Pbrower, the Tennessee poll-
Ah, nevermind.
It's simply old, and it showed splits like 37-35 (take a look at the shade) or something to that effect that make it suspect. Tennessee will be a good state to poll at any time, and the approval rating for Kentucky from PPP should be.... interesting.
Now back to South Carolina -- no Democratic nominee for President has won the state since Jimmy Carter did in 1976. Bill Clinton, who should have been a good cultural match for South Carolina, didn't win the state even once and wasn't close. The Republican must win this state to have a chance to defeat President Obama in 2012 -- and in view of 2008, really must win the state by at least 12% in the general election to have a reasonable chance of winning the Presidency. Romney seems to do that at the recent nadir of approval ratings for the President. Perry does not; he does no better than John McCain did in 2008.
Unless we see a huge reduction in interstate polarization between the states in voting behavior, South Carolina must be a stronger win for the Republican nominee than it was for John McCain if the Republican is to win nationally. Dubya won the state by roughly 16% in two close elections. Romney comes close to that, but even that might not be enough, and that is at a nadir for approval for President Obama. Perry doesn't project to win the state by a margin stronger than John McCain did, and if either Bachmann or Palin find this state close... then President Obama is at the least on the brink of a landslide.
