If the Democrats win 49 states...

[nclib]

I think Mississippi would be one of the last, if not the last, to go Democratic, even though it was only the 15th most Republican in 2004.

In a landslide Democratic election, the increase in blacks voting Democratic would be small (it is already close to 100%). And a high proportion of Democrats in Mississippi are black.

[Alcon]

1. Utah
2. Idaho
3. Alaska
4. Mississippi
5. Alabama

[A18]

Alaska

[nclib]

I think Mississippi would be one of the last, if not the last, to go Democratic, even though it was only the 15th most Republican in 2004.

In a landslide Democratic election, the increase in blacks voting Democratic would be small (it is already close to 100%). And a high proportion of Democrats in Mississippi are black.

I'd still say Utah, but Mississippi would be 2nd.

[King]

Utah, the state that voted over 70% for Bush...

[J.R. Brown]

I chose Utah.

[7,052,770]

Utah probably, unless the candidate was from one of those states.
It'd be really hard for a Dem to win MS, but even harder on UT, I think.

[Colin]

1.Utah
2.Idaho
3.Wyoming
4. Alaska
5. Alabama

But I highly doubt a Democrat would win 49 states unless they basically run as a conservative and theirs no liberal candidate running.

[Keystone Phil]

Either Utah or Idaho. I'm not sure which one.

[True Democrat]

Utah
Idaho
Nebraska
Alabama
Oklahoma

[George W. Hobbes]

Utah, unless Sen. Callahan is running

[Hitchabrut]

Utah

[ilikeverin]

Utah

[CheeseWhiz]

I’d also say Utah...  But I’d have to know the candidates, what Dem do you think could win 49 states?  What Rep do you think could win only one state?

If I knew the answer to these questions, I could make a map & pie-charts

[King]

I’d also say Utah...  But I’d have to know the candidates, what Dem do you think could win 49 states?  What Rep do you think could win only one state?

If I knew the answer to these questions, I could make a map & pie-charts

Evan Bayh v. Pat Buchanan

[CheeseWhiz]

Sorry it took me so long, I forgot about this one.

Well, I don’t really know… but here's my best guess.  Tell me if anything looks unrealistic.

                                      Pat Buchanan vs. Evan Bayh

[minionofmidas]

That might happen if the Republican candidate is a Mormon and it has just turned out that the LDS have a secret stockpile of nukes and have sold a few of them to Osama Bin Laden.

Seriously though, it's not really possible to answer the question. Reps winning only one state is so unlikely that Reps winning only Utah is not really that much more likely, in absolute terms, than Reps winning only Rhode Island.

[Josh]

I'd have to say either Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, or Idaho.  Not sure which, though.  This is such an unlikely scenario (sadly...) that it's hard to just pick one state.

[CheeseWhiz]

I forgot to mention that the map is going on King's suggestion of Pat Buchanan vs. Evan Bayh.  I've added that information to my map post.

[Bono]

Sorry it took me so long, I forgot about this one.

Well, I don’t really know… but here's my best guess.  Tell me if anything looks unrealistic.

                                      Pat Buchanan vs. Evan Bayh

Why would Buchanan lose his home town of DC.

[skybridge]

DC is the most solidly Democratic part of the country. Ever since they gained the right to vote for president in 1964 they haven't had less than an 80% Democratic vote.

[Gustaf]

It wouldn't happen, since there's no obvious reason why 1 of the conservative states would go GOP and none of the others. So we would be talking about a moderate Dem up against a failed social libertarian perhaps? Then what, Alaska is most likely to be left?

[Alcon]

DC is the most solidly Democratic part of the country. Ever since they gained the right to vote for president in 1964 they haven't had less than an 80% Democratic vote.

He was joking.

Anyway, I think it is worth explaining Idaho and Utah:

Idaho and Utah both are oddly similar states. Although Idaho is not famous for Mormonism, it has a very similar level of Mormon population. HOWEVER, while areas of Utah have less Mormon population, areas of Idaho have little.

Let's compare maps:

Idaho




In Idaho, unsurprisingly, Bush did best in the more Mormon southern area. However, counties containing major cities were typically closer, with some exceptions. Those are Ada (Boise, 61-38); Bannock (Pocatello, 62-37); Bonner (Sandpoint, 61-38); Bonneville (Idaho Falls, 77-22); Canyon (Nampa, 75-24); Kootenai (Coeur d'Alene, 66-33); Latah (Moscow, 50-48); and Twin Falls (Twin Falls, 74-24).

The major problem for a Democrat carrying Idaho would be the south part - "Little Utah" - which includes the counties of Owyhee (80-19), Twin Falls (74-24), Cassia (84-15), Oneida (84-14), Franklin (87-9), and Bear Lake (82-16).

The other major problem is "Little Wyoming," or the northeastern corner of the southern section of the state. This are includes the counties of Clark (86-13), Fremont (86-13), Jefferson (87-12), Madison (92-7), and Teton (61-38).

The north, in towns like Moscow and Coeur d'Alene, is truly the Democrat's only chance. These areas are much like urban eastern Washington in that they will go strongly for a moderate candidate. The rest of the north would love a moderate populist who is against gun control.





Utah is harder. Its populated counties are Box Elder (Trementon, 80-19); Cache (Logan, 82-16); Davis (Bountiful and northern SLC suburbs, 79-19); Salt Lake (Salt Lake City, 60-38); Tooele (Tooele, 73-25); Utah (Provo, 86-12); and Weber (Ogden, 70-27).

Provo is the single biggest problem the Democrats will ever have in Utah, and for good reason. Salt Lake City (recently called a "developing bastion of liberalism" by the local newspaper - to my entertainment) has a high Mormon population, but not massive. Provo (Utah County), on the other hand, has a massive Mormon population. Utah County casts about 16% of Utah's votes, and they aren't for Democrats.

Salt Lake County has a profound affect on the vote, casting 39% of the ballots. With it, the result is 71.54%-26.00% for Bush. Removing the county takes the result to 79.20%-18.61%. Flipping the result for Salt Lake County changes the result to 62.94%-34.59%.

Still, though, it would be a lot harder to flip Provo and Salt Lake City with their highly Republican Mormon population than it would hunters in northern Idaho.

So the answer, pretty definitely, is Utah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alcon: That's some of the best analysis I've seen for a while on here :-)

[Alcon]

Alcon: That's some of the best analysis I've seen for a while on here :-)

Thanks. Glad to know that I have wasted so much time on, err, demystified, Utah and Idaho.