National Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308330 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #250 on: August 18, 2012, 11:03:01 PM »

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.


What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?
Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #251 on: August 19, 2012, 08:42:06 AM »

Romney's numbers @ Rasmussen drop to the lowest point since March:

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Kalwejt
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« Reply #252 on: August 19, 2012, 08:54:03 AM »

National polling doesn't matter. Statewide polling does.

I'm not denying Romney is enjoying a bump.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #253 on: August 19, 2012, 12:09:31 PM »

Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?

If you would read the thread you're posting in, you'd see that that's not at all what I'm saying.

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #254 on: August 19, 2012, 12:31:51 PM »

My point was a brief one point bump in Rasmussen cant really be called a bounce of any sort. Taken together the two tracking polls average out to a negative bounce. But I dont believe that either. I just dont think there is enough data yet.

As for state poll data, that is also a mixed bag as noted by Nate Silver with some showing movement towards Romney and others the opposite. Including some of the purple polls showing up and others down.

As of now there simply isn't enough data to say if there is a real Ryan bump. The one exception is probably WI, which now appears to be more competitive. But in aggregate, what data there is shows something less than 1% for Ryan overall. Last week had very little polling released. I actually expect that there should be more polls in the next week and they will show something of a 1-2% bump. I just prefer to see more data before making a determination.

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #255 on: August 20, 2012, 12:08:37 PM »

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #256 on: August 20, 2012, 01:01:11 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2012, 06:38:43 PM by MorningInAmerica »

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #257 on: August 21, 2012, 12:07:12 PM »

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.

Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    44  (+1)
Romney    45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

8th day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47-45%.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #258 on: August 21, 2012, 12:10:00 PM »

The Gallup national tracking is starting to get weird. It has never held stable like this for this long, while over the same one week period Obama's Gallup approval has ranged from even to -6.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #259 on: August 22, 2012, 10:14:08 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2012, 12:13:40 PM by MorningInAmerica »

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.
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Umengus
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« Reply #260 on: August 22, 2012, 12:30:45 PM »

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #261 on: August 22, 2012, 12:33:46 PM »

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

That's true. Romney hit 47% 3 days after the Ryan pick and hasn't budged since.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #262 on: August 22, 2012, 03:26:28 PM »

Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #263 on: August 22, 2012, 08:59:52 PM »

Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.

Especially considering that before the Ryan pick, Obama held the lead on Gallup for 2 months with few exceptions.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #264 on: August 23, 2012, 12:24:14 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2012, 01:46:58 PM by Legitimate Voter »

Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #265 on: August 23, 2012, 02:05:40 PM »

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

Permanent? lol. Hasn't it been less than two weeks since he picked him? And we're already calling things "permanent"?
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #266 on: August 23, 2012, 04:27:38 PM »


The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip

Was thinking the same thing when I saw the numbers today.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #267 on: August 24, 2012, 12:18:59 PM »

Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46 (+1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #268 on: August 25, 2012, 01:45:40 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2012, 01:53:46 PM by Legitimate Voter »

Saturday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1  
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46



1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2   
Obama    46
Romney    44   

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #269 on: August 26, 2012, 12:37:27 PM »

Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #270 on: August 26, 2012, 12:45:01 PM »

Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
There's something funky going on with Gallup. Rasmussen has had his approval between 47-50 for a while now. But Gallup seems to have him falling a lot lately. And he hasn't been in the lead in over two weeks.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #271 on: August 27, 2012, 12:02:43 PM »

Monday:

Rasmussen: Obama +3
Obama     47
Romney     44 (-1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47 (+1)

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #272 on: August 27, 2012, 06:49:23 PM »

I see Scott's doing some prep work for Romney's big convention bounce! Tongue
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« Reply #273 on: August 28, 2012, 08:55:42 AM »

Is Gallup doing their registered, likely and "extended" thing after the conventions again?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #274 on: August 28, 2012, 12:20:58 PM »

Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47

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