2012 Republican Primary Predictions

[True Federalist]

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)

Will Mitt even be on the ballot in Utah?  Given that Utah is the very last GOP primary for now, if Mitt concedes early enough his campaign might not file and/or ask for a refund of the filing fee.

[True Federalist]

I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.

[N.i.K.]

I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.

I was a bit more generous, but my new prediction is also a Gingrich victory.

Here it is.

[CathKhan]

How do you make these maps.

[Senator Snowstalker]

How do you make these maps.

Get an account on the Atlas site (not the forum), click on the prediction map, and click "Create Prediction".

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=495

^mine

[Jayhawker]

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones.

[Senator Snowstalker]

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones.

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.

[Jayhawker]

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones.

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.

That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.

[True Federalist]

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones.

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.

That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.

Altho arguably, Dave should replace the non-binding Missouri primary that will be held on 7 February with the binding Missouri caucus that will be held on 17 March, and Gingrich certainly will be a player for that if the nomination is still in doubt.

[Yelnoc]

I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.

[Californian Tony]

First prediction, partly based on 538's forecasts and partly personal guesswork due to the current trends.

Iowa : Gingrich is going down quickly and Paul seems narrowly ahead. Looks like it will be a dead heat between Paul and Romney, but Paul is more likely to benefit from the momentum.

NH : Hard to see Romney losing now that its most serious contender seems gone. However, I'll wait for Iowa before giving any certainty to my prediction.

SC and Florida : Gingrich had a solid lead in previous polls, but IA and NH will most likely ruin his momentum and he might very way lose there too.

Of course, more serious predictions can be done only after Iowa.

[Dave Leip]

Hi,
Note that the primary election dates have been updated and that the MO contest has replaced the Primary with the Caucus.

Dave

[Χahar]

I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.

You can update it as it goes on.

[Harry Hayfield]

Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

[Californian Tony]

Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

Indeed. But meanwhile, he keeps stealing States to Gingrich (FL and SD recently, MO now being tied...). TX has also switched back to Perry for some reason.

[Californian Tony]

Final prediction before Iowa.



Of course everything might change after that.

[Jayhawker]

We all saw how far Gingrich dropped once the negativity hit him in Iowa. From early to mid-December, Gingrich's lead in South Carolina went from around 20 points to 12, according to Insider Advantage. At this point, his lead is probably smaller than that, and considering he probably won't have strong (Top 3) showings in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as well as his lack of finances, I have a hard time seeing him win South Carolina, thus the nomination. It's going to be an interesting battle in South Carolina, to say the least.

[Odysseus]

Are the color changes on the Iowa results page here going to be reflected in the predictions?

Rick Santorum being blue, Newt Gingrich being orange, etc

[Californian Tony]

Updated prediction. SC is a guesswork, but I'm fairly confident Santorum will pull ahead there in next polls.

My Iowa prediction turned to be correct (unfortunately).

[Hatman]

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

[Harry Hayfield]

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

[Hatman]

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

[Californian Tony]

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

Sorry, but no. The race was objectively a tossup. Whether Romney won or not, you can't say it was a good thing to say the race was "lean Romney".

[N.i.K.]

No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing.

[Jayhawker]

No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing.

Amen. Yes, it was a very close race, practically a toss-up, but the fact remains that Romney received more votes than any other candidate, and those who predicted that it would happen should be "rewarded" for their prediction.