European Presidential Election 2011: timeline

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A new timeline, kind of shaky and implausible, but fun. I'm busy these days until at least the winter, so updates will be rare and in between, but I promise I'll finish it. Someday.

The idea is that the Lisbon Treat says the President of the European Council will be elected by popular vote using an American EV-system with each state's EVs based on the Lisbon treaty allocation of MEPs (not used in RL yet). Each election is administered by the country's election-governing body. Each candidate must receive the endorsement of a pan-European party or supported by five national parties from at least three countries. Therefore, one party in one country may not individually nominate a candidate (eg: the BNP cannot nominate a candidate on its own). The big pan-European parties: EPP, PES, ELDR, Greens, ECR, PEL etc are all expected to nominate a candidate. Major parties are also expected to have primaries in case of more than one candidate. Primaries will be organized by each Europarty's member national parties. Delegate numbers will be the same as the EVs.

Electoral Votes by State
Germany 96
France 74
Italy 73
United Kingdom 73
Spain 54
Poland 51
Romania 33
Netherlands 26
Belgium 22
Czech Republic 22
Greece 22
Hungary 22
Portugal 22
Sweden 20
Austria 19
Bulgaria 18
Finland 13
Denmark 13
Slovakia 13
Ireland 12
Lithuania 12
Latvia 9
Slovenia 8
Cyprus 6
Estonia 6
Luxembourg 6
Malta 6

[Niemeyerite]

^^

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Exhaustive list of potential candidates: January 2010

European People's Party

Top contenders
José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission (PSD-Portugal)
Rodrigo Rato, former IMF Managing Director (PP-Spain)
Michel Barnier, EU Commissioner for Internal Market and Services (UMP-France)
Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister of Luxembourg (CSV-Luxembourg)
Herman van Rompuy, Prime Minister of Belgium (CD&V-Belgium)
Jan Peter Balkenende, Prime Minister of the Netherlands (CDA-Netherlands)
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, German Defense Minister (CDU-Germany)
Karel Schwarzenberg, former Czech Foreign Minister (TOP09-Czech Republic)
Sauli Niinistö, Speaker of the Finnish Parliament (KOK-Finland)
Jerzy Buzek, President of the European Parliament and former Prime Minister of Poland (PO-Poland)

Secondary contenders
Jaime Mayor Oreja, former Spanish Interior Minister (PP-Spain)
Rachida Dati, MEP for France and former French Justice Minister (UMP-France)
Günther Oettinger, EU Commissioner for Energy (CDU-Germany)
Wolfgang Schäuble, German Finance Minister (CDU-Germany)
Wolfgang Schüssel, former Chancellor of Austria (OVP-Austria)
Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for Trade and European Neighbourhood Policy (OVP-Austria)
Antonio Tajani, EU Commissioner for Industry and Entrepreneurship (PDL-Italy)
Dora Bakoyannis, former Greek cabinet minister (ND-Greece)
Kristalina Georgieva, EU Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response (GERB-Bulgaria)
László Tőkés, MEP for Romania (UDMR-Romania)
Ján Figeľ, former EU Commissioner for Education, Training, Culture and Youth (KDH-Slovakia)
Pál Schmitt, MEP for Hungary (Fidesz-Hungary)
Bendt Bendtsen, MEP for Denmark (K-Denmark)
Vytautas Landsbergis, MEP for Lithuania (TS-LKD-Lithuania)
Radosław Sikorski, Polish Foreign Minister (PO-Poland)

Party of European Socialists

Top contenders
Felipe González, former President of the Spanish Government (PSOE-Spain)
Javier Solana, High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy and former NATO Secretary-General (PSOE-Spain)
Tony Blair, former Prime Minister of the UK (Labour-UK)
Romano Prodi, former Prime Minister of Italy (PD-Italy)
Margot Wallström, EU Commissioner for Institutional Relations and Communication Strategy (SD-Sweden)

Secondary contenders
Mário Soares, former President and Prime Minister of Portugal (PS-Portugal)
Joaquín Almunia, EU Commissioner for Competition (PSOE-Spain)
Vincent Peillon, MEP for France (PS-France)
Job Cohen, Mayor of Amsterdam (PvdA-Netherlands)
Wim Kok, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands (PvdA-Netherlands)
Martin Schulz, leader of the PASD group in the EP (SPD-Germany)
Giorgos Papakonstantinou, MEP for Greece (PASOK-Greece)
Maria Damanaki, EU Commissioner for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (PASOK-Greece)
Štefan Füle, EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy (CSSD-Czech Republic)
Adrian Năstase, former Prime Minister of Romania (PSD-Romania)
László Andor, EU Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (MSZP-Hungary)
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, former Prime Minister of Denmark (SD-Denmark)
Göran Persson, former Prime Minister of Sweden (SD-Sweden)
Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, former Prime Minister of Poland (SLD-Poland)
Joseph Muscat, former MEP for Malta (Labour-Malta)

European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party/European Democratic Party

Top contenders
Bertie Ahern, former Taoiseach of Ireland (FF-Ireland)
Guy Verhofstadt, MEP for Belgium and former Prime Minister of Belgium (Open VLD-Belgium)
Louis Michel, MEP for Belgium and former EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid (MR-Belgium)
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary-General (V-Denmark)
Olli Rehn, EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs (KESK-Finland)

Secondary contenders
Jean-Luc Bennahmias, MEP for France (MoDem-France)
Marielle de Sarnez, MEP for France (MoDem-France)
Graham Watson, leader of the ALDE group in the EP (LibDems-UK)
Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats (LibDems-UK)
Chris Huhne, Liberal Democrat Home Affairs Spokesman (LibDems-UK)
Micheál Martin, Irish Foreign Minister (FF-Ireland)
Guido Westerwelle, German Foreign Minister (FDP-Germany)
Antonio Di Pietro, former Italian cabinet minister (IdV-Italy)
Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, former Prime Minister of Bulgaria (NDSV-Bulgaria)
Cecilia Malmström, Swedish EU Affairs Minister (Fp-Sweden)
Anneli Jäätteenmäki, MEP for Finland and former Prime Minister of Finland (KESK-Finland)
Siim Kallas, former Prime Minister of Estonia (R-Estonia)

European Green Party

Top contenders
Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP for France (EELV-France)
Caroline Lucas, MEP for the UK (Green-UK)
Joschka Fischer, former German Foreign Minister (Green-Germany)

Secondary contenders
Eva Joly, MEP for France (EELV-France)
Isabelle Durant, MEP for Belgium (Ecolo-Belgium)
Christian Engström, MEP for Sweden (Pirate-Sweden)
Heidi Hautala, MEP for Finland (Vihr-Finland)
Indrek Tarand, MEP for Estonia (Ind-Estonia)
Tatjana Ždanoka, MEP for Latvia (PCTVL-Latvia)

Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists

Top contenders
William Hague, Shadow Foreign Secretary of the UK (Conservatives-UK)
Michał Kamiński, MEP for Poland (PiS-Poland)

Secondary contenders
Jean-Marie Dedecker, MEP for Belgium (LDD-Belgium)

Party of the European Left/Nordic Green Left Alliance

Top contenders
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, MEP for France (PG-France)
Oskar Lafontaine, co-leader of the Left (Left-Germany)

Secondary contenders
Gerry Adams, British MP (SF-Northern Ireland)
Joe Higgins, MEP for Ireland (Socialist-Ireland)
Lothar Bisky, MEP for Germany (Left-Germany)

European Free Alliance
François Alfonsi, MEP for France (PNC-France)
Jillian Evans, MEP for the UK (Plaid-UK)
Angus Robertson, British MP (SNP-UK)

Potential independent or other candidacies*

Top contenders
Jean-Marie Le Pen, MEP for France (FN-France)
Philippe de Villiers, MEP for France (MPF-France)
Nigel Farage, MEP for the UK (UKIP-UK)
Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga, former President of Latvia (Ind-Latvia)

Secondary contenders
Nick Griffin, MEP for the UK (BNP-UK)
Filip Dewinter, MEP for Belgium (VB-Belgium)
Geert Wilders, MEP for the Netherlands (PVV-Belgium)
Hans-Peter Martin, MEP for Austria (HPML-Austria)
Francesco Speroni, MEP for Italy (LN-Italy)
Umberto Bossi, Italian cabinet minister (LN-Italy)
Georgios Karatzaferis, former MEP for Greece (LAOS-Greece)
Corneliu Vadim Tudor, MEP for Romania (PRM-Romania)
Béla Bugár, leader of Most-Hid (Most-Hid-Slovakia)
Timo Soini, MEP for Finland (True Finns-Finland)

* candidates will need the endorsement of four other national parties beside their own in order to run

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's a very interesting project.

[Niemeyerite]

That's a very interesting project.

This.

And I don't know who I should support. Solana or Gonzalez?

[Stan]

My personal support is for Romano Prodi!

[Niemeyerite]

Solana is the most electable, and the best candidate. I don't think Felipe will run if he runs... Felipe would only run if Solana decided against it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There are a lot of great names in the PSOE bench, I don't know who I'd support but Prodi would be an excellent leader (though maybe a poor candidate), as would be Rasmussen or Gonzalez. Cohn-Bendit, Fischer and Joly are also awesome people, but I doubt a green has a shot at winning.

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Early polling with prospective candidates:

EPP (mid-January 2010)

José Manuel Barroso 21%
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg 15%
Jan Peter Balkenende 10%
Jerzy Buzek 9%
Jean-Claude Juncker 8%
Herman van Rompuy 6%
Michel Barnier 5%
Rodrigo Rato 3%
Karel Schwarzenberg 3%
Sauli Niinisto 1%
Undecided/others 19%

PES (mid-January 2010)

Tony Blair 35%
Romano Prodi 15%
Javier Solana 10%
Felipe González 8%
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen 3%
Margot Wallström 1%
Undecided/others 28%

ELDR/EDP (mid-January 2010)

Guy Verhofstadt 15%
Anders Fogh Rasmussen 9%
Bertie Ahern 10%
Louis Michel 6%
Olli Rehn 5%
Undecided/others 55%

EGP (mid-January 2010)

Joschka Fischer 20%
Daniel Cohn-Bendit 18%
Caroline Lucas 5%
Undecided/others 57%

PEL/NGLA (mid-January 2010)

Oskar Lafontaine 17%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Undecided/others 73%


Hypothetical match-up of front-runners:

Tony Blair (PES) 31%
José Manuel Barroso (EPP) 21%
Guy Verhofstadt (ELDR) 9%
Joschka Fischer (EGP) 7%
Oskar Lafontaine (PEL) 7%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (EXD/FN) 5%
Nigel Farage (EFD/UKIP) 2%
Undecided/others 18%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Jerzy Buzek, President of the European Parliament and former Prime Minister of Poland (PO-Poland)

Buzek is the last person I'd want to see anywhere around an executive post again.

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I remember how happy I was when he lost PO presidential primary

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Kwaśniewski would be way more possible candidate than Cimoszewicz, who's not even SLD member anymore. Cimoszewicz have no real base on national scene left.

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Kamiński was already kicked off from PiS and is a member of a joke project called PJN.

[Niemeyerite]

I'd vote for Barroso over Blair.

And I don't think it's realistic Blair leading ion the socialist primaries. At least, in Spain, we hate him.

[hcallega]

Vive le Bertie!!!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Great initiative Hash.

Although you should really not shorten the Swedish Social Democrats to SD (They're not that bad)