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Author Topic: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions  (Read 10585 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: September 09, 2011, 10:36:38 am »
Hi,
The 2012 Republican Primary Predictions are now enabled.  Please report any issues.

Summary Compiled Map
« Last Edit: September 09, 2011, 11:47:41 am by Dave Leip »Logged
Jayhawker
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 pm »
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Thank you Dave! Smiley
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A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives.
-Jackie Robinson

Quote from: John_Engle on November 02, 2012, 04:25:37 pm
Tmthforu94

You are very kind my Friend. Thank you and God bless the people like You.
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2011, 05:55:48 pm »
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Awesome.

Thanks, Dave.
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Californian Tony
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 pm »
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Quote from: Tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 pm
Thank you Dave! Smiley
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Truer today than it was yesterday.


"A good portion of this country has created an alternate universe. I call this place were these folks live Bullsh*t Mountain. The denizens of Bullsh*t Mountain believe many things: they believe that a Kenyan Muslim President has fundamentally changed the relationship between government and the people of this country."

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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2011, 12:38:39 pm »
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Quote from: Fast Drei Prozent on September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 pm
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 pm
Thank you Dave! Smiley
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Senator Ben
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2011, 06:53:27 pm »
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Quote from: Emile Hirsch on September 11, 2011, 12:38:39 pm
Quote from: Fast Drei Prozent on September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 pm
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 pm
Thank you Dave! Smiley
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2011, 08:46:46 pm »
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And now Paul has a state.

The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.

EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:

Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3

Which looks about right.
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Quote from: Big Wiggly Style on April 13, 2013, 08:47:37 am
oh Vosem, you poor boy...

Quote from: Vosem on January 12, 2013, 05:05:23 pm
Economic score: +4.84
Social score: -6.52

At this rate, I'll lean left economically within a year or so Tongue
Duke David
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 am »
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Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?
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  Wink Cheesy Cool Embarrassed Grin Huh Kiss Lips sealed Roll Eyes Sad Shocked Smiley Tongue Undecided Angry
 
Economic: -8.30 / Social: +7.09
Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2011, 05:20:49 pm »
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Quote from: Atheist2006 on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 am
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's fairly well liked. But most of the people here don't think he'll win any states.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2011, 05:45:43 pm »
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Quote from: Atheist2006 on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 am
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party
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N.i.K.
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2011, 07:11:47 pm »
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Quote from: Governor of the Mideast A-Bob on October 01, 2011, 05:45:43 pm
Quote from: Atheist2006 on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 am
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party

Understatement of the century.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2011, 09:55:32 pm »
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New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.
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Quote from: Big Wiggly Style on April 13, 2013, 08:47:37 am
oh Vosem, you poor boy...

Quote from: Vosem on January 12, 2013, 05:05:23 pm
Economic score: +4.84
Social score: -6.52

At this rate, I'll lean left economically within a year or so Tongue
Californian Tony
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 am »
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Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".
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Truer today than it was yesterday.


"A good portion of this country has created an alternate universe. I call this place were these folks live Bullsh*t Mountain. The denizens of Bullsh*t Mountain believe many things: they believe that a Kenyan Muslim President has fundamentally changed the relationship between government and the people of this country."

Jon Stewart
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2011, 03:49:55 pm »
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Quote from: Antonio V on October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 am
Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".

^

Will others get colors as they come into major play. I'm thinking Cain, Gingrich, and possibly Christie if he enters.
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N.i.K.
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2011, 04:56:11 pm »
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I think we need to replace Huntsman with someone else, since Cain and Gingrich both do better than him and don't have their own colors.
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2011, 06:11:59 pm »
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Quote from: Vosem on October 01, 2011, 09:55:32 pm
New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.

You were right, Perry is now 3rd place in polls, Cain is 2nd, and Romney is 1st.
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- Jacob Tiver Tongue
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2011, 08:43:51 pm »
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It may be prudent to give Cain a new color, as well as Gingrich.

Perhaps Huntsman's red can be swapped to Cain, and Bachmann's orange to Gingrich?
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Odysseus for Mideast Assembly!

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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2011, 05:34:40 pm »
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I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.
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Quote from: Badger on September 22, 2012, 12:17:40 pm
Quote from: For a Few Dollars More on September 22, 2012, 09:22:12 am
Reading the 3012 boards dulls one's sense of irony.

Seriously. How many times can we read about the Obamachine 3000 pulling ahead of the Reagantronix QLZ in the race for Mars Mutant Colony's 48 electoral votes? Sheesh!
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2011, 11:53:10 am »
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OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:

Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178

Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.
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Quote from: Big Wiggly Style on April 13, 2013, 08:47:37 am
oh Vosem, you poor boy...

Quote from: Vosem on January 12, 2013, 05:05:23 pm
Economic score: +4.84
Social score: -6.52

At this rate, I'll lean left economically within a year or so Tongue
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2011, 07:32:40 pm »
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Quote from: Icefire9 on October 11, 2011, 05:34:40 pm
I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.

Well, I can only judge from my own opinions, but I believe there's two things at work here.

1)  There's a lot of flux right now, things changing fast, etc, and no one's really sure how it'll even be next week.

2)  People's opinions of Cain in particular are changing pretty fast.  Some thing he's a fad, some think he's here to stay, even more aren't sure either way...

I personally was going to wait until things settle to make my next version, but it'd been awhile, so I made one today.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2011, 05:11:35 pm »
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Romney: 282
Cain: 177
Perry: 69
Bachmann: 10

I've been hearing lately that some big money donors are giving Gingrich a second look, though, so I may revisit this.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2011, 07:28:49 pm »
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Gingrich has his own color. I guess Cain will stay with purple?
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Chareth Cutestory
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2011, 10:02:56 am »
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I just changed the overall map for the first time. SWEET. Virginia to Romney, thank you very much. Tongue

EDIT: AND Nebraska, whaaaat
« Last Edit: November 14, 2011, 08:50:12 pm by fezzyfestoon »Logged
Pirate lawyer
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« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 pm »
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While I hadn't done so intentionally, of the predictions favorable to Newt:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?sort=9

I currently have the most favorable:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=410

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)
« Last Edit: November 14, 2011, 10:04:47 pm by True Federalist »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2011, 03:06:38 am »
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Quote from: True Federalist on November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 pm
(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)
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What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch this video of Dave being briefed by the mods.

Quote from: Lunar on March 20, 2011, 10:58:04 am
Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
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