Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman]

Andrew Lister is really stepping up his game. He's littered Innes with a string of 7-8 huge signs and now he's plastered them with stuff like "the Ottawa sh**tizen endorses" or "Rainer Bloess endorses". I'm very happy I didn't vote for Bloess in the last local elections, given how much of a useless rightie scumbag he is.

Funny how Bloess and Monette  used to be Liberals.

[Hashemite]

Andrew Lister is really stepping up his game. He's littered Innes with a string of 7-8 huge signs and now he's plastered them with stuff like "the Ottawa sh**tizen endorses" or "Rainer Bloess endorses". I'm very happy I didn't vote for Bloess in the last local elections, given how much of a useless rightie scumbag he is.

Funny how Bloess and Monette  used to be Liberals.

Hell, Bloess even ran for the federal Liberal nomination in 2009 or something!

[Holmes]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%

Angus-Reid now saying 37% Lib, 33% PC, 26% NDP. Weird how they'd fit in one more one-day poll before the election, but maybe they didn't wanna be the odd ones out.

[Hashemite]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%

Angus-Reid now saying 37% Lib, 33% PC, 26% NDP. Weird how they'd fit in one more one-day poll before the election, but maybe they didn't wanna be the odd ones out.

Interesting. Changing their numbers this quickly is a bit ARG-like or something.

[Sibboleth]

Polling companies often close ranks like this. Remember, they are (first and foremost) companies.

[Holmes]

Alright, here are the ridings I expect the NDP to win. Bolded will be squeakers, could go either way.

Timmins-James Bay
Timiskaming-Cochrane
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kenora-Rainy River
London-Fanshawe
Welland
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Toronto-Danforth
Trinity-Spadina
Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
York South-Weston
Windsor West
Ottawa Centre
Bramalea-Gore-Malton

And they'll probably be close in these, but not close enough.

Scarborough Southwest
Oshawa
Windsor-Tecumseh
Sarnia-Lambton
Essex

Popular vote will be 26% +/- .5%

[Holmes]

Angus-Reid says NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf

l o l.

[Hatman]

Angus-Reid says NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf

l o l.

lolwut

epic fail.

[Senator MaxQue]

Bad crosstab.

[Hatman]

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

[mileslunn]

I haven't done a seat by seat analysis, but my guess is Liberals barely squeak out a majority, PCs in the mid to upper 30s and NDP 15-20 seats.

[Hatman]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

[Smid]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

I went from 21 unique views on a regular day 70 or so during the election, to 35,000 on e-day. Expect something similar.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

[lilTommy]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Can you give some insight into why Kenora-Rainy River will flip to the tories? I know Howard is not running again and personal popularity was a big factor... but have there been polls or have we seen a big swing? Federally it went Tory yes, but the tories are bleeding support right now (ok its more like a paper cut, but they are stuck in the mid-30s) But the NDP is up... probably not 78% up but still i would expect (hope!) to be able to retain a held seat like with Welland? Plus the huge Manitoba victory has to have some spill as this area of ontario has always been more closely linked to Manitoba then the rest of ontario. Just wondering about the logic... all in all i think the NDP will pull in around 18-22 depending on how the night goes (22 with them winning KRR, OC, WW, SSW)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Did you mistake federal and provincial numbers?

[Hatman]

I'm not the only one who thinks Kenora will go Tory. Look at electionpredictions.org. The seat is vacant, and the NDP has been having trouble winning it federally. I am fairly confident it will go Conservative.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

It is more then likely I have overestimated the Tories, as a last minute surge to the Liberals will make some of my predictions wrong. I guess I will buy you a coffee if the Tories get below 36, although I doubt it will be that bad of a night for them.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

I went from 21 unique views on a regular day 70 or so during the election, to 35,000 on e-day. Expect something similar.

I averaged 100-200 before the election, 300-500 during the campaign, and the last couple of days have been 1000+. I don't see me getting 35,000 today, but then again it's just a provincial election.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

Liberals will do better in ridings like Brampton West and Mississauga South thanks to a smaller NDP vote, yes. As for Brant, it is one seat I am a bit hesitant on; if I am wrong about one riding it will be Brant (and hopefully Ottawa Centre! )

[lilTommy]

I'm not the only one who thinks Kenora will go Tory. Look at electionpredictions.org. The seat is vacant, and the NDP has been having trouble winning it federally. I am fairly confident it will go Conservative.

True, but we have to remember that Federally all the northern ridings are different... so the ON KRR contains well Rainy River/Fort Frances which has a more left, labour bend/tradition to it. Howard has endorsed Sarah Campbell so its not like hes out of the picture... it hink it will be close, but i'm going to say the NDP will hold it, if only by the smallest margin, about 1% or so.

I'm seeing some predictions as high as 30seats for the NDP... my range is closer to 18-22

[Hatman]

Krago did the redistribution based on provincial ridings, and Kenora-RR still would've gone Tory.

[lilTommy]

Krago did the redistribution based on provincial ridings, and Kenora-RR still would've gone Tory.

Well thats disapointing... with how well the party is expecting to do, to lose the old leaders seat, thats gona sting.. plus it would have been nice to have another women in caucus.
I heard there was infighting after the nomination? anything on that?

[Sibboleth]

Remember that federally Kenora has an incumbent as well. One that seems to be pretty popular, given his electoral record.

[Hatman]

Remember that federally Kenora has an incumbent as well. One that seems to be pretty popular, given his electoral record.

Right, but he had to defeat an incumbent to win in 2008.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO

[Hatman]

Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO

Those seats have Liberal incumbents. Kenora-RR has no incumbent.

It's why Windsor West *should* be going NDP today, instead the candidate there ed things up royally, and will probably lose.