2011 French Senate Election

[big bad fab]

The RDSE group may well die (and we all be sad ): most of right radicals seem to rally the Union centriste group, in which tensions are high between NC senators and AC ones (probably with MoDem pushing the latter against the former).

Wow, another secular tradition is about to end...

Where would the radicals side in this case ? In the socialist group like in the Assemblée ? Or will they form a RCV-like group with EELV ?

This is just a possibility, don't go too fast.
And with many DVG, the group may survive. All the more if the threshold to form a group is downsized to 10, just to make it possible for Greens to have a group. Ridiculous but probable.

Great news: Valérie Létard will be candidate to the Senate's presidency: so, clearly, Borloo wants to be a candidate for the French presidency...

[Antonio the Sixth]

The RDSE group may well die (and we all be sad ): most of right radicals seem to rally the Union centriste group, in which tensions are high between NC senators and AC ones (probably with MoDem pushing the latter against the former).

Wow, another secular tradition is about to end...

Where would the radicals side in this case ? In the socialist group like in the Assemblée ? Or will they form a RCV-like group with EELV ?

This is just a possibility, don't go too fast.
And with many DVG, the group may survive. All the more if the threshold to form a group is downsized to 10, just to make it possible for Greens to have a group. Ridiculous but probable.

Yeah, I'm all for allowing pluralism, but 10 senators for a group is silly... That's less than 3%. All the more that the greenies could easily find five random lefties to side with them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time to take a look at Hash's predictions. I'll assign numbers according to the realization of his predictions (not for the sake of rating, just to has some elements of comparison ). I'll give 1 when his prediction was realized, 0.7 when one of the two alternative is realized, and 0 when the results were totally unpredicted.

Indre et Loire : Left overperformance 0
Isère : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Jura : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Landes : As predicted 1
Loir-et-Cher : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Loire : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Haute-Loire : As predicted 1
Loire-Atlantique : As predicted 1
Loiret : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Lot : As predicted 1
Lot-et-Garronne : As predicted 1
Lozère : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Maine-et-Loire : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Manche : Left overperformance 0
Marne : As predicted 1
Haute-Marne : As predicted 1
Mayenne : As predicted 1
Meurthe-et-Moselle : As predicted 1
Meuse : As predicted 1
Morbihan : Left over-overperformance 0
Moselle : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Nièvre : As predicted 1
Nord : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Oise : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Orne : As predicted 1
Pas-de-Calais : As predicted 1
Puy-de-Dôme : As predicted 1
Pyrénées-Atlantiques : As predicted 1
Hautes-Pyrénées : As predicted 1
Pyrénées-Orientales : As predicted 1
Paris : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Seine-et-Marne : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Yvelines : As predicted 1
Essonne : As predicted 1
Hauts-de-Seine : As predicted 1
Seine-Saint-Denis : Right overperformance 0
Val-de-Marne : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Val-d'Oise : As predicted 1
Guadeloupe : As predicted 1
Martinique : As predicted 1
Réunion : Right overperformance 0
Mayotte : Right overperformance 0
Nouvelle Calédonie : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
St. Pierre et Miquelon : As predicted 1
French Abroad : As predicted 1

Correctly predicted : 25
Option considered : 14
Wrongly predicted : 6

=> 34.8/45 = 77%


Departements where one outcome was predicted (30)
- Predicted outcome : 17 gains, 1 loss
- Actual outcome : 15 gains, 0 losses

Departements where two outcomes were predicted (15)
- Most pro-right outcome : 3 gains, 3 losses
- Most pro-left outcome : 15 gains, 0 losses
- Actual outcome : 9 gains (+2 Morbihan, not predicted), 1 loss

[big bad fab]

Jean-Vincent Placé may be a candidate for the Senate presidency...
Sure, it's only for the first round, but still, it's another way to play by the prehistoric rules of the balance of powers: "let's try to gather DVG votes and even votes from the right" (happy to mess things up inside the left) "and the socialists will be forced to give me my group with only 10 parliamentarians and to negotiate with me on the legislative constituencies".

Really, dear socialists, stop giving power to Greens that they aren't able to grasp on their own !

There are talks of 80 constituencies for the Greens in 2012.
Sure, they won't have 80 elected députés, but considering the likely disaster for the right and the fact that the FN won't make any present to an UMP that Panzergirl will want to kill, they may well have 30 or 35 députés in the end...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Placé is a stupid hack and if the greens get their 10-members group it will be quite pathetic. However, let's be fair : 35 seats in the AN is what a party like EELV should get with a fair electoral system (maybe even more than that, actually), and I don't see any reason to deny them.

[big bad fab]

We are still in a majority system and, in terms of stability, it's better for the PS not to have too much Greens (especially all those pieces of crap from the "civil society", who are even more hacks and Khmers than the old Greens...).

Anyway, the RDSE group is still alive, but is on the verge to lose its historical specificity (to gather senators from both left and right):
on the 16 members, 11 are from the PRG and only 3 are from the right:
Aymeri de Montesquiou, a soft right radical from Gers, who is said to be about to join the UC (Union centriste) group,
Jean-Marie Bockel, who is said to be about to do the same thing, as he is now a Borloo fan,
and Gilbert Barbier, a former UDF, former UMP grumbling senator from Jura: I don't know where he'll go, but I can't imagine he'd be the last one in the RDSE group !

So, the old "Gauche démocratique" group (which was more rightist when he had the word "left" in his name ) is almost History

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well yeah, that's a bit of a pity, but considering the modern trend toward bipolarization it hardly could have be avoided...

Of course the best for the PS would be to have an absolute majority with no "allies" to worry about. But that's not in the left's traditions, probably.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At which hour will the election take place ?

[Andrea]

Bel 179 votes
Larcher 134
Lètard 29
5 unvoted/spoilt ballots

I read that Verges (Commies, Reunion) is resigning his seat and that his suppléante can't vote in the Senate President election. Is it right? If so, why?

He delayed his resignation afterall as he chaired the Senate today

[Antonio the Sixth]

On the first round, and with 2 more votes ! Awesome.

So all this right-wing hope was a mere bluff. I suspected it, but you never know...

[MaxQue]

Antonio, Sarkozy has apparently asked to Larcher to not do that.
The left had claimed very quickly its victory.
Them losing would would have looked as a backdoor deal, which voters wouldn't like.

[Hash]

The UC group has been transformed into the Union centriste et republicaine (UCR), taking in a few Radicals from the UMP group and the remaining right-wingers in the RDSE (except Barbier?). The RDSE has 14 members, one less than the threshold. I suppose they could get the greenies to join them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio, Sarkozy has apparently asked to Larcher to not do that.
The left had claimed very quickly its victory.
Them losing would would have looked as a backdoor deal, which voters wouldn't like.

True, that would make sense. Still, Larcher couldn't even gather all his political side (even if you don't count the UC vote).


So, will the group threshold be eventually lowered or not ? Considering Placé didn't get any vote, I guess he won't have any leverage on this decision. If radicals are in the same situation than greens, I think a RCV-like group is the most probable outcome.