2012 Senatorial Prediction

[Dave Leip]

The 2012 Senatorial Predictions are now active.

[Odysseus]

Thanks Dave! Though I've noticed that the "Predicted Senate Control" only has the current seats and doesn't display the total numbers for the Senate.

[Californian Tony]

Noticed it too.

Anyways, here is my first take, loking principally at pundit rankings. I'm willingfully overestimating uncertainty, so that extreme scenarioes aren't ruled out too early.





All the tossups going D would result in an unchanged 53/47 dem majority. All the tossups going R would result in republicans taking over with 57 seats.

[MilesC56]

Thanks.

It says that Montana is an open seat though.

[Dave Leip]

Thanks Dave! Though I've noticed that the "Predicted Senate Control" only has the current seats and doesn't display the total numbers for the Senate.

Thanks - I needed up update the senate database for 2012 - now updated to include control prediction data.

Enjoy,
Dave

[Dave Leip]

Thanks.

It says that Montana is an open seat though.

Thanks - That was an error - don't know how it snuck in, but now corrected.
Enjoy,
Dave

[technical support]

nd -dem
fl-dem
in-rep
tx-rep
ca-dem
mn-dem
mo-dem