which is unusual in BC. (although I can name at least 2 other BC NDP politicians who are bilingual... and I dont mean in Mandarin)
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« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2011, 08:32:34 pm »
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It looks like the BC Conservatives may do well in the northern and eastern parts of BC, since these are areas where the NDP doesn't do well, but there is clear discontent with the Liberals.

The areas in the Northeast BC are more Albertan than British Columbian in their politics.  In fact I believe there was even a secessionist movement at one point to join Alberta.  It is also the only area in BC in Mountain Time and east of Continental Divide as well as looks a lot like the prairies.  In fact these two ridings both voted for the BC Reform Party in 1996 are were the only two in that election.
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Hatman
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« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2011, 09:02:05 pm »
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It looks like the BC Conservatives may do well in the northern and eastern parts of BC, since these are areas where the NDP doesn't do well, but there is clear discontent with the Liberals.

The areas in the Northeast BC are more Albertan than British Columbian in their politics.  In fact I believe there was even a secessionist movement at one point to join Alberta.  It is also the only area in BC in Mountain Time and east of Continental Divide as well as looks a lot like the prairies.  In fact these two ridings both voted for the BC Reform Party in 1996 are were the only two in that election.


Seems like easy Conservative pickups if you ask me!
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« Reply #35 on: August 30, 2011, 04:05:56 am »
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Foucalf, if the numbers of signatures per riding are available, any possibility of maps?



I hope you don't mind me using your base map?

Stats from here, although there was controversy about duplicate signatures being included in this first tally.

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Yes....7 senate seats changed hands and we are now Spain under France. You're understanding of American politics is impressive.
Spain under Francisco Franco, you idiot.
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« Reply #36 on: August 30, 2011, 06:27:40 am »
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The base maps are there to be used.

I find it surprising how few petition signatures were from Vancouver. Is there any reason for that?

Great work on that, by the way!
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #37 on: August 30, 2011, 08:57:29 am »
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I find it surprising how few petition signatures were from Vancouver. Is there any reason for that?

Once again, the easy answer is "immigrants". Newly naturalised citizens either do so for ulterior motives, or does not care enough for electoral politics. Add this to the fact that the petition is not publicised like an election is and the immigrants know next to nothing. There would also be less volunteers, so those who want to sign the petition don't know where to sign it.

I'd hesitate to speculate further. I will say that people in the more remote ridings live in cities anyways, so distance was never a big issue.


Here's the Globe's BC columnist talking about why a fall election is still a good idea. I do agree with him, if only that things will only get worse for the Liberals. They've lost the Chinese, they've really lost the Punjabis and the HST debacle has electrified politics to the point such discussion goes beyond the latest government policy. Nor has the NDP solidified support among the middle class, given how the margins against the HST has only gone down.

But it's wrong to assign so much meaning to Clark. She was voted in for being an image people trust, not by the apparatchiks had her back. These are still the most fluid times for BC politics in the past decade, and she is only now moving from stopgap to leader. It is true her presence brought Liberal support from the abyss, but whether that means she can solidify that in an election is another matter. Maybe she will have 100% support from a caucus after an election - a caucus half the size.
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Yes....7 senate seats changed hands and we are now Spain under France. You're understanding of American politics is impressive.
Spain under Francisco Franco, you idiot.
Hatman
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« Reply #38 on: August 30, 2011, 09:25:31 am »
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The Punjabis will vote NDP, but I don't see the Chinese doing so. Maybe they will vote Conservative, but I doubt it.
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« Reply #39 on: August 30, 2011, 05:51:41 pm »
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Now is a bad time to be the government of BC. There's a good chance if there is a fall election, and if the NDP wins (and they probably would) that it would be a single-term government, and that the NDP would not be returned to government in BC for quite some time to come.
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« Reply #40 on: August 30, 2011, 06:23:49 pm »
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The base maps are there to be used.

I find it surprising how few petition signatures were from Vancouver. Is there any reason for that?



To sign the petition you had to be on the voters list in the last election and still be at the same address. it is much easier to find people like that in rural areas than in cities where people are much more transient...and also where you have apartment buildings that are hard to access.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #41 on: August 30, 2011, 09:54:52 pm »
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Now is a bad time to be the government of BC. There's a good chance if there is a fall election, and if the NDP wins (and they probably would) that it would be a single-term government, and that the NDP would not be returned to government in BC for quite some time to come.

That seems to be common in BC...
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« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2011, 05:10:00 am »
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I made this
http://s2.photobucket.com/albums/y29/pellaken/?action=view&current=HST.gif
since most people don't know what the heck the HST truly is.
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Holmes
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« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2011, 07:17:51 am »
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Well yeah, that's why Horwath and Hudak aren't campaigning to get rid of the tax. Just exempt it on some services.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2011, 11:05:15 am »
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Getting rid of it is stupid, even though I would have voted to do so in BC (to stick it to the Liberals).
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« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2011, 11:16:03 am »
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I made this
http://s2.photobucket.com/albums/y29/pellaken/?action=view&current=HST.gif
since most people don't know what the heck the HST truly is.

Oh!
That is why people are hating it, in English Canada.

To be honest, your picture is false in Quebec.
We have two different taxes, but they all go to Quebec, which give its part to Canada.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2011, 04:22:30 pm »
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I made this
http://s2.photobucket.com/albums/y29/pellaken/?action=view&current=HST.gif
since most people don't know what the heck the HST truly is.

Oh!
That is why people are hating it, in English Canada.

To be honest, your picture is false in Quebec.
We have two different taxes, but they all go to Quebec, which give its part to Canada.
My pic does show this, one taxman.
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