2012 Republican Primary Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 06:21:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2012 Republican Primary Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions  (Read 30891 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2011, 11:14:57 PM »

I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2011, 03:41:43 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2011, 03:44:34 PM by Blackwater NiK »

I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.

I was a bit more generous, but my new prediction is also a Gingrich victory.

Here it is.
Logged
FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,279
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2011, 09:11:55 AM »

How do you make these maps.
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2011, 10:49:08 AM »


Get an account on the Atlas site (not the forum), click on the prediction map, and click "Create Prediction".

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=495

^mine
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2011, 03:53:35 PM »

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2011, 04:20:42 PM »

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2011, 09:56:11 PM »

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2011, 06:51:18 PM »

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.

Altho arguably, Dave should replace the non-binding Missouri primary that will be held on 7 February with the binding Missouri caucus that will be held on 17 March, and Gingrich certainly will be a player for that if the nomination is still in doubt.
Logged
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: December 08, 2011, 04:27:57 PM »

I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,891
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: December 19, 2011, 09:12:50 AM »

First prediction, partly based on 538's forecasts and partly personal guesswork due to the current trends.



Quote from: Restricted
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Of course, more serious predictions can be done only after Iowa.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: December 21, 2011, 02:32:58 PM »

Hi,
Note that the primary election dates have been updated and that the MO contest has replaced the Primary with the Caucus.

Dave
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: December 26, 2011, 05:33:43 PM »

I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.

You can update it as it goes on.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: December 30, 2011, 06:37:10 PM »

Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,891
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: January 03, 2012, 11:31:34 AM »

Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

Indeed. But meanwhile, he keeps stealing States to Gingrich (FL and SD recently, MO now being tied...). TX has also switched back to Perry for some reason.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,891
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: January 03, 2012, 11:34:54 AM »

Final prediction before Iowa.



Of course everything might change after that.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: January 03, 2012, 03:45:12 PM »

We all saw how far Gingrich dropped once the negativity hit him in Iowa. From early to mid-December, Gingrich's lead in South Carolina went from around 20 points to 12, according to Insider Advantage. At this point, his lead is probably smaller than that, and considering he probably won't have strong (Top 3) showings in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as well as his lack of finances, I have a hard time seeing him win South Carolina, thus the nomination. It's going to be an interesting battle in South Carolina, to say the least. Wink
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2012, 10:13:05 PM »

Are the color changes on the Iowa results page here going to be reflected in the predictions?

Rick Santorum being blue, Newt Gingrich being orange, etc
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,891
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: January 04, 2012, 12:24:05 PM »



Updated prediction. SC is a guesswork, but I'm fairly confident Santorum will pull ahead there in next polls.

My Iowa prediction turned to be correct (unfortunately). Sad
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: January 04, 2012, 11:59:34 PM »

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: January 05, 2012, 10:51:48 AM »

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: January 05, 2012, 01:31:53 PM »

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,891
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: January 06, 2012, 05:30:23 AM »

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

Sorry, but no. The race was objectively a tossup. Whether Romney won or not, you can't say it was a good thing to say the race was "lean Romney".
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: January 06, 2012, 05:42:07 PM »

No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. Angry
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: January 08, 2012, 01:08:27 PM »

No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. Angry
Amen. Yes, it was a very close race, practically a toss-up, but the fact remains that Romney received more votes than any other candidate, and those who predicted that it would happen should be "rewarded" for their prediction.
Logged
HoldCongressAccountable
Newbie
*
Posts: 1


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: January 09, 2012, 02:26:03 PM »

Dave,
This alas desperately needs to be updated!
ht.../PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php
Michelle Bachmann is gone, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum should be included for a short time at least.
What do you think?
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 13 queries.