Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

Should be fun. Im going to be getting paid to do some database for the Ottawa Centre campaign. Ive never been paid during a campaign before, and Ive never worked on a winning campaign before (except phoning for Dewar in the summer of 2005)

[Hatman 🍁]

Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

Interesting how the Toronto Star poll said it was a 3 way race with the NDP further behind, while the National Post had the NDP doing better, but completely ignores them in the headline and says it's not a 3 way race yet. (although, those numbers are suggest otherwise)

[Hatman 🍁]

Expect a new projection this evening based on the new poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory minority projected with the NDP at 19 seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Nanos poll:

PC: 35 (-7)
Lib: 32 (-6)
NDP: 23 (+7)
Grn: 4 (+1)

Im not sure where the other 6% went

Undecideds are at 8% (down 8%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Much like the Harper minority governments, a Hudak minority government I can handle, and *prefer* over a McGuinty government. I just hope it doesn't lead to a Hudak majority 5 years from now, but rather an NDP government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

Im going to wait for more polls to come in. They will begin to flow in, and I don't have the time to do a projection every day, unfortunately. (I'm not using any computer programs, each riding is done individually)

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh Lewis, that's what my blog is for!

Note to the haters: I still prefer a Liberal majority over a Tory majority, obviously.  With a Tory minority, we could see a Liberal+NDP coalition developed which is almost the best option!

[Hatman 🍁]

I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

If you believe 308, McGuinty might lose his own riding. Hopefully Dad's done.

Not a chance. Check my site!

[Hatman 🍁]

Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

My past Ontario predictions speak for themselves (last provincial and last 2 federal elections I got a better % of seats correct than electionpredictions.org)

[Hatman 🍁]

lololol: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/09/07/ontario-ndp-weisleder-dropped.html

[Hatman 🍁]

That sort of thing in the middle of a campaign is never good news. It might be damage control, but it's not good news.

What? It's great news. I guess you don't know who Barry Weisleder is! We want to distance the hell out of him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

My past Ontario predictions speak for themselves (last provincial and last 2 federal elections I got a better % of seats correct than electionpredictions.org)

A dog with a pen could beat EP

Perhaps in the last federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Harris-Decima poll with bizarre numbers:

Lib: 40
PC: 29 (!)
NDP: 24
Grn: 6

Does not compute.  I am definitely holding off on making another Ontario prediction for a while.

[Hatman 🍁]

Harris-Decima poll with bizarre numbers:

Lib: 40
PC: 29 (!)
NDP: 24
Grn: 6

Does not compute.  I am definitely holding off on making another Ontario prediction for a while.

Well, the numbers are very normal, to me. It is the party labels which are bizarre.

At this point, I'd be just as surprised if the numbers were switched.

I do get the sense that a lot of people think Hudak=Harris, but that would mean the NDP numbers should be lower. I do know from my campaign job though that a lot of people are scared of vote splitting. (Incredibly odd considering the Tories have no shot in Ottawa Centre... I just want to smack some people...)

[Hatman 🍁]

That sort of thing in the middle of a campaign is never good news. It might be damage control, but it's not good news.

What? It's great news. I guess you don't know who Barry Weisleder is! We want to distance the hell out of him.

I am dimly aware. But there's a difference between him not selected anywhere, and him being deselected by some hard-to-judge bureaucratic process in the middle of the campaign. The latter probably is a better reminder of his existence than if he just silently ran in some unwinnable riding.

He should have been vetted prior to being nominated. "Sorry, your views don't match those of the party, so you can't run."

[Hatman 🍁]

The easiest solution would be to just expel him, obviously.

Keep your friends close of you, and your ennemies even closer.
If expelled, he would just create his own party.

I think we've been trying to get him to do that. It's not like he has many followers.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP vote is down slightly, but very interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Im comparing polling firms. The NDP was at 26% in one poll last week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Ontario projection!

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction_13.html

Liberals on the cusp of a majority!

[Hatman 🍁]

I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just when we thought the Liberals were winning Abacus releases their first poll:

PC: 41
Lib: 32
NDP: 20
Grn: 6
 
But then again, Abacus is the official pollster for the Sun, so I there may be bias It's hard to believe their CEO used to be a New Democrat.

[Hatman 🍁]

What did the NDP get federally in Toronto? And the other parties?

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting!

By the way, I got my first ever robo poll call today. Not sure who it was for. But whoever it was, the pronounced our candidate's name wrong.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canvassing tomorrow!

Hopefully in Orleans and nowhere close to here!