How brutal will the 2014 elections be for Republicans if Perry wins?

[J. J.]

Increase Senate seats four years in a row?  2016 will be as lopsided in favor of Democrats as 2012 is for Republicans.  Any Democrat that survived 2010(which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894), they will be able to survive 2016.  The only two Democrats remotely vulnerable in 2016 are Reid and maybe Bennett(but by 2016 Colorado could well be a solid Dem state). 

I doubt if Inouye will be around in 2016; it's possible, but he'll be 92.  There might be a shift on the rest of the Pacific Rim, OR, WA, CA, the latter being a real possibility.  CO and NV might be losses.

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Seats that were D+5.  Right now, there are 21 old seats that the D's hold at are D+2 at worst.  The R's hold only one seat that is greater than D+5.

If there wasn't redistricting, and the R's carried every seat above R+4 and lost every seat below D+2, they would have had a net gain of five seats.  Structurally, that is a problem for the Democrats.  And what D+2 in 2008, might be "even" in 2012, or even R+1.

There are a lot of Republican seats out there being held by Democrats; there are fewer Democratic seats being held by Republicans.

You have a few things here that could come together to form a perfect storm against the Democrats.

[Eraserhead]

I wonder if these predictions will turn out as well as your 2008 predictions.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If the economy has rebounded somewhat, which I presume it will under either Perry or Obama, likely very mild losses -- a status quo election.

[Eraserhead]

If the economy has rebounded somewhat, which I presume it will under either Perry or Obama, likely very mild losses -- a status quo election.

Pretty hard to imagine that any economic rebound that might happen by then would be strongly felt by everyday people.

[J. J.]

I wonder if these predictions will turn out as well as your 2008 predictions.

Well, I will say that my predictions for 2010 were wrong.  I was looking at about 40 seats for the R's in the House.  What was it, 63?

BTW, nothing about the D's holding R leaning seats is a prediction.  It is fact.  Likewise, nothing about what Senate seats will be up in 2012 and 2014 is a prediction, obviously.

Ironically, the year when the D's could have targeted the greatest number of Senate seats was 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

Increase Senate seats four years in a row?  2016 will be as lopsided in favor of Democrats as 2012 is for Republicans.  Any Democrat that survived 2010(which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894), they will be able to survive 2016.  The only two Democrats remotely vulnerable in 2016 are Reid and maybe Bennett(but by 2016 Colorado could well be a solid Dem state). 

I doubt if Inouye will be around in 2016; it's possible, but he'll be 92.  There might be a shift on the rest of the Pacific Rim, OR, WA, CA, the latter being a real possibility.  CO and NV might be losses.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seats that were D+5.  Right now, there are 21 old seats that the D's hold at are D+2 at worst.  The R's hold only one seat that is greater than D+5.

If there wasn't redistricting, and the R's carried every seat above R+4 and lost every seat below D+2, they would have had a net gain of five seats.  Structurally, that is a problem for the Democrats.  And what D+2 in 2008, might be "even" in 2012, or even R+1.

There are a lot of Republican seats out there being held by Democrats; there are fewer Democratic seats being held by Republicans.

You have a few things here that could come together to form a perfect storm against the Democrats.

'


If Republicans couldnt win OR, CO, NV, WA, and CA in a year like 2010, they wont be winning them in a Presidential year.  And where do you get the idea that Republicans are going to win Hawaii in a Presidential year?

Republicans hold over 60 seats that Obama carried, while Democrats hold only about 12 seats that McCain carried. 

[J. J.]

Increase Senate seats four years in a row?  2016 will be as lopsided in favor of Democrats as 2012 is for Republicans.  Any Democrat that survived 2010(which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894), they will be able to survive 2016.  The only two Democrats remotely vulnerable in 2016 are Reid and maybe Bennett(but by 2016 Colorado could well be a solid Dem state). 

I doubt if Inouye will be around in 2016; it's possible, but he'll be 92.  There might be a shift on the rest of the Pacific Rim, OR, WA, CA, the latter being a real possibility.  CO and NV might be losses.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seats that were D+5.  Right now, there are 21 old seats that the D's hold at are D+2 at worst.  The R's hold only one seat that is greater than D+5.

If there wasn't redistricting, and the R's carried every seat above R+4 and lost every seat below D+2, they would have had a net gain of five seats.  Structurally, that is a problem for the Democrats.  And what D+2 in 2008, might be "even" in 2012, or even R+1.

There are a lot of Republican seats out there being held by Democrats; there are fewer Democratic seats being held by Republicans.

You have a few things here that could come together to form a perfect storm against the Democrats.

'


If Republicans couldnt win OR, CO, NV, WA, and CA in a year like 2010, they wont be winning them in a Presidential year.  And where do you get the idea that Republicans are going to win Hawaii in a Presidential year?

Republicans hold over 60 seats that Obama carried, while Democrats hold only about 12 seats that McCain carried. 

Mr. Phips, you assume that 2012 will be 2008.  It won't be. 

Actually, there could be a coattail effect for the Senate.  As noted, in the House, there are currently 18 seats held by D's that are even or from Republican voting districts, according to Cook.  That goes up to 22 at D+1, and 26 at D+2.  That is prior to redistricting.

Because of the way Cook selects his data, the last two presidential elections, his numbers are slightly skewed toward the D's.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Reverse jmfsct thread anyone?

how am I connected to this thread, exactly?