National Tracking Poll Thread

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Obama up by 8 in new national poll:



Investor's Business Journal/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP
 3/30-4/5/12; 816 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
 TIPP release

Gah! That 38% number isn't good for Romney. What's the track record on this group's polling?

National

2012 President
 46% Obama (D), 38% Romney (R) (chart)

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

So I guess Gallup is on the Republican pollster conspiracy against Obama? Of course as soon as PPP shows Obama ahead it will be completely legit, with no mention of the fact that it is a democratic polling firm.

If PPP revealed their name stood for Phony Politically-Driven Polls, it wouldn't change fact that they had the best track record last 2 cycles and have more credibility than any other pollster.

[Democratic Hawk]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

[ajb]

Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

[Governor Scott]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

[You kip if you want to...]

As always, it's the state polls that matter anyway. [/2000]

[Nagas]

As always, it's the state polls that matter anyway. [/2000]

This thread is useless.

[argentarius]

For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.

[Nagas]

For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.

Uh, nope. While he prevailed by 2.4% in the PV, Bush would have lost Ohio if you moved about 60k votes to the other side. In 1876, Tilden won the PV with over 3%.

In theory you could obtain a majority of the EVs with only around 24% of the PV.

Again, the PV is useless.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

[ajb]

Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

Well, we'll never know if they were right or not, will we? Putting all of the polls together, we're left with a race somewhere between "Romney leads by 2-3 points" and "Obama leads by 10," depending partly on methodologies and assumptions. Seems reasonable enough to me.

[krazen1211]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

We tried that already. It was called the alternative minimum tax and was passed due to a few hundred millionaires. Now it affects thousands of middle class individuals.

Fool me once...

[Democratic Hawk]

Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

This is telling

Obama vote: 76% for Obama; 23% against Romney

Romney vote: 35% for Romney; 63% against Obama

[krazen1211]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

[Governor Scott]

Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

[Governor Scott]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

1%ers have been voting Republican for years.  This is a well-known fact.

[krazen1211]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

1%ers have been voting Republican for years.  This is a well-known fact.

Actually, GOP gains occurred heavily among the top 40% or so.

[Governor Scott]

Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

1%ers have been voting Republican for years.  This is a well-known fact.

Actually, GOP gains occurred heavily among the top 40% or so.

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

[krazen1211]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

[Governor Scott]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

[krazen1211]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

[asexual trans victimologist]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

I'm sure a tax policy that was outrageous would.

Out of curiosity, under what circumstances, if any, would you actually accept a marginal tax increase on the highest bracket or couple of brackets?

[Democratic Hawk]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

Spare me that, given just how much supply-side has added to the US federal debt. That's the real outrage

[Governor Scott]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

There were some issues that voters had with this particular tax reform proposal, but the vast majority of Americans believe that higher income earners can and should pay a little more in taxes.

Sorry.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I agree -- the Ken Schramm video there exactly demonstrates why I-1098 got slaughtered.