Future PA-13 races

[Keystone Phil]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

[TeePee4Prez]

Innamorado sounds a lot like 'enamorado', which is Spanish for 'in love'

My last name means "in love" in Italian.

Have no idea what mine means in Gaelic.

[PBrunsel]

We've had enough of this conversation in the Congressional board, dow e have to have it here too?

[Keystone Phil]

We've had enough of this conversation in the Congressional board, dow e have to have it here too?

It's a "what if" PBrunsel 

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

Yes, i'll stop.  We shouldn't talk about anyone.  To tell you the truth, I don't even know what my ability would be in politics.

[Akno21]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

There you go, Akno. You now know my last name  

Now your parents don't have to die in a terrorist attack on Philly

I got the morato part right.

You said it was Samuruto.

   Samuruto
Innamorato

I got that the r is 4th to last correct. And that the m is 6th to last. And a 7th to last. 5 letters in the right place. I got half your name right.

[Keystone Phil]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

Yes, i'll stop.  We shouldn't talk about anyone.  To tell you the truth, I don't even know what my ability would be in politics.

There are plenty of  Howard Dean liberals in Montco  

[Keystone Phil]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

There you go, Akno. You now know my last name  

Now your parents don't have to die in a terrorist attack on Philly

I got the morato part right.

You said it was Samuruto.

   Samuruto
Innamorato

I got that the r is 4th to last correct. And that the m is 6th to last. And a 7th to last. 5 letters in the right place. I got half your name right.

Whatever you say, Akno.... 

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

Yes, i'll stop.  We shouldn't talk about anyone.  To tell you the truth, I don't even know what my ability would be in politics.

There are plenty of  Howard Dean liberals in Montco  

I know that.  I can probably switch gears to Mayfair tap rooms easily though.  Might help.  Funny I don't think many people confront candidates on abortion or social issues as much as they used to around here.  In the 1980s, I would say a lot moreso.   

[Keystone Phil]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

Yes, i'll stop.  We shouldn't talk about anyone.  To tell you the truth, I don't even know what my ability would be in politics.

There are plenty of  Howard Dean liberals in Montco  

I know that.  I can probably switch gears to Mayfair tap rooms easily though.  Might help.  Funny I don't think many people confront candidates on abortion or social issues as much as they used to around here.  In the 1980s, I would say a lot moreso.   

They don't really confront candidates about the abortion issue that much if they meet them but if they hear about it through TV or whatever, it would make them think about their vote (in certain areas of the NE).

[TeePee4Prez]

Well I think this should go to the PA 13 thread to avoid disgruntled folk in here.

[Keystone Phil]

Well I think this should go to the PA 13 thread to avoid disgruntled folk in here.

Oh come on! It's a "what if" scenario 

[TeePee4Prez]

I'd like to hear some of your what if scenarios.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd like to hear some of your what if scenarios.

I'll get working on them but they'll be in favor of the GOP 

[Keystone Phil]

2006 - Stack vs. Castor

Incumbent Allyson Schwartz decides that after only one term in the U.S. that she wants to take on Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senatorial race (which she loses by 10 points...).

State Senator Mike Stack, who recently moved into PA 13, decides that after winning re-election by 32 points, that he can win a Congressional race. He wins a tough primary against State Rep. Mark Cohen, winning by just 2 points.

On the Republican side, Montco DA Bruce Castor runs unopposed in the Republican primary (after Al Taubenberger drops his bid after only two months in the race).

The General Election arrives, Stack takes the NE by a good margin but Castor wins Montco easily.

Castor - 54%
Stack - 44%
Other - 2%

2008 - Castor vs. Cohen

Cohen wins the Dem nomination with no competition but the General Election brings yet another big Castor win.

Castor - 56%
Cohen - 43%
Other - 1%

2010 - Taylor vs. McGeehan

Castor decides not to seek re-election. Instead, he runs in the GOP primary for Specter's open Senate seat. Rep. John Taylor of the Northeast Philadelphia runs in the GOP primary against Ellen Bard. Taylor wins big in the Philly section of the district but has a tough time in Montco. He still wins the nomination, though, and is starting his General Election campaign.

Mike McGeehan, recently elected to the City Council, decides to run in the Democratic primary. Allyson Schwartz, the former Congresswoman, decides she'd like to take the seat back. She jumps in the race and is seen by most to be the favorite. The Primary arrives and the upset happens. McGeehan unites the NE Dems and has a big turnout at the polls. McGeehan - 51%   Schwartz - 49%.

Taylor vs. McGeehan is seen as a battle for the NE in the General Election. In the end, Taylor wins the NE by a narrow margin: 51-49.  Montco is another big fight but with Castor's vocal support for Taylor, the Republican State Rep. wins the county.

Taylor - 51%
McGeehan - 48%
Other - 1%

More to come tomorrow...

[TeePee4Prez]

2006 - Stack vs. Castor

Incumbent Allyson Schwartz decides that after only one term in the U.S. that she wants to take on Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senatorial race (which she loses by 10 points...).

State Senator Mike Stack, who recently moved into PA 13, decides that after winning re-election by 32 points, that he can win a Congressional race. He wins a tough primary against State Rep. Mark Cohen, winning by just 2 points.

On the Republican side, Montco DA Bruce Castor runs unopposed in the Republican primary (after Al Taubenberger drops his bid after only two months in the race).

The General Election arrives, Stack takes the NE by a good margin but Castor wins Montco easily.

Castor - 54%
Stack - 44%
Other - 2%

Won't happen.  Schwartz will hold this seat.  She'd be foolish to attempt the Senate.  Castor has said repeatedly he will not run.

2008 - Castor vs. Cohen

Cohen wins the Dem nomination with no competition but the General Election brings yet another big Castor win.

Castor - 56%
Cohen - 43%
Other - 1%

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The Dems will NEVER elect Cohen.  For crying out loud the guy's Quasimodo and has poor speaking skills.  The Dems will fins someone more articulate to beat him easily.  I do like the fact Cohen is involved with growing the party, but for Congress, NO WAY!

2010 - Taylor vs. McGeehan

Castor decides not to seek re-election. Instead, he runs in the GOP primary for Specter's open Senate seat. Rep. John Taylor of the Northeast Philadelphia runs in the GOP primary against Ellen Bard. Taylor wins big in the Philly section of the district but has a tough time in Montco. He still wins the nomination, though, and is starting his General Election campaign.

Mike McGeehan, recently elected to the City Council, decides to run in the Democratic primary. Allyson Schwartz, the former Congresswoman, decides she'd like to take the seat back. She jumps in the race and is seen by most to be the favorite. The Primary arrives and the upset happens. McGeehan unites the NE Dems and has a big turnout at the polls. McGeehan - 51%   Schwartz - 49%.

Taylor vs. McGeehan is seen as a battle for the NE in the General Election. In the end, Taylor wins the NE by a narrow margin: 51-49.  Montco is another big fight but with Castor's vocal support for Taylor, the Republican State Rep. wins the county.

Taylor - 51%
McGeehan - 48%
Other - 1%

More to come tomorrow...

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Funny, I like McGeehan.  Despite the fact he's pro-life, I would consider him.  Race would NEVER come to fruition though.

[Keystone Phil]

2006 - Stack vs. Castor

Incumbent Allyson Schwartz decides that after only one term in the U.S. that she wants to take on Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senatorial race (which she loses by 10 points...).

State Senator Mike Stack, who recently moved into PA 13, decides that after winning re-election by 32 points, that he can win a Congressional race. He wins a tough primary against State Rep. Mark Cohen, winning by just 2 points.

On the Republican side, Montco DA Bruce Castor runs unopposed in the Republican primary (after Al Taubenberger drops his bid after only two months in the race).

The General Election arrives, Stack takes the NE by a good margin but Castor wins Montco easily.

Castor - 54%
Stack - 44%
Other - 2%

Won't happen.  Schwartz will hold this seat.  She'd be foolish to attempt the Senate.  Castor has said repeatedly he will not run.

2008 - Castor vs. Cohen

Cohen wins the Dem nomination with no competition but the General Election brings yet another big Castor win.

Castor - 56%
Cohen - 43%
Other - 1%

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The Dems will NEVER elect Cohen.  For crying out loud the guy's Quasimodo and has poor speaking skills.  The Dems will fins someone more articulate to beat him easily.  I do like the fact Cohen is involved with growing the party, but for Congress, NO WAY!

2010 - Taylor vs. McGeehan

Castor decides not to seek re-election. Instead, he runs in the GOP primary for Specter's open Senate seat. Rep. John Taylor of the Northeast Philadelphia runs in the GOP primary against Ellen Bard. Taylor wins big in the Philly section of the district but has a tough time in Montco. He still wins the nomination, though, and is starting his General Election campaign.

Mike McGeehan, recently elected to the City Council, decides to run in the Democratic primary. Allyson Schwartz, the former Congresswoman, decides she'd like to take the seat back. She jumps in the race and is seen by most to be the favorite. The Primary arrives and the upset happens. McGeehan unites the NE Dems and has a big turnout at the polls. McGeehan - 51%   Schwartz - 49%.

Taylor vs. McGeehan is seen as a battle for the NE in the General Election. In the end, Taylor wins the NE by a narrow margin: 51-49.  Montco is another big fight but with Castor's vocal support for Taylor, the Republican State Rep. wins the county.

Taylor - 51%
McGeehan - 48%
Other - 1%

More to come tomorrow...

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Funny, I like McGeehan.  Despite the fact he's pro-life, I would consider him.  Race would NEVER come to fruition though.

Remember I did say this was supposed to favor the Republicans

Schwartz would be foolish to run for Senate but that doesn't mean she won't do it. And when did Castor say he would not run? I know there have been rumors but did he ever come out and say he will not be a candidate?

When it comes to Cohen, I know he doesn't present himself in a great manner but remember the situation. Castor is in Congress, seen as the favorite so the Dems let Cohen win the nomination. I remember when he was running earlier this year. He had no chance and dropped out after a few months.

Taylor vs. McGeehan - I don't think this scenario could happen either but this was put together to make things interesting.

More to come. I might work on something tonight.

[Keystone Phil]

From 2012-2018 Taylor wins re-election with little opposition.

2020 - DeFelice vs. Boyle

John Taylor decides to retire from politics in 2020. Republican attorney Joe DeFelice decides to run for Congress. Democratic ward leader Kevin Boyle is urged to run but at first doesn't like the idea. After no Democrat enters the primary, Boyle decides to run.

General Election

DeFelice - 52%
Boyle - 48%

For the next four elections, DeFelice wins re-election with no serious competition; however, the highest percent he'll ever receive when running for re-election is 56%.

2030 - Innamorato vs.Guinan

DeFelice is expected to run for re-election but shocks everyone with an announcement that he will retire. Republican Phil Innamorato wins the primary with no serious competition   while Democrat Pat Guinan struggles through his primary. Guinan's opponent, a moderate Democrat, claims Guinan will make it tougher for the Democrats to take back the seat after Republican control for 24 years. Guinan narrowly wins the primary and now must unite his party.

General Election

Innamorato vs, Guinan. Who wins this race that will go down in political history as one of the toughest, most interesting Congressional campaigns in Pennsylvania history?

We will never know...


Now, BL, I will admit that realistically, the Republicans cannot hold this seat for 24 years straight. It's tough for the GOP to win just one election here so it should be obvious that this was kind of a Republican Dream scenario.

For the 2030 race, I think you would have the edge but I honestly don't know which one of us would emerge victorious. We will have to see how it turns out...if it ever happens...

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll admit though the Republicans may in fact have this seat for about 6 of the next 24 years.  Thing is the 13th could be in Central PA and completely new districts could be the result of the next Census.  Now I like the Boyles, but they would not make it out of a primary because they are pro-life if the 13th were to stay intact. 

Oh geez, I'm not that liberal.  I'm probably a tad to the right of Schwartz.  I'll admit that between Schwartz and Torsella in terms of ideology, I probably was closer to Schwartz, but Torsella's potential winnability was the key factor in my decision.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh geez, I'm not that liberal.  I'm probably a tad to the right of Schwartz.  I'll admit that between Schwartz and Torsella in terms of ideology, I probably was closer to Schwartz

Being "a tad to the right" of Schwartz isn't saying much. That's still pretty liberal. The way I see it, you would run on economic issues in the NE and I would focus more on social issues in an Innamorato-Guinan race. I think your liberalism would cost you the NE but it would be very close. You'd have the edge in Montco.

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh geez, I'm not that liberal.  I'm probably a tad to the right of Schwartz.  I'll admit that between Schwartz and Torsella in terms of ideology, I probably was closer to Schwartz

The way I see it, you would run on economic issues in the NE and I would focus more on social issues in an Innamorato-Guinan race.

DING! DING!

[nini2287]

Just to comment from a Montco perspective:

You are right, Weber has a good chance of picking her seat back up in 2006...the only reason she lost this year was because of the Rendell flap.

KP is right Jon Fox is done with politics, after losing a state house race by 10 points (also considering it was held by a very popular Republican), I highly, highly doubt we'll hear from him again.

Josh Shaprio will run for PA-13 before 2018.  I expect him to run when Schwartz goes for the open seat vacated by Specter in 2010 or perhaps a state office sometime sooner.

[TeePee4Prez]

Just to comment from a Montco perspective:

You are right, Weber has a good chance of picking her seat back up in 2006...the only reason she lost this year was because of the Rendell flap.

KP is right Jon Fox is done with politics, after losing a state house race by 10 points (also considering it was held by a very popular Republican), I highly, highly doubt we'll hear from him again.

Josh Shaprio will run for PA-13 before 2018.  I expect him to run when Schwartz goes for the open seat vacated by Specter in 2010 or perhaps a state office sometime sooner.

Keep posting here more often, I clueless to Montco politics.  All I know is the Dems out there are mostly ardent social liberals, but you apparently are the exception.  How often do you find a pro-life Montco Dem?  I sometimes find myself the minority in many places in NE Philly for being pro-choice even among Dems.     

I hope Gerber can keep his seat and I think he just may.  Do you think we'd ever hear from Ellen Bard again? 

[Keystone Phil]

Just to comment from a Montco perspective:

You are right, Weber has a good chance of picking her seat back up in 2006...the only reason she lost this year was because of the Rendell flap.

KP is right Jon Fox is done with politics, after losing a state house race by 10 points (also considering it was held by a very popular Republican), I highly, highly doubt we'll hear from him again.

Josh Shaprio will run for PA-13 before 2018.  I expect him to run when Schwartz goes for the open seat vacated by Specter in 2010 or perhaps a state office sometime sooner.

Keep posting here more often, I clueless to Montco politics.  All I know is the Dems out there are mostly ardent social liberals, but you apparently are the exception.  How often do you find a pro-life Montco Dem?  I sometimes find myself the minority in many places in NE Philly for being pro-choice even among Dems.     

I hope Gerber can keep his seat and I think he just may.  Do you think we'd ever hear from Ellen Bard again? 

Gerber won't hold that seat long. Bard will run again....and lose 

I agree with nini that Shapiro will run for PA 13 when Schwartz is done UNLESS she gives up the seat before 2010. He needs to get some experience in the State House.

[nini2287]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bard run again, she's leaving office with 80% approval ratings and I wonder if she might run for state senate if Stu Greenleaf retires in the near future (I doubt he'll try for PA-13 again, though)

I think if Weber runs for the State House seat again she could win it back provided she doesn't screw up (she ran commericals/ sent ads implying that Rendell had endorsed her, and then he threatened to sue her ).