IA PrimR: Rasmussen: Perry ahead by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Rasmussen on 2011-08-31

Summary:

Perry:	29%
Bachmann:	18%
Romney:	17%
Paul:	14%
Other:	13%
Undecided:	9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Mehmentum]

Fits what PPP polled earlier.  Although Perry has extended his lead.

Paul should definately focus on Iowa, it's the only place where he has this much support.

[King]

I would say Paul coming in 2nd ahead of Romney and Bachmann would be fun, but it's quite obvious that it would go unnoticed.

[TheGlobalizer]

I would say Paul coming in 2nd ahead of Romney and Bachmann would be fun, but it's quite obvious that it would go unnoticed.

Paul who?

[angus]

Paul: 14%

It's a small population.  Me and jbrase account for half of that 14%.  Wonder who the other two are?

[CatoMinor]

Paul: 14%

It's a small population.  Me and jbrase account for half of that 14%.  Wonder who the other two are?

I am back in Texas so I don't count. But my Dad and Grandpa are Paul supporters now so that makes up for it.

[Gustaf]

If Perry is crowned IA winner well in advance, a Paul 2nd place might grab some headlines.

[Guderian]

I wonder how wise it is for Romney to somewhat ignore Iowa this time. Possible 4th place finish would look ugly.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder how wise it is for Romney to somewhat ignore Iowa this time. Possible 4th place finish would look ugly.

McCain finished 4th in Iowa in 2008, and it didn't hurt him at all.  I think Romney should only compete hard in Iowa if he actually thinks he can win it (which seems unlikely).  If it looks like Perry's going to win Iowa, then Romney's better off letting Bachmann win 2nd place, so that she stays in the race longer and takes votes from Perry.

This:

1) Perry
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Romney

would actually be a better Iowa result for Romney than this:

1) Perry
2) Romney
3) Bachmann
4) Paul

[CARLHAYDEN]

As people get to know more about Perry, his numbers will crumble.

[Guderian]

I wonder how wise it is for Romney to somewhat ignore Iowa this time. Possible 4th place finish would look ugly.

McCain finished 4th in Iowa in 2008, and it didn't hurt him at all.  I think Romney should only compete hard in Iowa if he actually thinks he can win it (which seems unlikely).  If it looks like Perry's going to win Iowa, then Romney's better off letting Bachmann win 2nd place, so that she stays in the race longer and takes votes from Perry.

This:

1) Perry
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Romney

would actually be a better Iowa result for Romney than this:

1) Perry
2) Romney
3) Bachmann
4) Paul

But McCain made a point in ignoring Iowa all along. Romney practically lived there in late 2007, and McCain was always an insurgent type, not a favorite or co-favorite like Romney. Also, I think Bachmann is done if she doesn't win Iowa since she decided to go all-in there. Not in a sense that she would drop out after a second place finish, but realistically how is she going to win the nomination if Perry wins Iowa? Her fundraising and media attention would evaporate.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder how wise it is for Romney to somewhat ignore Iowa this time. Possible 4th place finish would look ugly.

McCain finished 4th in Iowa in 2008, and it didn't hurt him at all.  I think Romney should only compete hard in Iowa if he actually thinks he can win it (which seems unlikely).  If it looks like Perry's going to win Iowa, then Romney's better off letting Bachmann win 2nd place, so that she stays in the race longer and takes votes from Perry.

This:

1) Perry
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Romney

would actually be a better Iowa result for Romney than this:

1) Perry
2) Romney
3) Bachmann
4) Paul

But McCain made a point in ignoring Iowa all along.

Not at all.  McCain made an effort there in the first half of 2007, but then when his campaign imploded in the summer, he started focusing everything on NH.

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Huh?  McCain was the early frontrunner for the 2008 GOP nomination.  Though of course, he ended up losing that status, before ultimately regaining it just before the voting started.

Romney hasn't run a single ad in Iowa to date this time around.  I really don't think he's going to pay a price for coming in 4th there if he decides to never run an ad there and does little to no campaigning in the state.  People will recognize that it's just not part of his nomination strategy to compete there, same as McCain in 2008.

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It doesn't matter if 2nd place dooms her chances.  Her chances are already doomed anyway.  The question is simply whether she decides to stick in the race and drain at least a few % from Perry in future primaries (thus helping Romney).  If she comes 2nd place in Iowa, there's every likelihood that she'll keep going, at least for a while.  When has anyone ever come in 2nd place in Iowa and immediately dropped out?

[© tweed]

I wonder how wise it is for Romney to somewhat ignore Iowa this time. Possible 4th place finish would look ugly.

a couple months ago I asked a question: is there a way for Romney to try to compete in Iowa without making it look like he's trying to compete?