2011 French Senate Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll try to do soon. Err, too late...

Before then, a technical question : what criterion did you use to classify senators among the right or among the left ? For example, what do you do with the RDSE group ? Wikipedia breaks it down into left-wing and right-wing members, I don't know if you proceed the same way or rather give it all to the left.

Anyways, according to you classification, the breakdown of this series is 93-70 for the right. It must become 93-77 for the left in order for it to win a majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, Hash has predicted a minimum gain of 18 for the left, but with a maximum loss of 4, which would translate into a net gain of 14 (if I did the numbers right).

[MaxQue]

Actually, Hash has predicted a minimum gain of 18 for the left, but with a maximum loss of 4, which would translate into a net gain of 14 (if I did the numbers right).

That 18 includes the four losses (even if I'm not convinced than there will be 4 losses.).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, Hash has predicted a minimum gain of 18 for the left, but with a maximum loss of 4, which would translate into a net gain of 14 (if I did the numbers right).

That 18 includes the four losses (even if I'm not convinced than there will be 4 losses.).

Well, I miscounted. Very good to know.

If the range is 18-28, that means the odds of a left-wing majority are around 50%.

Still interested in knowing how you proceded for grouping, Hash.

[Hash]

I'll try to do soon. Err, too late...

Before then, a technical question : what criterion did you use to classify senators among the right or among the left ? For example, what do you do with the RDSE group ? Wikipedia breaks it down into left-wing and right-wing members, I don't know if you proceed the same way or rather give it all to the left.

Anyways, according to you classification, the breakdown of this series is 93-70 for the right. It must become 93-77 for the left in order for it to win a majority.

The right-wing RDSE members in Jura, SPM, Guadeloupe so forth are counted as 'right'. All MoDems are counted as 'right'.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll try to do soon. Err, too late...

Before then, a technical question : what criterion did you use to classify senators among the right or among the left ? For example, what do you do with the RDSE group ? Wikipedia breaks it down into left-wing and right-wing members, I don't know if you proceed the same way or rather give it all to the left.

Anyways, according to you classification, the breakdown of this series is 93-70 for the right. It must become 93-77 for the left in order for it to win a majority.

The right-wing RDSE members in Jura, SPM, Guadeloupe so forth are counted as 'right'. All MoDems are counted as 'right'.

That makes sense, and apparently corresponds to Wikipedia's classification.

A technical question : when exactly will we know the results ? I feel really excited.

[Andrea]

Nouvelle Caledonie - First round

M. Hilarion VENDEGOU (UMP)    232  votes 46.31%
M. Pierre FROGIER (UMP)    230    45.91
M. Victor TUTUGORO (REG)    121    24.15
M. Charles PIDJOT (REG)    117    23.35
M. Adolphe Kamebo DIGOUE (REG)    77    15.37    
M. Philippe DUNOYER (MAJ)    72    14.37    
M. Gérard POADJA (MAJ)    67    13.37
M. Didier BARON (AUT)    2    0.40       
M. Philippe ROUVRAY (AUT)    1    0.20    
M. Alain LE BRETON (AUT)    1    0.20    
       
II round

M. Pierre FROGIER (UMP)    240  votes 47.9%
M.  Hilarion VENDEGOU (UMP)    238    47.5%
M. Charles PIDJOT (REG)    112    22.36%
M. Victor TUTUGORO (REG)    91 18.16%
M. Adolphe Kamebo DIGOUE (REG)    80 15.97%   
M. Philippe DUNOYER (MAJ)    68    13.57%
M. Gérard POADJA (MAJ)    63    12.57%

   
 

[Andrea]

Mayotte- First Round

M. Abdourahamane SOILIHI (UMP)    146    35,61    
M. Thani MOHAMED SOILIHI (DVG)    146    35,61
M. Soibahadine IBRAHIM RAMADANI (UMP)    132    32,20    
M. Ahamada FAHARDINE (SOC)    105    25,61    
M. Adrien GIRAUD (DVD)    77    18,78
M. Salim MOUHOUTAR (DVG)    55    13,41
M. Bacar IBRAHIM (DVG)    50    12,20    
M. Assani ALIDINA (DVG)    21    5,12
M. Mohamed MOUSTOIFA (DVD)    20    4,88
M. Gilles MARTIN (UMP)    13    3,17    
M. Ahamada SAINDOU (MAJ)    13    3,17    
Mme Bichara BOUHARI (DVD)    8    1,95    
M. Eugène FELIX (AUT)    8    1,95    
M. Boina DINOURAINI (DVG)    3    0,73    
   

Meuse

Longuet UMP 50.51% ELECTED
Dumont SOC 37.03%
Namy UMP 35.2%
Luhillier SOC 26.63%
Becq Vinci UMP 12.8%
Biwer MAJ 12,8%
Leclerc Modem 5.37%
Blin DVD 3,89%
Lefort ECO 3.66%
Bilde FN 3.66%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Welcome to the forum Andrea. And thank you for posting all these results. Do you know where I can find them directly ?

[Andrea]

Welcome to the forum Andrea. And thank you for posting all these results. Do you know where I can find them directly ?

Thanks for the welcome :-)

I can't post links as I don't have the minimum of 20 posts. However results are on Ministère de l'Interieur website and on Senate website

2 easy wins for la Guache in Lot

Lozère
UMP 169 votes
PS 168
FN 1

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've found it, thank you.

So it's basically a tie in Lozère, wow !

For the record, here's the link : http://www.senat.fr/senatoriales_2011.html

[MaxQue]

Ouest-France says for Morbihan:

Hervieux is reelected by the first round.

The two other left candidates are leading the right-wing ones (!!??!!).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Senate website hasn't any new results up so far...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The French Senate is an obvious anachronism, a domain of the provincional notables, as Hash rightly pointed out. Sadly, while a lot of people were and are questioning status quo, there were no successful attempt to reform it and remember that de Gaulle resigned after losing referendum aimed, among others, at reforming the Senate.

Btw, welcome to forum, Andrea

[Andrea]

Thanks Cancer Man Kalwejt  :-)

Looking at useful Caudillo Francisco Franco Hashemite's recap in the previous thread, some of the more interesting departments where Left needs/hopes to pick up a seat:


Lot-et-Garonne

PS 427
MAJ 377
MAJ 323
PS 304
MAJ 149
MAJ 72
PG 58
PC 45
PS 27
VEC 22
VEC 12
FN 12


Morbihan

Herviaux PS 948 ELECTED
VEC 830
Com 823
Kergueris Maj 815
Le Nay UMP 794
Goulard UMP 794
REG 38
REG 30
FN 15
AUT 8
DVD 6

JURA: Bailly UMP 423 Barbier UMP 314 Vuillermoz PS 305 PS 280 Vermeillet UMP 251 Com 61/60 FN 16

Loir et Cher: Modem 492 ELECTED PS 400 MAJ 398 UMP 238 PC 92 VEC 74 RDG 39 FN 12 AUT 7 AUT 0


Indre-et-Loire: PS 698 Com 697 PS 665 UMP 598 MAJ 468  DVD 277 FN43

PS held its seat in Loiret

[minionofmidas]

Thanks Cancer Man :-)

Looking at useful Caudillo Francisco Franco's recap in the previous thread

Just a headsup: usually safer to refer to people by their "username"  (the one in smaller print below) than their "screen name". Although there are exceptions. Some of us change their screen names all the time.

Yeah, I'll come back to this thread once a clearer picture emerges.

[Andrea]

Oh sorry, I didn't realize there were 2 different names and so I thought it was his username. I didn't want to cause offences

Christian Bourquin gained a seat for the left in Pyrénées orientales. Alduy trailes Calvet for UMP seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where do you see the results ? The Senate site hasn't been updated for a while...

[minionofmidas]

Oh sorry, I didn't realize there were 2 different names and so I thought it was his username. I didn't want to cause offences

Oh, you didn't cause offense. It's just easier for people to know who you're talking to, and for yourself after a while.

[Andrea]

Where do you see the results ? The Senate site hasn't been updated for a while...

On the Senate website!
Maybe you need to do re-fresh. So far I see results from
Nouvelle Caledonie, Mayotte, Meuse, Marne, Haute Marne, Morbinhan, Orne, Mayanne, Indre et Loire,  Loir et Cher, Loiret, Nievre, Jura, Lozère, Haute Loire, Lot, Lot et Garonne, Landes, Hautes-Pyrénées and Pyrénées-Orientales.

Puy-de-Dôme just in. The 3 PS candidates leading in first round

Oh, you didn't cause offense. It's just easier for people to know who you're talking to, and for yourself after a while.

an advice I certainly needed! Thanks :-)

[Hash]

Wow, Morbihan. Never expected that.

[MaxQue]

Wow, Morbihan. Never expected that.

Well, it confirm than Morbihan isn't immunised to the swing to the left of Breitz.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently 1st round is up in every FPP département except Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Manche. And 3/4 DTOMs.

[Andrea]

Apparently 1st round is up in every FPP département except Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Manche. And 3/4 DTOMs.

Now all in.

The PS seat in Manche looks gone.
In Pyrénées-Atlantiques, UMP Castaings doesn't stand a chance (under 10%), the PS incumbent trails the other 2 PS candidates. So there can be a +1 for the Left but with the incumbent losing out.

2 of the 4 Left seats potentially in danger have been saved. 1 looks indeed lost while we wait for the 4th departmennt.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guadeloupe, Martinique and SP&M still not in.