Breaking: NH Gov. John Lynch (D) to retire

[Tender Branson]

Gov. Lynch bows out of running for an historic fifth term

By GARRY RAYNO
New Hampshire Union Leader

MANCHESTER - Gov. John Lynch this morning announced he will not seek re-election to a post he has held for the last seven years.

He made the announcement at Manchester’s Northwest Elementary School, the same place he announced his education funding plan

eight years ago when he first ran for governor.

Lynch became governor in 2004 when he defeated first term Gov. Craig Benson in a close election.

Lynch twice won re-election by record margins, and won comfortably last year against former Health and Human Services Commissioner

John Stephen. Lynch was the only major Democratic office holder in New Hampshire to survive the Republican landslide in 2010.

Lynch lives in Hopkinton and served as chair of the University System of New Hampshire Board of Trustees before he ran for governor.

http://unionleader.com/article/20110915/NEWS06/110919925

[Tender Branson]

R+1 ?

[Miles]

Its a shaky R+1 at this point, I'd say.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's hope for Sununu!

I'm sure Lamontagne will run.

[Niemeyerite]

Who could democrats nominate?? May be Paul Hodes?? He's not a top tier candidate, however...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Tossup

[mondale84]

Tossup/Leans Republican...if only because no top-tier Democrats pop into my head.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

R + 1

[Vosem]

The PPP poll shows that former Senator Sununu is the strongest Republican candidate. Without Lynch, the two strongest Democratic candidates (Hassan's average is 35 and Connolly's is 34, but Connolly ties John Stephen, whereas all Republicans lead Hassan) are former state Senator (and former Majority Leader) Maggie Hassan and Mark Connolly, an ex-bureaucrat who blew apart a Ponzi scheme in May of 2010.

[redcommander]

R+1.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Lean R. Lynch was so popular and powerful politician in New Hampshire, that every potential Democratic candidate is just weak in pure comparison.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Katrina Swett! 

[Tender Branson]

I'm sure Lamontagne will run.

And so it is:

http://www.wmur.com/politics/29209614/detail.html

[Tender Branson]

BTW, how do you Americans pronounce "Ovide Lamontagne" and the last name of a likely Democratic candidate "Margaret Wood Hassan" ?

The first like "O'-wide La Mountain" or "O'-wide La Montain" ?

Hassan, like in "Hessen" or "Huh-Zen" or "Huh-Sun" ?

[Paul Kemp]

BTW, how do you Americans pronounce "Ovide Lamontagne" and the last name of a likely Democratic candidate "Margaret Wood Hassan" ?

The first like "O'-wide La Mountain" or "O'-wide La Montain" ?

Hassan, like in "Hessen" or "Huh-Zen" or "Huh-Sun" ?

O-Veed La-Mon-Tain

[Penelope]

BTW, how do you Americans pronounce "Ovide Lamontagne" and the last name of a likely Democratic candidate "Margaret Wood Hassan" ?

The first like "O'-wide La Mountain" or "O'-wide La Montain" ?

Hassan, like in "Hessen" or "Huh-Zen" or "Huh-Sun" ?

"O-veed La-Mont-ain", and "Has-san".

"Lamontagne" I pronounce the same way I would pronounce "Fontaine". "Hassan", I pronounce sort of like "Assad".

[The Mikado]

BTW, how do you Americans pronounce "Ovide Lamontagne" and the last name of a likely Democratic candidate "Margaret Wood Hassan" ?

The first like "O'-wide La Mountain" or "O'-wide La Montain" ?

Hassan, like in "Hessen" or "Huh-Zen" or "Huh-Sun" ?

The latter name is something like "Hah-Sahn."

[tpfkaw]

BTW, how do you Americans pronounce "Ovide Lamontagne" and the last name of a likely Democratic candidate "Margaret Wood Hassan" ?

The first like "O'-wide La Mountain" or "O'-wide La Montain" ?

Hassan, like in "Hessen" or "Huh-Zen" or "Huh-Sun" ?

He pronounces his name "Ovid La Montain."  The latter I'd pronounce "Huh-sawn"

[nhmagic]

Likely R - I voted for Lynch in the last election and he has been an excellent governor during the time I have lived here.  He has been sensible and understands the realities of austerity having been a businessman prior to being governor.  That kept him from going leftwing loony during his time.  There is absolutely no democratic bench in this state right now.  The senate "five" and the leftover house dems are from the most leftwing areas in the state and would have a hard time winning over the rest of the state.  Annie Kuster is going for a second crack at Bass and Carol Shea Porter is a joke to most of my district. 

The only way dems pull this out is if they find another Lynch from the private sector.  The state is still angry at our AG because he refused to sign on to the Obamacare lawsuit - so hes not a possibility.  Shaheen has already been governor and is happy where she's at in the senate.

Ovide is pretty likeable by the way.  Stephen is not. 

[nhmagic]

Katrina Swett! 

Bad blood from the primary last year...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

On a side note, Lynch has been Governor for almost eight years (four terms). So, retirement is hardly suprising.

[smoltchanov]

Likely R - I voted for Lynch in the last election and he has been an excellent governor during the time I have lived here.  He has been sensible and understands the realities of austerity having been a businessman prior to being governor.  That kept him from going leftwing loony during his time.  There is absolutely no democratic bench in this state right now.  The senate "five" and the leftover house dems are from the most leftwing areas in the state and would have a hard time winning over the rest of the state.  Annie Kuster is going for a second crack at Bass and Carol Shea Porter is a joke to most of my district. 

The only way dems pull this out is if they find another Lynch from the private sector.  The state is still angry at our AG because he refused to sign on to the Obamacare lawsuit - so hes not a possibility.  Shaheen has already been governor and is happy where she's at in the senate.

Ovide is pretty likeable by the way.  Stephen is not. 

Ovide may be too far-right even for somewhat conservative (nort always) New Hampshire. In the past - he was, and i don't see why that can't repeat itself in 2012. IMHO - Republicans would be better with somewhat more moderate (especially - social moderate) candidate)))

[nhmagic]

Likely R - I voted for Lynch in the last election and he has been an excellent governor during the time I have lived here.  He has been sensible and understands the realities of austerity having been a businessman prior to being governor.  That kept him from going leftwing loony during his time.  There is absolutely no democratic bench in this state right now.  The senate "five" and the leftover house dems are from the most leftwing areas in the state and would have a hard time winning over the rest of the state.  Annie Kuster is going for a second crack at Bass and Carol Shea Porter is a joke to most of my district. 

The only way dems pull this out is if they find another Lynch from the private sector.  The state is still angry at our AG because he refused to sign on to the Obamacare lawsuit - so hes not a possibility.  Shaheen has already been governor and is happy where she's at in the senate.

Ovide is pretty likeable by the way.  Stephen is not. 

Ovide may be too far-right even for somewhat conservative (nort always) New Hampshire. In the past - he was, and i don't see why that can't repeat itself in 2012. IMHO - Republicans would be better with somewhat more moderate (especially - social moderate) candidate)))

I dunno.  NH elected a far right house and senate in 2010, a veto proof one at that.  I'm still trying to figure out the whole NH being socially moderate thing - I feel like its not really a penalty here as long as you de-stress it.  Ayotte is a mega social conservative but she didn't make those issues a focal point of her campaign.

[smoltchanov]

I dunno.  NH elected a far right house and senate in 2010, a veto proof one at that.  I'm still trying to figure out the whole NH being socially moderate thing - I feel like its not really a penalty here as long as you de-stress it.  Ayotte is a mega social conservative but she didn't make those issues a focal point of her campaign.

2010 was extremely unusual year - may be even more so in New Hampshire then in many other states: a banner year for ultraconservatives. Very conservative Ayotte almost lost to even more conservative Ovide, Bass almost lost to unelectable very conservative Horn, and legislature now has a record number of "ultras' in decades, if not centuries. In 2012 the pendulum will swing back, the question is - how much? If Obama would retain even half of it's 2008 popularity - i would predict Democratic takeover of legislature. As it is -  i think Republicans will retain legislative control in the state, but with much reduced majority...

[nhmagic]

I dunno.  NH elected a far right house and senate in 2010, a veto proof one at that.  I'm still trying to figure out the whole NH being socially moderate thing - I feel like its not really a penalty here as long as you de-stress it.  Ayotte is a mega social conservative but she didn't make those issues a focal point of her campaign.

2010 was extremely unusual year - may be even more so in New Hampshire then in many other states: a banner year for ultraconservatives. Very conservative Ayotte almost lost to even more conservative Ovide, Bass almost lost to unelectable very conservative Horn, and legislature now has a record number of "ultras' in decades, if not centuries. In 2012 the pendulum will swing back, the question is - how much? If Obama would retain even half of it's 2008 popularity - i would predict Democratic takeover of legislature. As it is -  i think Republicans will retain legislative control in the state, but with much reduced majority...

I think the big question is "how much" will it swing back, like you said.  However, if it swings back only slightly - that has some huge implications for the future of NH politics.  I am less convinced in a massive shift back to dems - some of the oddball laws that have been passed resonate with this state because it is such an oddball state.  It's also one of the most pleasurable states to watch the political process.  The voters have a lot of say here and that keeps both parties in check.