Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I deleted the original so again it could be an error. There are only 5 ridings in there so you guys could recalc it

[Smid]

I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12%.

The Liberal and PC results there seem to have flipped. Big swing against them in Sudbury, too, but they just managed to hang on. I was somewhat surprised by the swings in Thunder Bay. The two seats seem very unlike the rest of Northern Ontario.

[Holmes]

I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12%.

The Liberal and PC results there seem to have flipped. Big swing against them in Sudbury, too, but they just managed to hang on. I was somewhat surprised by the swings in Thunder Bay. The two seats seem very unlike the rest of Northern Ontario.

Hmm. Well, I don't know too much about Thunder Bay, but I do know that, when Bartolucci retires, Liberals might fall to distant second, or even third, like it is federally. If he doesn't retire for the next election, he'll have another battle. As for Timmins-James Bay, Xstrata closing was probably the straw that broke the Liberal camel's back. Liberals ed up in Northern Ontario. The three ridings they held onto were only because of the incumbents, and that's it. They're nearing extinction.

I'm interested to know, and I wonder if I'll ever find out, exactly where the Conservative vote is coming from here. I know Timmins is "trending"(for lack of a better word) Conservative, but I think it's too simple to say the Liberal vote is switching Conservative. I mean, after all, the Liberal candidate in the federal election here was campaigning as the "progressive voice for the north". Silly though, to frame yourself like that against Charlie Angus of all people.

[Smid]

The only two seats which swung heavily against the NDP were seats with retiring members.

No green on the Greens map...

[Hatman]

Thunder Bay = strange. Poor campaigns there, I guess.

Holmes, I think it's just right wing Liberals switching to the Tories.

[Smid]

2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Liberal Vote



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Progressive Conservative Vote



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - NDP Vote



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Greens Vote

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Dufferin Caledon has no business being Green, but it's been among the top few Greenist ridings for a decade

[The Head Beagle]

Dufferin Caledon has no business being Green, but it's been among the top few Greenist ridings for a decade

What? It's hilly, and thus beautiful but unsuitable for big industrial farming, unlike the flat and fertile areas in all other directions, and so in addition to the local rednecks, it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets in inner Toronto (and Guelph), or by selling artisanal pottery and that sort of thing to people from north Toronto who come for the weekend and stay in inns in restored old mills in Ye Olde Victorian Towns, and priority number one for the whole operation is making sure suburbia doesn't come north from Brampton.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets

Which does not fit in anywhere else in Rural ontario

[Smid]

What Linus said makes sense, plus I dare say there may be a bit of what we call (over here - don't know if the term is used overseas) tree-change retirees (contrasting with seachange retirees). I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.

This is a contradiction

[The Head Beagle]

it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets

Which does not fit in anywhere else in Rural ontario

Is this supposed to be sarcastic? In almost all of rural Ontario the overwhelming majority of farms use modern industrial agriculture and sell to food processors rather than directly to the general public, even if they are "family farms" in the sense that the owners live and work on the farm. The main exception is the old order Mennonite country north and west of Waterloo, but obviously here the politics are a bit different.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I don't think any of you have any reason to lie to me, but when I picture "rural" canadians, I don't picture "intelligent" or "caring" or "environmentalist" or "smart" or "modern", and you'll guys need to prove to me otherwise.

[Holmes]

Now, now. People who live in rural areas aren't like some separate species from people who live in the cities.

[Smid]

I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.

This is a contradiction

How is it a contradiction? People don't retire in Canada? Or when they retire, they only ever live in the same area they lived before they retired? If you hadn't noticed, people from New York retire to Florida, these are seachange retirees. Perhaps people retiring to a quiet, rural setting is unique to Australia (or at least does not happen in the US and Canada) but it's certainly no contradiction to expect you to recognise a particular demographic, even if you use a different term to describe them.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Now, now. People who live in rural areas aren't like some separate species from people who live in the cities.

Just about as close as you can get.

[Sibboleth]

Teddy, you're from PEI for God's sake. Which makes you, by definition, about eighty times more hickish than anyone from rural Ontario, even if you now live in Toronto...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Exactly. People in rural areas in Atlantic Canada in general don't support insane right-wing insane parties that are insane and insane.

[Holmes]

I was under the impression that New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador both have majority PC governments.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

PC yes.

[Hatman]

Remarkable how SW Ontario has become such a wasteland for the Liberals, considering that was once their base.

[adma]

Remember: what ought to make even less sense than the Greens in Duff-Cal are (at least until this year's elections) the Greens in Grey-Bruce-OS...

[Vasall des Midas]

I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.

This is a contradiction

How is it a contradiction? People don't retire in Canada? Or when they retire, they only ever live in the same area they lived before they retired? If you hadn't noticed, people from New York retire to Florida, these are seachange retirees. Perhaps people retiring to a quiet, rural setting is unique to Australia (or at least does not happen in the US and Canada) but it's certainly no contradiction to expect you to recognise a particular demographic, even if you use a different term to describe them.

No one (of IQ>60) who wants to preserve a particular environment retires to it from elsewhere.

[Sibboleth]

Remember: what ought to make even less sense than the Greens in Duff-Cal are (at least until this year's elections) the Greens in Grey-Bruce-OS...

What was the reason for that anyway? Obviously that was near where (or actually where?) there was that whole Walkerton unpleasantness, but environmental/public health disaster doesn't usually lead on so neatly to Greenie success.

[Sibboleth]

Suppose it's also interesting that you have consistently higher Greenie percentages on the north side of the Oak Ridges Moraine (a pattern that Dufferin-Caledon fits in with, obviously).