SC-Magellan Strategies: Perry 31% Romney 20% Bachmann 14% Cain 9% Gingrich 5%

[Mr. Morden]

Magellan Strategies South Carolina primary poll:

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Magellan-South-Carolina-2012-Republican-Presidential-Primary-Survey-Release-0826114.pdf

Perry 31%
Romney 20%
Bachmann 14%
Cain 9%
Gingrich 5%
Paul 4%
Santorum 2%
Huntsman 2%

Perry does best among Tea Party supporters and worst among women.  Romney does best among voters over 65 and worst among Tea Party supporters.

favorability / unfavorability among GOP primary voters:

Perry 61 / 17%
Bachmann 58 / 27%
Romney 55 / 31%
Cain 49 / 17%
Gingrich 35 / 53%
Paul 28 / 48%
Santorum 26 / 32%
Huntsman 9 / 44%

[The Ex-Factor]

lol at Huntsman

[redcommander]

Somehow I think Huntsman should just throw in the towel. He ain't winning with ratings like that.

[Mr. Morden]

Somehow I think Huntsman should just throw in the towel. He ain't winning with ratings like that.

His goal isn't to win.  It's to take a few % away from Romney, so that the GOP nominates someone more conservative this time around, and is thus more open to nominating a moderate in 2016.

If Romney is the GOP nominee in 2012 then, win or lose, the party is not going to nominate Huntsman in 2016.  They're not going to nominate two Mormons in a row if the first one lost, and they're not going to nominate someone more moderate than Romney, because the party base will blame the loss on his being a "RINO".  (And of course, if Romney is elected prez, then Romney will be the nominee again in 2016 anyway.)

Whereas if Perry wins the nomination and loses the GE, then Huntsman may figure there's at least a chance that the party will recalibrate in the coming years, and be more amenable to someone like him.  It's a very very long shot, but it's the only chance he has.

[Bull Moose Base]

Somehow I think Huntsman should just throw in the towel. He ain't winning with ratings like that.

His goal isn't to win.  It's to take a few % away from Romney, so that the GOP nominates someone more conservative this time around, and is thus more open to nominating a moderate in 2016.

If Romney is the GOP nominee in 2012 then, win or lose, the party is not going to nominate Huntsman in 2016.  They're not going to nominate two Mormons in a row if the first one lost, and they're not going to nominate someone more moderate than Romney, because the party base will blame the loss on his being a "RINO".  (And of course, if Romney is elected prez, then Romney will be the nominee again in 2016 anyway.)

Whereas if Perry wins the nomination and loses the GE, then Huntsman may figure there's at least a chance that the party will recalibrate in the coming years, and be more amenable to someone like him.  It's a very very long shot, but it's the only chance he has.

When you say very, very long shot I'm assuming you mean the part about the party swinging back enough for him to win in 2016, not the part about Perry winning the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

When you say very, very long shot I'm assuming you mean the part about the party swinging back enough for him to win in 2016, not the part about Perry winning the nomination.

Correct.  Perry has a good chance at winning the nomination.  That's clear enough.

Huntsman faces long odds of ever being on a national ticket, either way.  He will probably never be the party's presidential or vice presidential nominee, either in 2012 or 2016 or 2020.  But to the extent that he has a chance at all, it rests on Romney not winning the nomination this time around.

[Bull Moose Base]

When you say very, very long shot I'm assuming you mean the part about the party swinging back enough for him to win in 2016, not the part about Perry winning the nomination.

Correct.  Perry has a good chance at winning the nomination.  That's clear enough.

Huntsman faces long odds of ever being on a national ticket, either way.  He will probably never be the party's presidential or vice presidential nominee, either in 2012 or 2016 or 2020.  But to the extent that he has a chance at all, it rests on Romney not winning the nomination this time around.

Yeah I agree.  With the comparisons of this field to Democrats 2004, Huntsman feels kind of like the Lieberman.  Even if the party concludes they overreached with Perry or Bachmann, I think Jeb Bush or Christie are way more likely than Huntsman to get the rebound.

[Tender Branson]

Map:

Red: Romney
Orange: Perry
Blue: Bachmann
Green: Giuliani
White: Tossup

[Niemeyerite]

Don't you think Huntsman wants to run as an Indie next year?? I was thinking about it last night... and he would be the perfect moderate hero, appealing to Conservadems, Indies and sane GOPers.

[Frodo]

Don't you think Huntsman wants to run as an Indie next year?? I was thinking about it last night... and he would be the perfect moderate hero, appealing to Conservadems, Indies and sane GOPers.

It would make sense -given his present level of support and approval ratings among GOP primary-voters, he has nothing to lose by doing it.

[Verily]

Don't you think Huntsman wants to run as an Indie next year?? I was thinking about it last night... and he would be the perfect moderate hero, appealing to Conservadems, Indies and sane GOPers.

It would make sense -given his present level of support and approval ratings among GOP primary-voters, he has nothing to lose by doing it.

He has no natural support base. The Mormons aren't going to fund his campaign, not even vindictively against Perry or Bachmann for defeating Romney, and he has no other serious base of supporters with enough funds to run a national campaign. And no one knows who he is, either.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Don't you think Huntsman wants to run as an Indie next year?? I was thinking about it last night... and he would be the perfect moderate hero, appealing to Conservadems, Indies and sane GOPers.

It would make sense -given his present level of support and approval ratings among GOP primary-voters, he has nothing to lose by doing it.

Except that he would end up acting as a spoiler for Obama by splitting the sane vote, which I'm not totally sure he wants to do.

[Niemeyerite]

Don't you think Huntsman wants to run as an Indie next year?? I was thinking about it last night... and he would be the perfect moderate hero, appealing to Conservadems, Indies and sane GOPers.

It would make sense -given his present level of support and approval ratings among GOP primary-voters, he has nothing to lose by doing it.

Except that he would end up acting as a spoiler for Obama by splitting the sane vote, which I'm not totally sure he wants to do.

He can self-fund, and I think he's really ambitious.
 he knows he has no future in today's GOP, so I think he will run as an independent or create a new moderate party to become a hero for the moderate people  and, maybe, some day, he or a member of his party will be elected president.