National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Advisory:

NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based near where Hurricane Sandy is expected to come ashore. We are planning on providing our usual updates over the coming days, but there may be disruptions due to the storm and its aftermath. Our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering will continue.

[Lief 🗽]

ABC/WaPo

Romney 49% (nc)
Obama 49% (+1)

The Obama surge continues.

[Yank2133]

Two interesting notes: Obama's approval rating (51-47) is his highest since July, and Romney's lead on the economy has shrunk from 51-44 two days ago to 49-47 today.

[Ty440]

ABC/WaPo

Romney 49% (nc)
Obama 49% (+1)

The Obama surge continues.

The Obama surge is like a tidal wave surging through  the country.

[Eraserhead]

Will ABC/WP keep polling after today though? They probably shouldn't.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama also leads in the battlegrounds (minus North Carolina for some reason) 49-48 in the ABC/WP poll.

[Likely Voter]

Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1

[Minnesota Mike]

PPP tweeted they will not be releasing their tracking poll tonight.

[Likely Voter]

Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137

Ah... ha?

[J. J.]

Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137

Ah... ha?

No other poll that I am aware of shows a 10 point gap with RV.  Am I correct in that.  Gallup doesn't.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

None of the trackers, but WaPo was close to that if I remember correctly... There was one... I don't remember now who by, but about 6 weeks ago that had a 10% LV/RV gap

[Likely Voter]

Today's Ipsos poll is unusual. But there is a clear LV/RV thing going on. Nate Cohn wrote about it last week

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108963/daily-breakdown-obama-struggling-likely-voters

[King]

BREAKING: GALLUP DAILY TRACKING SUSPENDED DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

It looks like it's up to Rasmussen and RAND to ride us through this storm.

Isn't RAND's gimmick that they use the same sample of people?  They have to stay in touch no matter what.

[Ty440]

Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1

Can anyone deny that Obama is surging in the polls?

[J. J.]

Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1

Can anyone deny that Obama is surging in the polls?

You are joking, right. 

[Dumbo]

NPR national Romney +1

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49

Obama:  47

[Umengus]

NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. We are operating on battery power and have limited access to the Internet. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only data from the Presidential Tracking Poll. We hope to resume a more complete schedule tomorrow.

and

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now think President Obama will win. That’s the first time it’s fallen below 50% all year. Forty-one percent (41%) believe Romney will win.

[Eraserhead]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

[Umengus]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

[Umengus]

PPP for daily kos (10/25-10/28):

O: 49
R: 49

Party id: D 39 R 37 I 24

Romney leads Indies by 6.

[Torie]

Haha, Gallup's crappy poll is saved by the bell. Good decision though.

Maybe Dick Morris can help you through some of your Gallup grumpiness Eraserhead.  It's almost morning in America!

[Lief 🗽]

Most polls do not weigh based on Party ID. They weigh on things like race, age, etc. Things that are not fluid and do not wildly fluctuate from week to week, month to month.

Gallup, for the third year in a row, will prove to be a joke once again this year.

[Torie]

Most polls do not weigh based on Party ID. They weigh on things like race, age, etc. Things that are not fluid and do not wildly fluctuate from week to week, month to month.

Gallup, for the third year in a row, will prove to be a joke once again this year.

You caught that eh?  Very good. However, the thing is, is that nobody really knows the demographic shape of who will vote either. That too is a guesstimate. So the grand thing is, is that nobody really knows, and that almost anything could happen. Don't you just love the suspense?