National Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308298 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #1825 on: November 03, 2012, 05:09:02 AM »

PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44

and yet it's move further to D+7 and he's up 1? and independents?  pretty screwy.

because democrats at only 81 % (sandy technical effect ?)... Strange poll.
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Umengus
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« Reply #1826 on: November 03, 2012, 01:20:17 PM »

rand poll

Obama 48 (-1)
Romney: 46 (+1)
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Umengus
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« Reply #1827 on: November 03, 2012, 01:24:00 PM »

Ipsos-reuters

Obama: 47 (+1)
Romney: 46 (=)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1828 on: November 03, 2012, 01:25:21 PM »

rand poll

Obama 48 (-1)
Romney: 46 (+1)

It's 49-46.
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Umengus
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« Reply #1829 on: November 03, 2012, 01:27:07 PM »


O 48,86
R 46,21

To be correct
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1830 on: November 03, 2012, 01:27:43 PM »

Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.
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Umengus
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« Reply #1831 on: November 03, 2012, 02:12:10 PM »

Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.

not rand
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1832 on: November 03, 2012, 02:16:25 PM »


Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #1833 on: November 03, 2012, 02:49:11 PM »


Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 
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King
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« Reply #1834 on: November 03, 2012, 03:02:22 PM »


Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 

If only there were portable phones. Sad
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1835 on: November 03, 2012, 03:11:34 PM »


Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 

And where, exactly, would NYC residents charge them?  The NYC area alone was probably responsible for 1-2% of Obama's national margin in 2008.  Romney should be soaring in national polls right now with so much of that area tragically off the grid.  I thought for sure that the polls still in the field this week would go Romney +3-5 nationally.  That has not happened.  They have moved marginally to Obama, suggesting a swing to him in the rest of the country that more than offsets the lack of NYC respondents.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1836 on: November 03, 2012, 05:38:36 PM »

Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.

Not that much of now, I'd say.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #1837 on: November 03, 2012, 05:46:49 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2012, 05:51:31 PM by Likely Voter »

Adding UPI to summary

Saturday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (R+1)       [R+3]
PPP:            Obama +1   (-)             [O+1]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (O+1)        [R+1]  
UPI:             Obama +1   (O+1)        [R+1]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)             [O+4]


Average: Obama +1.2 (O+0.2) [-]

Zogby:    (no poll)
ABC:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1838 on: November 03, 2012, 05:49:16 PM »

PPP tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

Yeah....things are looking good for Team Blue.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1839 on: November 03, 2012, 05:56:08 PM »

PPP tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

Yeah....things are looking good for Team Blue.

Anything controversial in the crosstabs?  It could be NYC coming back on line after a swing in the rest of the country.
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Ty440
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« Reply #1840 on: November 03, 2012, 06:06:21 PM »

PPP tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

Yeah....things are looking good for Team Blue.

Glorious news! Obama is surging nationally!
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1841 on: November 03, 2012, 11:18:33 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2012, 11:22:04 PM by Yank2133 »

WAPO

Obama-48
Romney-48

And they are both tied with Independents.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1842 on: November 04, 2012, 02:47:56 AM »

WAPO

Obama-48
Romney-48

And they are both tied with Independents.

If Obama ties Romney with independents on election day, he'll certainly win the PV.
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Umengus
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« Reply #1843 on: November 04, 2012, 09:57:17 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 10:05:50 AM by Umengus »

Battleground-politico:

Obama: 48 (-1)
Romney: 48

Party id: D +3 ("true independents": 14 %)

"Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party."

"Democrats continue to have an advantage on early voting, but Republicans closed the gap somewhat over the past week.

A full 27 percent of those surveyed said they’ve already cast their ballot. Of them, Obama leads 50 to 48 percent."

"A final poll is being conducted this weekend and Monday"

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Umengus
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« Reply #1844 on: November 04, 2012, 10:11:31 AM »

Ras

Obama: 49 (+1)
ROmney: 49 (+1)

"These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters. "

So party id: D+2
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Umengus
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« Reply #1845 on: November 04, 2012, 10:22:10 AM »

ipsos-reuters

Obama: 47 (=)
Romney: 46 % (=)

just for fun:

Ohio: O 46 R 45
FL: O 47 R 47
VA: O 48 R 45
CO: O 45 R 47
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Umengus
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« Reply #1846 on: November 04, 2012, 11:25:09 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 12:50:59 PM by Umengus »

rand poll

Obama 49 (+0,4)
Romney: 46 (-0,4)

Zogby

Obama: 47 (-1)
Romney: 47 (+1)
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1847 on: November 04, 2012, 12:51:02 PM »

Reuters

Obama-48
Romney-47
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #1848 on: November 04, 2012, 12:51:05 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 05:42:36 PM by Likely Voter »

There seems to be more coalescing between the polls. The difference between the best Obama and Best Romney polls was up to 11 points last Sunday. Tomorrow Gallup returns to the fold. Their last poll was Romney so maybe they will return us to more divergence. My bet is they will be closer to a tie +/-2.

Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+2)             [new]
ABC:            TIED            (O+1)             [O+2]

Average: Obama +1.2 (-) [O +0.5]


UPI:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)


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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1849 on: November 04, 2012, 12:52:31 PM »

Looks like undecideds have broken towards Obama in the last week.
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