Who will win the GOP Nomination?

[NCeriale]

Perry certainly seems to have everything going for him at the moment which is why I'm terribly reluctant to say any things in the bag. Romney may reach a breaking point where if he bleeds enough support exponentially he will have lose and rapidly become a non-player (let's say if he drops 4-5-6 points more in the polls begins to hit single digits). this is what Huntsman is counting on and if Romney reaches that tipping point because of not looking like the likely nominee where Huntsman can steal half of his support in a stronghold like New Hampshire, then that so-called pragmatic vote will be all tied up and the more conservative voters who really have no reason to vote for Romney in Iowa South Carolina Florida all go to Rick Perry who is looking like a stronger and stronger nominee. the question is how thick is Rick Perry's political skin and can Romney pierce that skin before his own anemic candidacy expires.

[NCeriale]

Perry is actually winning the electability argument (amongst GOP primary voters), leaving Romney with???

so then the average conservative has absolutely no reason to vote for Romney

[NCeriale]

Romney, because the early primaries favor him. Perry is peaking, but Perry would still probably beat Romney in an EC-style or a straight-up popular vote contest. The system favors Romney and Romney knows this.

Perry is favored in Three of the four primary state: Iowa South Carolina and now Nevada.

[NCeriale]

I'm reasonably confident it will be Romney or Perry now. Perry's entrance has basically drowned Bachmann's campaign. Her chance was dependent upon getting into the finals with Romney and that will almost certainly never happen now.

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