National Tracking Poll Thread

[marvelrobbins]

After having Obama down he has started to recover.

He and Romney tied at 45 %

Obama 47% Santorum 42%

[ill ind]

  And so the Rassmussen patented sin wave tracking poll continues onward.

Ill_Ind

[Ben Romney]

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, Mitt Romney leads President Obama by two percentage points, 45% to 43%. If Rick Santorum, the winner of yesterday's Louisiana Republican Primary, is the GOP nominee, the president leads 47% to 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[marvelrobbins]

RAs has swung again

Obama 46% Romney 43 %
Obama 49% Santorum 41 %

So what exactly has changed In last couple of days to go from Romney by 2 to Obama by 3?

Untill late october expect RAs to go back and forth In national polls between Obama and Romney.

[Rowan]

Gallup will begin their nightly tracking of the Romney vs. Obama race on Wednesday night with their first results being released on Monday. I figure we could use a thread to put the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls daily.

[Lief]

Oh lord, not more Gallup "polling."

[You kip if you want to...]

Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?

[Tender Branson]

Rowan, I've merged the 2 threads (Rasmussen and Gallup) and re-named it " National Tracking Poll Thread", because in the future there will be other tracking polls as well that we can put in here.

But for now, please post the Rasmussen and Gallup stuff in here if you like.

[Tender Branson]

Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?

Yeah, not only in 2008, also in 2010.

Remember when they had about 3 different models to forecast the "generic GOP lead" - one of them even had the GOP winning Congress by about 18 (they actually won by 6).

Gallup is just a crack pollster to me sometimes.

[ajb]

Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?

Yeah, not only in 2008, also in 2010.

Remember when they had about 3 different models to forecast the "generic GOP lead" - one of them even had the GOP winning Congress by about 18 (they actually won by 6).

Gallup is just a crack pollster to me sometimes.

Mind you, then the alternative seems to be Rasmussen, who weights for party ID, which has methodological issues of its own. In the end, I'm glad for a lot of variety in how pollsters do their work.

[King]

I, for one, welcome our Gallup tracking lords.

[AmericanNation]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

FOX News                   4/9 - 4/11            910 RV   44   46   Romney +2
Rasmussen Tracking   4/10 - 4/12        1500 LV   44   48   Romney +4

I thought it would take longer than 2 days for Romney to overtake the president.

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

Two Republican pollsters. Wait until the real ones come out with their numbers.

[AmericanNation]

So you think it will average a PUSH ?? with Romney trending ahead? Still, these polls are only catching part of the last two days momentum.  I wonder how much legs this run will have.  The upside is the state polls will probably start to catch up to the reality that this is now a general election.   

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

I am not saying that Romney isn't leading. But I will wait until a different, non-republican pollsters shows the same numbers. Until then, well, it's Fox and Rasmussen. And Rasmussen numbers don't make sense. If Obama is trailing Romney nationally by 4, he should be trailing Romney by at least 6 in North Carolina, and not by 2.

[AmericanNation]

I know what your thinking, but it is actually likely that other parts of the country would break toward Romney more/faster than NC.  This isn't Bush who would distort 'Dixie'/'Tidewater' toward him more/faster.   

[King]

I know what your thinking, but it is actually likely that other parts of the country would break toward Romney more/faster than NC.  This isn't Bush who would distort 'Dixie'/'Tidewater' toward him more/faster.   

You claims have no evidence, but that's not really important.   These two polls have the following:

• Rasmussen -- uses a likely voter sample of R+5 because he believes it will be a strong Republican turnout year, his approval poll currently has Obama underwater -6 with this same sample
• FOX News -- Obama -9 approval in this sample
• In the news, this week Romney sealed the nomination with a Santorum drop out.  He has the "Big Mo'".

Romney + nomination momentum + Obama 7.5 underwater in approval = a 3 point lead.

I'm sure Obama is completely fine with performing this strong in such a scenario.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Gallup still hasn't released tracking poll numbers, over an hour after they said they'd be available, that I can see. Or, there are numbers in that area on the site, but they appear to be from late March.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Obama up by 8 in new national poll:



Investor's Business Journal/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP
 3/30-4/5/12; 816 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
 TIPP release

National

2012 President
 46% Obama (D), 38% Romney (R) (chart)

[Jayhawker]

Romney leads 47-45, per Gallup. Didn't see it posted on here.

[Tender Branson]

Romney leads 47-45, per Gallup. Didn't see it posted on here.

That's the first time since last September that Romney has led in 3 consecutive polls.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

So I guess Gallup is on the Republican pollster conspiracy against Obama? Of course as soon as PPP shows Obama ahead it will be completely legit, with no mention of the fact that it is a democratic polling firm.

Anyway, fantastic news. I feel like dancing.

[cavalcade]

Nomination bump (Newt/Rick people used to be undecided/Obama, now they are solidly committed to Romney), nomination bounce (indys are like, oh, I hear this Romney guy just got the nomination, I'll say him), or tax season effect (f***ing Obama taking my hard earned money)?

[Jayhawker]

I wonder how many Rick Santorum/Newt Gingrich supporters said when answering on Romney/Obama that they were undecided or even voting for Obama, simply as a ploy to try and make Romney appear weaker in a General Election. It certainly crossed my mind, tbh.

[krazen1211]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.