NOW, NARAL, etc., it's time for a war

[So the Heroes Fall]

County maps in Mississippi are almost always boring as hell. This one will likely be an exception.

[nclib]

County maps in Mississippi are almost always boring as hell. This one will likely be an exception.

Yes. Harry, what do you think will be the best counties against this?

[Harry]

Nothing out of the ordinary probably, though the university counties (Oktibbeha, Lafayette, Forrest) will probably have a stronger "no" than one might expect from looking at other MS maps.

I really have no idea how blacks are going to vote on this.  The NAACP is strongly opposed, but I don't really know how black preachers are approaching it.

Honestly, I really have no idea how anyone is going to vote on it, but gun to my head, I'm going to predict a 56-44 pass, which is frustrating.  However, conservatives were all predicting "yes" getting in 80s a few months ago, so that's saying something.  I don't think they anticipated nearly as much pro-life backlash.

[Tender Branson]

PPP should have numbers out on this tonight.

Don't know how this is playing out, but it could narrowly pass. I think many Blacks will vote for it too.

[realisticidealist]

Yeah, I'm not really sure where the main opposition is going to come from. Jackson, the coast, and the college counties? That doesn't seem like enough to me. The black areas will probably be more against it than the white areas, but I don't think it'll be that strong of a racial divide.

[Marston]

Wow.

It only leads 45-44.

[Harry]

I just jumped up and down with some dramatic fist waving.  I'm really pumped up right now.

[Harry]

Everyone already knows they think about abortion, so anyone who's undecided about 26 realizes this is about way more than just abortion.

For the most part, if you're voting "yes," you're doing so as a knee-jerk anti-abortion vote, and you've already decided to do so.  I think the undecideds are going to break heavily toward "no," so if the 45-44-11 numbers are correct, I'm really optimistic.

[Vasall des Midas]

Searching for a link on that poll, and preferably crosstabs etc, and came up emptyhanded.

Found this internet poll instead

"How do you plan to vote on Proposition 26 (Personhood Amendment) in the November 8th election?
I will vote for Proposition 26.
   31.3%
I will vote against Proposition 26.
   61.4%
I have not decided yet.
   4.8%
I will not vote for or against Proposition 26.
   2.4%"

on the website of Tate County's weekly rag. Make of that what thou wilt... but preferrably nothing much.

[Vasall des Midas]

Ah, found it now. Tender posted it over in the other thread.

"Men (48-42), whites (54-37), and Republicans (65-28) support the proposal. But women
(42-46), African Americans (26-59), Democrats (23-61), and independents (35-51)
oppose it. The good news for those opposed to the amendment is that 11% of voters are
undecided and their demographics are 58% women, 54% Democratic, and 42% black - those
still on the fence disproportionately belong to voter groups that oppose the
amendment."

[Vasall des Midas]

Margin of Error issue possibly, but also possibly not:

18 to 29 44% Yes 40% No
30 to 45 41% Yes 48% No
46 to 65 41% Yes 49% No
Over 65  53% Yes 37% No

[Harry]

Today's the big day

[Harry]

Governor
58 Bryant
42 DuPree

AG
56 Hood
44 Simpson

Initiative 26
50.5 No
49.5 Yes

Yes, I'm going to go out on that limb.  The poll inspired me, I believe that most people voting yes do so as a knee jerk anti-abortion reaction. Thus, if a voter is still undecided, he/she is likely to vote no.

[Ebowed]

JACKSON, Miss. -- Mississippi voters shot down a referendum Tuesday that would have effectively banned abortions in the state, rejecting an initiative that said life begins at conception.

The so-called personhood initiative was rejected by more than 55 percent of voters.

[President Marokai]

Big congratulations to Mississippi.

[Frodo]

Harry, out of curiosity, if Referendum 26 had passed what would you have done?  Would that have been the proverbial 'straw that broke the camel's back' that finally persuaded you to move out of Mississippi?

[Ebowed]

The black counties came out quite heavily against this amendment.

[Harry]

Harry, out of curiosity, if Referendum 26 had passed what would you have done?  Would that have been the proverbial 'straw that broke the camel's back' that finally persuaded you to move out of Mississippi?

No, I have a job, family, and 12-month apartment lease here, so I would have definitely stayed.
A few years down the road, though, if it had passed and been upheld (unlikely), I would've had to seriously consider going to another state to start a family, though, just because of the damage to standard safe OB/GYN practices 26 would have done.

[Governor Scott]

Do we have the official county results for this yet?

[Ebowed]

The black counties came out quite heavily against this amendment.

Heavily black Jefferson County also appears to be the only county to (very narrowly) reject the amendment to prohibit eminent domain.

[Harry]

The black counties came out quite heavily against this amendment.

Heavily black Jefferson County also appears to be the only county to (very narrowly) reject the amendment to prohibit eminent domain.

Which is ironic, since Haley Barbour was the high-profile opponent of 31.

[Ogre Mage]

Congrats Harry.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The abortion debate is officially over in this country with this one, guys. All remaining pro-lifers may now return to their caves.

[realisticidealist]

The abortion debate is officially over in this country with this one, guys. All remaining pro-lifers may now return to their caves.

Thank you for your valuable insight on the matter. I'll make sure to keep my cave-dwelling status in mind next time I want to have an opinion.

[Tender Branson]

The abortion debate is officially over in this country with this one, guys. All remaining pro-lifers may now return to their caves.

Well, the abortion debate itself will not be over, but of course the idea of the radicals that a clump of cells similar to a wart is equal to a human being ... Hopefully.