Presidential elections, 2012-2024

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

2012:

President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 314 electoral votes
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal: 224 electoral votes

2016:

Former Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)/Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR): 303 electoral votes
Former Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal (R-LA)/Senator John Cornyn (R-TX): 235 electoral votes

2020:

Former Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 271 electoral votes
President Martin O'Malley (D-MD)/Vice President Mark Pryor (D-AR): 267 electoral votes

2024:

President Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT)/Vice President Marco Rubio (R-FL): 351 electoral votes
Former Vice President Mark Pryor (D-AR)/Congressman Dave Forester (D-MI): 187 electoral votes

[Mr.Phips]

Great, how low will this push Democrats in Congress and state legislatures.  Will they be below 180 seats in the House and down to around six state legislatures?

[greenforest32]

2012 and 2016 seem reasonable but I think you lose it after that. Why do so many people assume that Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico will flip to R if Republicans choose a hispanic conservative like Rubio? Didn't work for McCain with Palin and the women vote and it isn't going to work for this either. Ain't happening.

And LOL @ the 2020/2024 maps. You think Republicans are going to become more moderate? Nope. Their current crop of 2012 candidates is the most conservative ever as the Republican base is nearly 70% conservative: http://www.gallup.com/poll/141032/2010-Conservatives-Outnumber-Moderates-Liberals.aspx



They are going to implode in a fit of conservatism in the 2020s or 2030s. There's no way they're going to nominate a moderatish candidate like Huntsman in 2020/2024.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

That's the point. After congressional failures and shellacking in presidential elections, moderate Republicans rise up much like moderate Democrats had their heyday in the late 80's and early 90's.

2020 wasn't actually because of Rubio; instead, Huntsman focused on winning the West, and had a moderate immigration policy.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my thoughts:


2012

President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden 332 EV  51.4%
Governor Rick Perry/Governor John Kasich    206  EV  47.6%

2016

Governor Susana Martinez/Governor Tom Corbett  300 EV  50.8%
Governor Andrew Cuomo/Senator Kay Hagan  238 EV 48.1%

2020

President Susana Martinez/Vice President Tom Corbett  367 EV  53.8%
Senator Deval Patrick/ Former Governor Brian Schweitzer  171 EV  44.9%

2024

Former Governor Tom Perriello*/Senator Amy Klobuchar  371 EV  54.3%
Vice President Tom Corbett/ Senator Nikki Haley               127 EV   44.9%

*Elected Governor of Virginia in 2017

[heatmaster]

Anybody going to go for 2028 or 2032?

[Mr. Morden]

The most unrealistic aspect of Snowstalker's scenario is neither party nominating a woman for president or VP through 2024.  Given what happened in 2008, I'm guessing that there's a >90% chance that the Democratic ticket in 2016 will include a woman, either as prez or VP.

[Skill and Chance]

The most unrealistic aspect of Snowstalker's scenario is neither party nominating a woman for president or VP through 2024.  Given what happened in 2008, I'm guessing that there's a >90% chance that the Democratic ticket in 2016 will include a woman, either as prez or VP.

I'm actually quite confident that the first woman president will be a Republican.  All of the Democratic rising stars right now are men: Cuomo, O'Malley, Warner, Hickenlooper, Schweitzer, etc.  All they have is Klobuchar and Gillibrand who would be capable of winning nationally, and Gillibrand is completely overshadowed by Cuomo.

Contrast that with Kelly Ayotte, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, Mary Fallin, Snowe and Collins, etc.  All of these people could easily win in 2016 (although Snowe/Collins would obviously need a collapse of the Tea Party first).

[greenforest32]

The most unrealistic aspect of Snowstalker's scenario is neither party nominating a woman for president or VP through 2024.  Given what happened in 2008, I'm guessing that there's a >90% chance that the Democratic ticket in 2016 will include a woman, either as prez or VP.

I'm actually quite confident that the first woman president will be a Republican.  All of the Democratic rising stars right now are men: Cuomo, O'Malley, Warner, Hickenlooper, Schweitzer, etc.  All they have is Klobuchar and Gillibrand who would be capable of winning nationally, and Gillibrand is completely overshadowed by Cuomo.

Contrast that with Kelly Ayotte, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, Mary Fallin, Snowe and Collins, etc.  All of these people could easily win in 2016 (although Snowe/Collins would obviously need a collapse of the Tea Party first).

These women may be viable candidates for the Republican primary in 2016 but they will definitely not be viable candidates in the 2016 general election. Just like most all of the candidates running in 2012's Republican primary.

Social conservatism isn't going anywhere but down folks.

[ShamDam]

Is it irrelevant to think that Gillibrand and Klobuchar would have trouble making the big time because they have weird names? I feel like the same applies to Schweitzer.

[Penelope]

Is it irrelevant to think that Gillibrand and Klobuchar would have trouble making the big time because they have weird names? I feel like the same applies to Schweitzer.

Those guys? No.

Hickenlooper? Yes.

[Skill and Chance]

Is it irrelevant to think that Gillibrand and Klobuchar would have trouble making the big time because they have weird names? I feel like the same applies to Schweitzer.

Those guys? No.

Hickenlooper? Yes.

Hickenlooper vs. Huckabee 2016!

[qochimodo]

That's the point. After congressional failures and shellacking in presidential elections, moderate Republicans rise up much like moderate Democrats had their heyday in the late 80's and early 90's.

2020 wasn't actually because of Rubio; instead, Huntsman focused on winning the West, and had a moderate immigration policy.

Ha! Huntsman maybe a moderate socially, but economically? You think someone who embraces Paul Ryan's plan that raises middle class taxes + guts and privatizes Medicare to give millionaires another huge tax break is going the be the answer to an electorate that thinks your party is to far to the right? Give me a break!

Hell if Romney is the GOP nominee this year he will probably be running on an economic platform 3 steps to the left of Huntsman.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

How do you post EV maps?