Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[RogueBeaver]

Grits are repeating their federal counterparts' mistake of trying to out-left the NDP, while the NDP dashes for the centre-left. Hudak taking a leaf from the Dewey/Hillary school of electioneering.

My prediction: Hudak wins a smaller majority than Dad has now. Unsure about NDP surge. Harriscare and Raescare will be prominent.

[RogueBeaver]

Only one debate? WTF is up with that?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/ontario-should-have-more-than-one-debate-but-it-wont/article2148120/

[RogueBeaver]

Rae wants to campaign with McGuinty. That'll make a very nice PC attack ad.

[RogueBeaver]

Not so much for his defection as destroying their chances of usurping the Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits to unveil their platform tomorrow. "Four More Years" probably summarizes it in a sentence.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/09/02/liberals-unveil-platform.html

[RogueBeaver]

Dad: There is no deficit.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario/dalton-mcguinty-makes-electoral-pitch-to-women-seniors-new-canadians/article2153430/

[RogueBeaver]

What do you guys think the impact will be of McGuinty's $10,000 tax credit for hiring an immigrant.  While one can argue whether it is a good or bad policy, this almost seems like a John Tory moment.  If I were McGuinty I would find a way to get this off the front page ASAP before the Tories can capitalize on it.

I think Walkom summed it up well in his column today, even if I disagree with his conclusion. Of all the things to criticize in McGuinty's record, this would be pretty far down my list.

[RogueBeaver]

I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

If you believe 308, McGuinty might lose his own riding. Hopefully Dad's done.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting how much lower the PCs are provincially than what they got in many of the ridings in the last federal election.  Is this because Tim Hudak is not catching on, or Michael Ignatieff was far more disliked than McGuinty, or perhaps is a just a case of many sticking with the devil they know rather than the one they don't.  Off course we will have to see what the actual results are on election day as most polls going into the final days of the federal election put the federal Tories at 38-41% which is only slightly higher than what the PCs are at now provincially.  No poll after Good Friday put the Tories even within the margin of error of what they actually got in Ontario (44.4%).

I think the lesson from May is that the polls will only clue in to the final trend at the last minute, and even then decently underestimate the winner's margin. OLP's ground game is much better than the LPC's, they have a seasoned veteran as their leader, and the opposition is making a series of unforced errors. McGuinty is as well- copying the Iggy strategy of saying the NDP is too left for one thing.

[RogueBeaver]

One thing's for certain: unless Hudak wins a majority, Dad will still be premier.

[RogueBeaver]

He can secure NDP support for his legislative agenda, so why not? Right now McGuinty will be barely short, just as Pearson was in the 1960s federally.

[RogueBeaver]

So I was right about the Coalition.

[RogueBeaver]

The Manitoba NDP was able to rack up very small wins in very many ridings. The Ontario Liberals are positioned to do something similar. A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.

And anything less than a PC majority means another McGuinty term. 2007 all over again.