Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[lilTommy]

I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

So did i... and i full support killing the Catholic school board, for both moral and financial reasons.

With the NDP rising in pretty much every poll we have seen, why would we not be leading in Ottawa centre? have we seen regional numbers that would suggest thats a lost race? I could see the strategic voting being played out in Ottawa as well since the tories can pick up urban seats there.

[mileslunn]

The newspaper endorsements are now in.  The National Post endorsed the PCs as expected, while the Toronto Star endorsed the Liberals.  This is really no surprise as they only endorse NDP if they have a better chance at beating the Tories, while never the Tories.  The Globe and Mail also endorsed the Liberals.  I usually find them the least biased as they have endorsed both the Tories and Liberals equally, after all they endorsed Harper in the last three elections, but the Liberals in 2000 and 2004.  They only endorsed the NDP once during the 1991 BC election so not exactly an NDP friendly paper.  Anyone know of other endorsements as well as endorsements for other provinces?

[Holmes]

Just voted for Gilles Bisson. Hoping for a win in Ottawa-Center, Hatman!

[Hashemite]

The Citizen endorsed that waste of sperm Lister. How painful and stupid. But it's hard for me to take a paper that also endorses the far-right maniac Hillier seriously.

[Californian Tony]

New Nanos. I believe they're gonna be releasing one every night until Thursday.

Lib - 36.5% (-1.5)
PC - 34.0% (-1.3)
NDP - 26.8% (+2.2)
Green - 1.9% (+0.1)

Movin' on up.

Well, those numbers are quite encouraging. I don't know what other pollsters say, but it looks like Hudak is anything but assured to win a plurality.

[lilTommy]

I know endorsements don't necessarily mean anything, but Desmon Tutu just endrosed Anil Nadoo In Ottawa Centre? who knew eh!

http://www.icontact-archive.com/yiOThMH64xlcbGhSe3uwC-RAQ4Lq6EPD?w=1

[Hatman]

I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

So?

I know endorsements don't necessarily mean anything, but Desmon Tutu just endrosed Anil Nadoo In Ottawa Centre? who knew eh!

http://www.icontact-archive.com/yiOThMH64xlcbGhSe3uwC-RAQ4Lq6EPD?w=1

Yeah, it's all the buzz in the campaign office.


By the way, some of the polls out today show a bit of a dip in the NDP vote, so Im a bit concerned.

[lilTommy]

what do those polls look like then?

[Hashemite]

Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.

[You kip if you want to...]

Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

[Hashemite]

Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos has always been weird with the Greens, most recently in May. I believe they don't prompt them by name, which is rather stupid and ends up giving them extremely low numbers. Something between 3 and 6% seems accurate for the Greens this year, maybe nearer to the high range of that given that they've increased their support a tad since the start of the campaign. Still off the 2007 high, which is to be expected in such a closely-fought polarized campaign.

[lilTommy]

Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.

Thaty EKOS poll looks out of whack, no one has had the Liberals that high or the NDP that low in a good while... i will wait to see more polls before i believe that one.

The tories are starting to be (ok get?) desperate, Hudak is full supporting a homophobic and rather hateful piece of literature; while the liberals sound childish and stubborn by being so emphatic about not working with anyone if they don't win... The NDP coming off the high of basically winning a winnerless leaders debate and with all the momentum i doubt they would have dropped below 25%

[mileslunn]

Sun Media endorsed no one.  The Tories ought not like that as they usually are some of the biggest Tory cheerleaders.  Also the Windsor Star who usually endorses the Tories endorsed the Liberals.  Not that this totally matters what it comes to results but always interesting nonetheless.

The Ekos and Nanos poll don't seem to jibe well so hopefully with the next set of polls we can get a better idea which one is more accurate.  As for the NDP falling back, I suspect Hudak and McGuinty's rejection of any coalition may hurt them as few actually believe they can win outright so if they cannot influence either party it kind of defeats the point of voting for them.  Also due to economic turmoil I think many would rather have a majority government than minority government so we can have some stability.  Still we shall see on election night how things turn out.  I think a majority for either party is still possible but they need a strong last minute swing in their favour, more importantly one party needs to pull out in front in the 905 belt and whichever one can do this will be able to win a majority.

[mileslunn]

The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.

It's true, convenience stores here have to compete with their Quebec counterparts who can sell liquor. In fact, with the tax difference, many people go to Quebec anyways for booze.

There are other parts of the platform I oppose, but that's one of them. I suppose not wanting to do away with the Catholic school board is another big issue, but it's not been brought up this campaign.

I disagree with the Catholic school position as well.  John Tory was raked rightfully so for his, so it seems hypocritical to have Catholic schools and no other religious schools.  Much of this though is historical as historically the public system was a de facto Protestant school so there was a need for a Catholic system for the minority who were not Protestants.  As for alcohol in convenience stores, I support allowing beer and wine and other low alcoholic beverages (Under 20% alcohol), but not hard liquor (although I have no objection to private stores selling it if they only sell alcoholic beverages).  Much of the reason for lack of change here is the unions want to protect their jobs, you have groups like MADD who have become neo-prohibitionist rather than anti-drunk driving as well as some social conservatives on the right still see alcohol consumption as evil and want to restrict it heavily.  Off course I suspect someone living in Ottawa would more likely favour it than elsewhere since its already done in Quebec.  I am not a member of any party, but I support and oppose elements of all of them.  I support the HST, but oppose McGuinty's green energy plan.  Likewise I find Ontarioans often fearful of change, so it is pretty easy to scare people of any change no matter what the topic is.  Ontarioans and Canadians tend to be rather cautious in general, otherwise stick with what we know rather than what we don't.

[DL]

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos doesn't prompt ANY party names at all - he asks an open ended question "Which party will you  vote for?" without reading any list of party names. Ekos reads all party names since people have to punch a number on their keypad. Needless to say when you have a party like the Greens who have no campaign, no leader, no money, no ads...but a brand time that has a lot of "social desirability" - if you read it as a choice - you will get a big overestimate for them.

In the federal election the Greens got less than 4% in Ontario and believe me Elizabeth May was getting saturation publicity compared to the no-name Ontario Green leader whose name escapes me. They will get about 2.5% of the vote when the dust settles.

[mileslunn]

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos doesn't prompt ANY party names at all - he asks an open ended question "Which party will you  vote for?" without reading any list of party names. Ekos reads all party names since people have to punch a number on their keypad. Needless to say when you have a party like the Greens who have no campaign, no leader, no money, no ads...but a brand time that has a lot of "social desirability" - if you read it as a choice - you will get a big overestimate for them.

In the federal election the Greens got less than 4% in Ontario and believe me Elizabeth May was getting saturation publicity compared to the no-name Ontario Green leader whose name escapes me. They will get about 2.5% of the vote when the dust settles.

  I suspect Nanos is closer to what the Greens will actually get.  They have been virtually invisible and when that happens usually they don't do to well.

[Holmes]

New Forum poll has NDP ahead in Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. But behind in both Windsor districts. Of course, they're riding polls, but the results are better than Forum's last riding polls.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1064105--poll-reinforces-minority-prediction

[Hatman]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

[Holmes]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

[Hatman]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

Maybe, but it seems like nothing will convince those idiots. (sorry, it's morning and I'm running on very little sleep)

[lilTommy]

Have things really stalled that much in Ottawa Centre?

They also didn't cover London-Fanshawe, yet looked at both LNC and LW?

[President Marokai]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

Maybe, but it seems like nothing will convince those idiots. (sorry, it's morning and I'm running on very little sleep)

I enjoy grumpy Earl!

[Hashemite]

They also confirm that the original "close race" in O-South was wrong, given that the Liberals are now up 7% there in this new poll. Gives me hope as to Orleans. I don't think we're trailing by 6, though we might be trailing because of all this bullsh**t created by our two useless sh**thead-councillors (Monette and Bloess) who are complaining about McNeely.

[Hatman]

Have things really stalled that much in Ottawa Centre?

They also didn't cover London-Fanshawe, yet looked at both LNC and LW?

because London-Fanshawe is in the bag for the NDP

[lilTommy]

Toda from Ekos Oct 2-3

All Voters: Lib 39.1%, PC 29.1%, NDP 24.5%, Green 6.0%, Others 1.4%

Likely Voters: Lib 39.6%, PC 31.9%, NDP 22.1%, Green 5.3%, Others 1.0%

So i'm comfortable now saying there is proof to counter strategic voting, the tories are only 5 points ahead of the NDP... they blew this election, it was theres to lose and it looks lost. The NDP vote is TO seems very low, that must include Scar/Etob/NY... the NDP need to be pushing the only vote that will produce change is the NDP but are people still dumb enough to believe they need to vote Liberal to stop the tories (Hartman in Ottawa Centre would probably say yes!)

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-10-04.pdf