Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[mileslunn]

I know its 0.1% different federally, but one can apply to a judge for a recount beyond that and I suspect most judges would be pretty lenient in this case considering the difference it could make.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bramalea-Gore-Malton is looking good for NDP. Trinity-Spadina, Sudbrury and York South-Weston are real nail bitters.

Davenport too.

[Holmes]

Davenport is a lot closer than I thought it would be, but then again, Liberals doing phenomenal in the 416. Which explains Trinity-Spadina, York South-Weston, and maybe even Parkdale-High Park.

Rob Ford and Tim Hudak scared Toronto voters right back into Liberal arms, while most voters elsewhere in the province shied away from him. Still, it could've been worse for McGuinty outside of the GTA. Maybe next time.

[Holmes]

I think I'm ready to call York South-Weston for Liberals. And Liberals just might eek out Trinity-Spadina and Sudbury, barely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

[Holmes]

NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

[MaxQue]

I know its 0.1% different federally, but one can apply to a judge for a recount beyond that and I suspect most judges would be pretty lenient in this case considering the difference it could make.

In Ontario, there is an automatic recount if the difference is less than 25 votes.
A candidate or an elector can ask a recount, but they have to pay a deposit of 200$, which is refunded if an error is found.

[Holmes]

Maybe it's time for Toronto to get a Liberal mayor, mmk.

[mileslunn]

NDP has won Bramalea-Gore-Malton so big win there.  They also won Kenora-Rainy River and Essex which went Conservative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

CBC site. Who also declare Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the NDP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

First NDP, or even CCF, win in Peel. Ever. I'll look up if the Progressives ever won here.

[Holmes]

NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

CBC site. Who also declare Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the NDP.

I thought so, so I went there, thanks. York South-Weston getting really close too. Hoping Sudbury's not out of reach, but with 17 polls left, I dunno...

edit: actually YSW going more towards Liberals, so oh well.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the results now, I doubt we will know for sure if it is a minority or majority for a few days.  Also with McGuinty possibly being a seat or two off, do you think he may bribe a few opposition members with cabinet posts to cross the floor as this would give him a majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No, Peel county has never elected an NDPer, at Provincial or Federal level, since 1867. This includes the NDP, CCF, Progressives, etc.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Electionprediction.org was pretty close to spot on of all prediction sites.  They messed up badly on the federal election but did well here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell isn't over either.

[Holmes]

No, Peel county has never elected an NDPer, at Provincial or Federal level, since 1867. This includes the NDP, CCF, Progressives, etc.

So while it's great that Singh has been elected, and we know that it wasn't Layton coattails, there's still an uphill battle for the NDP in that area. But, now there's a blueprint. I know that Singh worked really hard.

[MaxQue]

The NDP lead in Trinity-Spanida is still growing.

850 votes, now.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Undecided ridings with leads, seconds

Sudbury - Lib/NDP
Perth - PC/Lib
Niagara - Lib/PC
Kit Cen - Lib/PC
York S W - Lib/NDP
Northum - PC/Lib
Davenp - NDP/Lib
TriSpa - NDP/Lib

Decided
Lib - 49
PC - 35
NDP - 15

[Kevinstat]

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell isn't over either.

It is now, according to the CBC

[MaxQue]

CBC called Trinity-Spadina for NDP. They now have a 1100 vote lead.

[MaxQue]

I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

[mileslunn]

I believe Perth-Wellington was seen as one of the few safe Liberal ridings in rural Southwestern Ontario so it looks like the Liberals really took a hit in rural Ontario, but the Tory's failure to gain in the GTA is their weakness.  I hope the Liberals hold Niagara Falls though as Kim Craitor is a good MP.  Surprised how well the NDP is doing there though as federally there weren't much of a factor.  I also hope Kim Craitor re-introduces his private members bill on alcohol in convenience store though, but thats a side issue.

[mileslunn]

I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

  Think they might be able to bribe any opposition members to cross the floor as this would give them a majority.  They only need to fine one and I am sure there is at least one or two opportunists in the opposition.

[Kevinstat]

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

Which they didn't.  Called for NDP.