New Mexico

[2952-0-0]

I remember early in the campaign Kerry had huge leads there, even when trailing nationally and sometime in September it flipped and remained a tossup until election day. How come Richardson failed to deliver it when all the pundits said he would?

[King]

Only Zogby showed Kerry with huge leads there, the other pollsters showed it lean Bush/tossup

[2952-0-0]

I watched electoralvote.com

[True Democrat]

Bush started to appeal to Latino voters and got the conservatives mad over Kerry being a liberal.

[Sam Spade]

I watched electoralvote.com

electoralvote.com was run by a lefty who used Zogby Interactive junk.

You should have read this site more, we laughed at that crap.

There weren't many early polls until September from New Mexico, except from ARG and Zogby Interactive (both crap).  That probably shaped everyone's idea of where New Mexico was wrongly.

[Alcon]

I watched electoralvote.com

electoralvote.com was run by a lefty who used Zogby Interactive junk.

You should have read this site more, we laughed at that crap.

There weren't many early polls until September from New Mexico, except from ARG and Zogby Interactive (both crap).  That probably shaped everyone's idea of where New Mexico was wrongly.

electoral-vote.com was good at first, but became flawed when he failed to update it and started missing polls. This caused the site to be pro-Kerry for a while, because he started missing polls when Bush started doing well (I believe this was because of some personal reason that caused updates to be difficult.) Also, it is simply flawed to use the last poll in a state only.

[Hitchabrut]

True, but they did include everything, including the crap that showed it a tie in Maryland and close in Illinois and New York.

[stry_cat]

I watched electoralvote.com

electoralvote.com was run by a lefty who used Zogby Interactive junk.

You should have read this site more, we laughed at that crap.

There weren't many early polls until September from New Mexico, except from ARG and Zogby Interactive (both crap).  That probably shaped everyone's idea of where New Mexico was wrongly.

electoral-vote.com was good at first, but became flawed when he failed to update it and started missing polls. This caused the site to be pro-Kerry for a while, because he started missing polls when Bush started doing well (I believe this was because of some personal reason that caused updates to be difficult.) Also, it is simply flawed to use the last poll in a state only.

I visited that site every day and it was with only 2 or 3 exceptions updated every day by 8am EST.  From what I could tell there were very few if any missed polls.  His system for calling states was flawed.  He tried fixing it by doing some kind of weird average and that made it worse so he went back to using just the very last poll which he had some complex and flawed rules for figuring that out too.  It wasn't about his real life making updates difficult, it was the methodology.  From the guy's postings I think does want to work out a better method and I hope he'll be back in 2008.

[The Vorlon]

I remember early in the campaign Kerry had huge leads there, even when trailing nationally and sometime in September it flipped and remained a tossup until election day. How come Richardson failed to deliver it when all the pundits said he would?

Only Zogby and ARG ever had anybody up more than the MOE.

Zogby is, well, Zogby and ARG pulled a bit left this year.

The average of the last 10 polls from legitimate polling organizations in NM (this excludes Zogby, IMHO) was Bush + 0.5%, the actual was Bush +1.4%

The polls in New Mexco were collectively dead on.

[King]

To prove my previous point that only Zogby (and ARG) showed Kerry with huge leads there, here is a chart from electoral-vote.com:



As you can see, the only parts where Kerry had huge leads in NM dots with a blue circle (Zogby) or orange box (ARG)

[WMS]

I remember early in the campaign Kerry had huge leads there, even when trailing nationally and sometime in September it flipped and remained a tossup until election day. How come Richardson failed to deliver it when all the pundits said he would?

In addition to what everyone else has told you, one more factor:

Richardson was up against the other political power in NM, Senator Pete Domenici, who also campaigned across the state. Domenici narrowly beat Richardson in this knife fight, and won bragging rights until the next election.

[Will F.D. People]

Now that the 2004 election is history, I am thinking that the whole idea of the Governor really helping the nominee is over-rated, and I think New Mexico is a prime example of that.

If I recall, two years ago on election night there was some crowing about how the Democrats picking up some governorships spelled trouble for Bush in 2004. The theory went that with the governor of the state being a Democrat this would make it easier to organize the election campaign in the state of whomever the Democratic nominee was. Never mind that the 2002 election was an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats, who also lost governorships in Democratic stongholds like Hawaii and Maryland; it looked to me like this was the old proverbial trying to put a shine on a sneaker (or something else).

[jacob_101]

Polls were all over the place concerning New Mexico.  Also, Governors don't have much control over "delivering" a state to their party. 

[Gustaf]

Polls were all over the place concerning New Mexico.  Also, Governors don't have much control over "delivering" a state to their party. 

Mayors in Chicago do.

[nclib]

New Mexico was a disappointment, although it actually swung to Bush by less than the national average.