This is what I see:
IA -
Perry 35 (Bachmann 2nd, Romney 3rd)
NH -
Romney 43 (Perry 2nd, Bachmann 3rd)
SC -
Perry 40 (Bachmann 2nd, Romney 3rd)
FL -
Perry 37 (Romney close 2nd, Bachmann 3rd)
At this point it becomes, essentially, Perry v. Romney, with Bachmann always a distant 3rd. They basically split, with Perry dominating the Southern states, Romney winning New England, and splitting the rest through February.
March 6th marks the big day of primaries, and Perry does pretty well; Bachmann is pretty much done, but doesn't officially drop out - it's a two person race to the voters now as well.
Romney continues through March, but by the end of the month just cannot compete anymore, and pressure forces him out. Perry wins the nomination.
Poll
