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Author Topic: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions  (Read 15039 times)
True Federalist
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« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2011, 11:14:57 pm »
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I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.
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My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
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« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2011, 03:41:43 pm »
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I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.

I was a bit more generous, but my new prediction is also a Gingrich victory.

Here it is.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2011, 03:44:34 pm by Blackwater NiK »Logged

#Ready4Nixon
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« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2011, 09:11:55 am »
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How do you make these maps.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2011, 10:49:08 am »
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How do you make these maps.

Get an account on the Atlas site (not the forum), click on the prediction map, and click "Create Prediction".

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=495

^mine
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« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2011, 03:53:35 pm »
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And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink
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« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2011, 04:20:42 pm »
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And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
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« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2011, 09:56:11 pm »
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And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2011, 06:51:18 pm »
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And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. Wink

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.

Altho arguably, Dave should replace the non-binding Missouri primary that will be held on 7 February with the binding Missouri caucus that will be held on 17 March, and Gingrich certainly will be a player for that if the nomination is still in doubt.
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My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
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« Reply #33 on: December 08, 2011, 04:27:57 pm »
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I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #34 on: December 19, 2011, 09:12:50 am »
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First prediction, partly based on 538's forecasts and partly personal guesswork due to the current trends.



Iowa : Gingrich is going down quickly and Paul seems narrowly ahead. Looks like it will be a dead heat between Paul and Romney, but Paul is more likely to benefit from the momentum.

NH : Hard to see Romney losing now that its most serious contender seems gone. However, I'll wait for Iowa before giving any certainty to my prediction.

SC and Florida : Gingrich had a solid lead in previous polls, but IA and NH will most likely ruin his momentum and he might very way lose there too.

Of course, more serious predictions can be done only after Iowa.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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Dave Leip
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« Reply #35 on: December 21, 2011, 02:32:58 pm »

Hi,
Note that the primary election dates have been updated and that the MO contest has replaced the Primary with the Caucus.

Dave
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« Reply #36 on: December 26, 2011, 05:33:43 pm »
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I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.

You can update it as it goes on.
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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« Reply #37 on: December 30, 2011, 06:37:10 pm »
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Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #38 on: January 03, 2012, 11:31:34 am »
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Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

Indeed. But meanwhile, he keeps stealing States to Gingrich (FL and SD recently, MO now being tied...). TX has also switched back to Perry for some reason.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
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« Reply #39 on: January 03, 2012, 11:34:54 am »
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Final prediction before Iowa.



Of course everything might change after that.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #40 on: January 03, 2012, 03:45:12 pm »
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We all saw how far Gingrich dropped once the negativity hit him in Iowa. From early to mid-December, Gingrich's lead in South Carolina went from around 20 points to 12, according to Insider Advantage. At this point, his lead is probably smaller than that, and considering he probably won't have strong (Top 3) showings in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as well as his lack of finances, I have a hard time seeing him win South Carolina, thus the nomination. It's going to be an interesting battle in South Carolina, to say the least. Wink
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« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2012, 10:13:05 pm »
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Are the color changes on the Iowa results page here going to be reflected in the predictions?

Rick Santorum being blue, Newt Gingrich being orange, etc
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Antonio V
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« Reply #42 on: January 04, 2012, 12:24:05 pm »
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Updated prediction. SC is a guesswork, but I'm fairly confident Santorum will pull ahead there in next polls.

My Iowa prediction turned to be correct (unfortunately). Sad
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #43 on: January 04, 2012, 11:59:34 pm »
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People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
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gobigreds
Stormyphil2
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Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
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« Reply #44 on: January 05, 2012, 10:51:48 am »
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People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?
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« Reply #45 on: January 05, 2012, 01:31:53 pm »
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People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #46 on: January 06, 2012, 05:30:23 am »
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People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

Sorry, but no. The race was objectively a tossup. Whether Romney won or not, you can't say it was a good thing to say the race was "lean Romney".
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #47 on: January 06, 2012, 05:42:07 pm »
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No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. Angry
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All In For KC
tmthforu94
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« Reply #48 on: January 08, 2012, 01:08:27 pm »
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No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. Angry
Amen. Yes, it was a very close race, practically a toss-up, but the fact remains that Romney received more votes than any other candidate, and those who predicted that it would happen should be "rewarded" for their prediction.
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« Reply #49 on: January 09, 2012, 02:26:03 pm »
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Dave,
This alas desperately needs to be updated!
ht.../PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php
Michelle Bachmann is gone, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum should be included for a short time at least.
What do you think?
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