National Tracking Poll Thread

[Joe Biden 2020]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

[Torie]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

[Eraserhead]

What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Bushie is just having a crisis of Moderate Heroism.

[Likely Voter]

Tuesday  Summary  

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +5  (R+1)   [O+3]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (-)   [-]  
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+1]  
Zogby:   Romney +1 (O+1) [new]
ABC:       Romney +1 (R+1)   [-]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)   [O+2]


TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)

Average: Obama 0.3  (R+0.2) [O+1.2]

(Average w/ last TIPP, PPP and Gallup polls: Romney 0.2)

[Joe Biden 2020]

What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Bushie is just having a crisis of Moderate Heroism.

People may not personally think Obama's a lock, but it sure sounds that way from the posts.  I agree that he's probably the favorite, but he's far from a lock.

[Silent Hunter]

What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Close to lock, but by no means a certainty. I'd say this race is Lean Obama.

[King]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

[Umengus]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

the same party id can give different results.

[Franzl]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Just go back to supporting Romney. It'll make you feel better and it'll improve your "independent minded" credentials.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Just go back to supporting Romney. It'll make you feel better and it'll improve your "independent minded" credentials.

While I won't be upset if Romney wins, I just can't vote for him.  He has said some things that make me a little leary.  I think he would make a good president, and I like him as a person (said very few ever), but I think President Obama needs time to continue what he's started.  Everybody knew it would take more than 4 years to clean up the mess that Bush left.  He's done a pretty good job so far with what he's been given, but he needs more time.

[Cliffy]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

He has an ongoing monthly survey that surveys the breakdowns of the electorate by party id.  He then weights his polls by party ID, however he's showing R+1 or better in the survey yet he's still weighting to D+3.

Why? I don't know, he seems to be playing it pretty safe.  Gallup is also showing R+2 but they seem to be closer to their weighting. 

[Likely Voter]

Rasmussen moved weighting from D+3 to D+1 in mid October. May have moved it back but havent seen that cited

[Lief 🗽]

Reuters is still at Obama 47, Romney 46 today.

[DL]

Just saw a tweet that PSRAI (Princeton Survey Research Associates International) just put out a national poll with Obama leading 50 to 45% nationally...a five point spread would actually be quite consistent with the statemwide polls we see

PollingReport.com ‏@pollreport

White House 2012: Obama-Biden 50% / Romney-Ryan 45% (National Journal/PSRAI, LV, 10/25-28) http://bit.ly/onIYJO

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just saw a tweet that PSRAI (Princeton Survey Research Associates International) just put out a national poll with Obama leading 50 to 45% nationally...a five point spread would actually be quite consistent with the statemwide polls we see

PollingReport.com ‏@pollreport

White House 2012: Obama-Biden 50% / Romney-Ryan 45% (National Journal/PSRAI, LV, 10/25-28) http://bit.ly/onIYJO

I saw it too, and someone on Daily Kos says they use a stiff LV screen. If there's high turnout, this is gonna be a blowout.

[Sbane]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

[Torie]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

Oh, I think whomever is elected is going to have an absolutely miserable time, as the just massive disconnect between campaign rhetoric and reality (of which both campaigns are totally and absolutely guilty) slowly percolates into the minds of the masses. They are in for a rude shock whomever is elected - and they won't be happy. They will feel like they were lied to actually.

[Lief 🗽]

Well most of Romney's supporters are voting for him because they hope he's lying, so I doubt they'd be very disappointed.

[Sbane]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

Oh, I think whomever is elected is going to have an absolutely miserable time, as the just massive disconnect between campaign rhetoric and reality (of which both campaigns are totally and absolutely guilty) slowly percolates into the minds of the masses. They are in for a rude shock whomever is elected - and they won't be happy. They will feel like they were lied to actually.

They're all crooks! Rabble, Rabble, Rabble!

[Joe Biden 2020]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

[Lief 🗽]

ABC/WaPo

Obama 49% (+1)
Romney 49% (nc)

Obama also gets very high marks on the Sandy response. 79% of voters rate his response good or excellent.

[Likely Voter]

WednesdaySummary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +4  (R+1) [-]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (-)   [O+2]  
UPI:       TIED      (R+1) [R+2]  
ABC:       TIED      (O+1) [O+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)   [O+2]
Zogby:     Romney +3 (R+2) [new]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)  

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [-]

*does not include TIPP, PPP or Gallup

[Skill and Chance]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...

[Joe Biden 2020]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...

Can't argue with that.