Anti-gay marriage amendment will be on ballot in NC in May 2012

[nclib]

I'm certainly disappointed by this, but I can't say I'm surprised.

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RALEIGH -- Not an hour after the Senate voted Tuesday to put a proposed constitutional same-sex marriage ban on the May ballot, the leader of the gay rights group Equality North Carolina mentioned to a supporter the need to raise millions for a campaign opposing it.

The debates this week in the House and Senate, which voted 30-16 to let voters decide whether to ban same-sex marriage, aired some of the same messages voters will hear in the statewide campaigns in the coming months.

Thirty other states have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage approved by voters. Recent referendum campaigns have cost millions of dollars and engaged national groups such as the Human Rights Campaign and the National Organization for Marriage.

Read more at http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/09/14/1486492/amendment-on-ballot-opposition.html

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The NC GOP preferred to have it in Nov 2012, to drive up conservative turnout. But they needed to convince some anti-gay Dems to support it (who would be concerned about losing with an energized conservative turnout), so they moved it to the primary in May 2012. I have mixed feelings about whether it would be worse to have it with the primary than the general. Having it in the general could cost some Dems their seats. But without Obama or Gov. Perdue (likely) having a serious primary challenge, their may be lower Dem turnout, making it easier to pass. Also, it could result in likely/safe GOP districts being represented by someone even more far-right.

It's possible we could vote against it, though history and location is against us, but nationally these amendments are getting less popular over time.

My guess about the best counties against the amendment would be:

Orange
Buncombe
Durham
Watauga
Guilford
Wake
Jackson
Mecklenburg
Cumberland
Forsyth

[MilesC56]

I'm not exactly shocked either, this is to be expected from Tillis and Berger

[Fritz]

Happening in Minnesota, too.

[greenforest32]

Isn't this (being in May vs November) going to make it more likely to pass as Republicans are having their primary?

[Tender Branson]

Isn't this (being in May vs November) going to make it more likely to pass as Republicans are having their primary?

Well, I guess it's still better in May than in November.

A) The polls are currently pointing strongly in the direction that voters will oppose it - but that assumes that Democrats are turning out in the primary like they would in a general election. That leads us to point B.

B) It depends if the Republican nomination for President is over by May 2012. It also depends on the fact if McCrory gets a credible primary challenger. If these 2 things are not happening, Republican turnout might not be so high and the thing could be rejected.

C) Having this in November would probably benefit the Republican candidate in a close Presidential race.

[Tender Branson]

When PPP last polled North Carolina a week ago, the results were this:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 31%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today, would you vote for or against this amendment?

Would vote for it.............................................. 30%
Would vote against it ...................................... 55%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_09071217.pdf

...

I think it depends on the language of the ballot question. Does it only call for a ban of same-sex marriage, or does it call for a ban on all forms of same-sex partnerships incl. civil unions, registered partnerships etc. ?

This could make the difference to people who are primarily against gay marriage, but would not support the amendment because they favor civil unions and do not want them banned in the constitution.

Anther point could be the fact that North Carolina already has a state statute that bans same-sex marriage, so voters could think: Hey, why having an additional referendum for a constitutional amendment ? That's dispensable.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

I can't say I care, but since so many people on fb are complaining I troll them and tell them I will vote for it. Honestly living in Orange County myself, either way I vote won't have any effect.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The amendment is cleverly worded; it doesn't reference civil unions or domestic partnerships, but the language outlaws them (because it says something like "a marriage between a man and a woman is the only recognized something or other").

Anyway, what a surprise that the Democrats threw gays under a bus. Again.

[nclib]

Let's see which "Democrats" voted for this mess:

Five conservative Dems who usually vote with the GOP:   

1   Owens
2   Spear
20   Hill
22   Brisson
32   Crawford

The first four represented districts carried by McCain, but Crawford's district went for Obama.

Goodman (66) is a pretty conservative Dem whose district voted for McCain.

The other four who voted for the anti-gay amendment are (all from districts that voted Obama): Floyd (43), Graham (47), Pierce (48), and McGuirt (69). Floyd and Pierce are black and Graham is Native American. McGuirt is white and represents Union and Anson county.

The only Dems representing McCain districts that voted against this amendment are Rapp (118) and Haire (119), both in western NC.

The Senate vote was on party lines.

[Χahar]

Honestly living in Orange County myself, either way I vote won't have any effect.

You're aware that referenda don't use the electoral college, yes?

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Honestly living in Orange County myself, either way I vote won't have any effect.

You're aware that referenda don't use the electoral college, yes?

Ah yes, I know, but the People's Republic of Chapel Hill is probably going to throw parades against this thing, and I just don't care enough after how far they will take it.

[Smash255]

Honestly living in Orange County myself, either way I vote won't have any effect.

You're aware that referenda don't use the electoral college, yes?

Ah yes, I know, but the People's Republic of Chapel Hill is probably going to throw parades against this thing, and I just don't care enough after how far they will take it.

Oh that damn fighting not to have discrimination written into the state constitution.....

[Holmes]

Voting for something out of spite of where you live is almost Naso-level strange.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Honestly living in Orange County myself, either way I vote won't have any effect.

You're aware that referenda don't use the electoral college, yes?

Ah yes, I know, but the People's Republic of Chapel Hill is probably going to throw parades against this thing, and I just don't care enough after how far they will take it.

Oh that damn fighting not to have discrimination written into the state constitution.....

Oh damn those people who rage against discrimination and hate and yet will call all those who oppose them stupid rednecks. When it comes down to it I'm more likely to side with a redneck than a  hypocrite.

[Grumps]

To quote waltermitty:  "I weep" for NC.

[The Mikado]

Virginia's 6 years ago got, what, 58%?  I'd say that's a good over-under for this.  Off the top of my head, it seems to me a state like NC will probably vote yes with 54-56% of the vote.

[MilesC56]

Well, a lot of my friends in Research Triangle who have never even bothered to vote are registering just to vote against this. Sadly, I still think the GOP has the upper-hand. I'm usually pretty right-leaning on social issues, but I'll vote against this.

[nclib]

Renee Ellmers (R-NC-2) opposes the anti-gay amendment:

"U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers says that she opposes same-sex marriages but that she intends to vote against a proposed constitutional amendment banning them that will be on the North Carolina ballot in May because it would also ban civil unions.

Ellmers, a conservative Republican, was asked her opinion on the Defense of Marriage amendment during an appearance last week at Campbell University, and her answer might have surprised some listeners.

Dome heard about Ellmers' remarks and asked her office for clarification. Her spokesman, Tom Doheny, confirmed that she planned to vote against the constitutional ban that was adopted by the legislature in September because it is too broadly drawn."

Read more at: http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/10/02/1532832/amendment-is-too-broad-to-get.html

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There's a decent chance we could beat this. It will mainly depend on turnout and voters realizing this goes far beyond banning gay marriage.

Anyone want to take a stab at this:

My guess about the best counties against the amendment would be:

Orange
Buncombe
Durham
Watauga
Guilford
Wake
Jackson
Mecklenburg
Cumberland
Forsyth

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/nc-marriage-amendment-starts-with-lead.html

PPP's first look at the proposed marriage amendment in North Carolina since the legislature placed it on the ballot finds it leading 61-34. Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of it (80/17) and independents (52/43) and Democrats (49/44) support it as well



Landslide.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

can we get this moved to Nov 2012?...I think the voters need 6 more months to think it over

[Joe Republic]

Good to see a healthy democratic majority crushing the rights of the minority.  Democracy wins again!

[nclib]

can we get this moved to Nov 2012?...I think the voters need 6 more months to think it over

The GOP would have preferred that, but compromised to May 2012 to get conservative Democrats to go on board.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Good to see a healthy democratic majority crushing the rights of the minority.  Democracy wins again!

gays would still have the right to marry, it's just that they dont have the right to have their marriages condoned by the state

[Joe Republic]

Good to see a healthy democratic majority crushing the rights of the minority.  Democracy wins again!

gays would still have the right to marry, it's just that they dont have the right to have their marriages condoned by the state

Exactly.  The majority will get to enjoy certain rights that they are denying to the minority.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/nc-marriage-amendment-starts-with-lead.html

PPP's first look at the proposed marriage amendment in North Carolina since the legislature placed it on the ballot finds it leading 61-34. Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of it (80/17) and independents (52/43) and Democrats (49/44) support it as well



Landslide.

Why exactly did the numbers flip since their last poll ?

Last time voters were opposed by 20 points, now they favor it by about 30 ?