Who will win the GOP Nomination?

[Yelnoc]

We haven't had one of these in a while.  Who do you honestly think the GOP will nominate?  List contains only candidates who are currently running, so you Palin fanboys will have to suck it up

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

It saddens me to say this, but....
Rick Perry

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Perry

[sg0508]

Perry and he will lose by a decisive margin.

[ZuWo]

Mitt Romney. And that's good for the GOP.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney will win the nomination.

It will very soon become apparent that Perry is nothing more than an empty suit who will be no match for Obama.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is what I see:
IA - Perry 35 (Bachmann 2nd, Romney 3rd)
NH - Romney 43 (Perry 2nd, Bachmann 3rd)
SC - Perry 40 (Bachmann 2nd, Romney 3rd)
FL - Perry 37 (Romney close 2nd, Bachmann 3rd)

At this point it becomes, essentially, Perry v. Romney, with Bachmann always a distant 3rd.  They basically split, with Perry dominating the Southern states, Romney winning New England, and splitting the rest through February.

March 6th marks the big day of primaries, and Perry does pretty well; Bachmann is pretty much done, but doesn't officially drop out - it's a two person race to the voters now as well.

Romney continues through March, but by the end of the month just cannot compete anymore, and pressure forces him out.  Perry wins the nomination.

[President von Cat]

Definitely Romney. Republican primary voters, aside from a few cases like DE and NV, are much more pragmatic than people believe. They will ultimately look for who has the best chances of beating Obama, and they'll choose Romney. I think Democrats tend to let wishful thinking cloud their judgment when it comes to the GOP primary.

[bgwah]

Perry or Romney. I voted Perry in the poll, but it's just a guess.

[Devils30]

Perry and it will teach the party a lesson when the "true conservative" loses to Obama in an election that should have been won. Then in 2016 the GOP will nominate a much more respectable type like Chris Christie.

[Likely Voter]

If Perry can portray himself as presidential and "electable" in the upcoming debates (and I think he can), then its all over for Romney. So I will vote for Perry.

But in a few days we may be talking about the ridiculously insensitive and/or ignorant thing Perry said in the debate and then we are back to Romney by default.

[Psychic Octopus]

No idea at this point. Perry seems to be in the driver's seat, but he could always implode.

Perry and it will teach the party a lesson when the "true conservative" loses to Obama in an election that should have been won. Then in 2016 the GOP will nominate a much more respectable type like Chris Christie.

I wouldn't say that. I would expect the 2012 and 2016 candidates to not differ too extremely in terms of political beliefs, but the 2016 crowd seems at first glance more reasonable and likable than these jokers, so an illusion of moderation will be created.

[sg0508]

Keep this in mind.  The GOP caters to these groups nowadays:

1) Christians
2) Rednecks
3) Corporations/the top tax bracket.

Good luck in the logic.

[Bacon King]

It's still too early to tell; the GOP primary electorate is very volatile. At this point in 2007, you'd be considered an extreme hack if you seriously argued McCain would win the nomination.

[Paul Kemp]

Romney. Perry, Bachmann, and Paul split supporters.

[WillK]

Definitely RomneyPerry. Republican primary voters, aside from a few cases like DE and NV, are much more pragmatic than people believe. They will ultimately look for who has the best chances of beating Obama, and they'll choose RomneyPerry. I think DemocratsRomney-fans tend to let wishful thinking cloud their judgment when it comes to the GOP primary.

I like the way the statement was constructed, but I disagreed with the choice of names.  So I edited it to show what I think.

[NCeriale]

Perry certainly seems to have everything going for him at the moment which is why I'm terribly reluctant to say any things in the bag. Romney may reach a breaking point where if he bleeds enough support exponentially he will have lose and rapidly become a non-player (let's say if he drops 4-5-6 points more in the polls begins to hit single digits). this is what Huntsman is counting on and if Romney reaches that tipping point because of not looking like the likely nominee where Huntsman can steal half of his support in a stronghold like New Hampshire, then that so-called pragmatic vote will be all tied up and the more conservative voters who really have no reason to vote for Romney in Iowa South Carolina Florida all go to Rick Perry who is looking like a stronger and stronger nominee. the question is how thick is Rick Perry's political skin and can Romney pierce that skin before his own anemic candidacy expires.

[Likely Voter]

Perry is actually winning the electability argument (amongst GOP primary voters), leaving Romney with???

[Frodo]

Perry -and what's saddest of all is I am not sure Obama can pull the cat out of the bag next year even with Perry as the GOP nominee.  

[NCeriale]

Perry is actually winning the electability argument (amongst GOP primary voters), leaving Romney with???

so then the average conservative has absolutely no reason to vote for Romney

[Vosem]

Romney, because the early primaries favor him. Perry is peaking, but Perry would still probably beat Romney in an EC-style or a straight-up popular vote contest. The system favors Romney and Romney knows this.

[WillK]

Perry is actually winning the electability argument (amongst GOP primary voters), leaving Romney with???

I expect Romney to try to paint Perry as the career politician while pointing out that he (Romney) only spent 4 years in government, which will unfortunately highlight that Romney's track record of winning elections isn't that great, confusing the so-called electability image of Romney.   

[NCeriale]

Romney, because the early primaries favor him. Perry is peaking, but Perry would still probably beat Romney in an EC-style or a straight-up popular vote contest. The system favors Romney and Romney knows this.

Perry is favored in Three of the four primary state: Iowa South Carolina and now Nevada.

[Likely Voter]

Perry is actually winning the electability argument (amongst GOP primary voters), leaving Romney with???

I expect Romney to try to paint Perry as the career politician while pointing out that he (Romney) only spent 4 years in government, which will unfortunately highlight that Romney's track record of winning elections isn't that great, confusing the so-called electability image of Romney.   

Not only is Romney's "career politician" attack silly for pointing out how he keeps losing elections. But the other thing is that I think Romney misreads the conservative/tea party mood in that they are more anti-Washington as opposed to anti-politician and Perry is very anti-Washington. Plus the Tea Party are also no fans of Wall Street so I am pretty sure a GOP primary voter will take a Texas Governor over the head of Bain Capital.

[Modernity has failed us]

Honestly? Perry.

My hope? Ron Paul.