Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[MaxQue]

I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

 Think they might be able to bribe any opposition members to cross the floor as this would give them a majority.  They only need to fine one and I am sure there is at least one or two opportunists in the opposition.

The problem is old MLAs, as we saw in the tight government in New Brunswick.
Some could threaten to go independant if they don't have funding/position/whatever.

Well, I noticed than Perth-Wellington or Nomtherberland-Quinte West would do the job, too. Less probable, since early is usually balanced between PC and Liberals.

[Kevinstat]

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

Which they didn't.  Called for NDP.

Still two seats uncalled with PCs leading and Liberals second, though.  And four with Liberals leading, two each with the PCs and NDP in 2nd.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Smelling more and more like a Minority

[mileslunn]

Smelling more and more like a Minority

Could also change with a few by-elections, although those don't usually tend to favour governments.  Nonetheless a good ground organization can help pick them up, after all the federal Tories have gained seats in by-elections while never lost one and having a lower voter turnout makes ground organization even more important.  Also does anyone believe McGuinty can buy off any opposition members to cross the floor.  And what about the speaker.  I believe an opposition speaker would give McGuinty half the seats and the speaker in a tie vote by parliamentary tradition always votes whichever way keeps debate going, thus would vote to keep the government afloat.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I cant see the Tories or NDP allowing that. The NDP in particular would want to be able to exercise their newfound power.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Unlikely the NDP can find 500 extra votes for them over the Liberals in the last poll in Sudbury

[Kevinstat]

Liberals up by 518 votes in Sudbury with one poll outstanding, but CBC still hasn't called it yet.  Is there any realistic chance of the NDP making up that margin in one poll?

Teddy already kind of answered my question I see.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The lead in Perth for the Tories is also too big IMO.

Same with YSW.

The other ridings *should* stay as they are.

[mileslunn]

With only one poll left, I would be surprised if the Liberals take Perth-Wellington as the gap is over 500 votes, so likes like a Tory pickup to me.  Niagara Falls and Northumberland-Quinte West too close too call.

[Kevinstat]

Liberals now "leading" in Sudbury with 431 of 431 precincts in. 

[Kevinstat]

Liberals now "leading" in Sudbury with 431 of 431 precincts in. 

Changed to elected now.  Final margin 501 votes.

[MaxQue]

Strange. The tightest seat has a lead of 440 votes.

No recount, apparently.

[Hash]

Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!

You won a minority

[mileslunn]

Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!

You won a minority

  Not for sure, but still I don't think any party had an outstanding result, but no party had an absolute disaster either.  Not like the Liberals and Bloc federally, but nothing outstanding like the NDP or Conservatives federally.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

CBC PROJECTS LIBERAL MINORITY

[Kevinstat]

Kitchener Centre seems to have the greatest chance now of flipping from the current (Liberal) lead (over PC), based on the margin and the number of precincts outstanding.

[mileslunn]

Tories just took both Northumberland-Quinte West and Perth-Wellington, so no outstanding seats there.  Only three not declared, all which the Liberals are leading in, thus that means a majority is not possible at this point.

[Kevinstat]

York South-Weston called for Liberals.  NDP will have 17 seats.  Remaining 2 seats between Grits and Tories.

[mileslunn]

Unless there is a defection from an opposition member, it looks like a minority.  Nonetheless, you only need two opposition members to abstain to pass any bill thus as long as the Liberals don't do anything really unpopular, they can almost rule like a majority.  Also even his brother David McGuinty has stated it was a minority.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Forum Research was pretty close to the mark in their final poll.

[mileslunn]

With one poll to go and a 300 vote lead, it looks like the Liberals will take Kitchener Centre.

[MaxQue]

Kitchener Centre was called for Liberals.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Not a bad night, all told. Some scary moments for the NDP when they seemed like they were going to lose Trinity-Spadina, but overall I think with a Liberal minority, and an expanded NDP caucus, the Liberals will be able to keep government out of PC hands and the NDP will get occasional concessions and policy victory through the Liberal's weakened strength in the legislature.

That's not a bad deal.

Some NDP supports on this forum have been a little spoiled lately. From either the NDP surge to Opposition in May and the comeback record-breaking victory in Manitoba. Purely for a result for the Ontario NDP, this is good.

[Hatman 🍁]

I got 92% of the ridings correct (same as EP); 308 only got 85% correct