National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.

What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?

Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?

[Tender Branson]

Romney's numbers @ Rasmussen drop to the lowest point since March:

Sunday, August 19, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 43%.

This is the lowest level of support for Romney since March. So far, in the month of August, support for both Romney and Obama has stayed in a very narrow range between 43% and 47%.

Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 84% of Democrats. The president has a 10-point edge among unaffiliated voters.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

National polling doesn't matter. Statewide polling does.

I'm not denying Romney is enjoying a bump.

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?

If you would read the thread you're posting in, you'd see that that's not at all what I'm saying.

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html

[Likely Voter]

My point was a brief one point bump in Rasmussen cant really be called a bounce of any sort. Taken together the two tracking polls average out to a negative bounce. But I dont believe that either. I just dont think there is enough data yet.

As for state poll data, that is also a mixed bag as noted by Nate Silver with some showing movement towards Romney and others the opposite. Including some of the purple polls showing up and others down.

As of now there simply isn't enough data to say if there is a real Ryan bump. The one exception is probably WI, which now appears to be more competitive. But in aggregate, what data there is shows something less than 1% for Ryan overall. Last week had very little polling released. I actually expect that there should be more polls in the next week and they will show something of a 1-2% bump. I just prefer to see more data before making a determination.

[Likely Voter]

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

[MorningInAmerica]

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.

[MorningInAmerica]

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.

Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    44  (+1)
Romney    45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

8th day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47-45%.

[Likely Voter]

The Gallup national tracking is starting to get weird. It has never held stable like this for this long, while over the same one week period Obama's Gallup approval has ranged from even to -6.

[MorningInAmerica]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

[Umengus]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

[MorningInAmerica]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

That's true. Romney hit 47% 3 days after the Ryan pick and hasn't budged since.

[Likely Voter]

Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.

[MorningInAmerica]

Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.

Especially considering that before the Ryan pick, Obama held the lead on Gallup for 2 months with few exceptions.

[Likely Voter]

Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

Permanent? lol. Hasn't it been less than two weeks since he picked him? And we're already calling things "permanent"?

[MorningInAmerica]

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip

Was thinking the same thing when I saw the numbers today.

[Likely Voter]

Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46 (+1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46

[Likely Voter]

Saturday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1  
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46



1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2   
Obama    46
Romney    44   

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

[Likely Voter]

Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46

[Clinton1996]

Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46

There's something funky going on with Gallup. Rasmussen has had his approval between 47-50 for a while now. But Gallup seems to have him falling a lot lately. And he hasn't been in the lead in over two weeks.

[Likely Voter]

Monday:

Rasmussen: Obama +3
Obama     47
Romney     44 (-1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47 (+1)

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I see Scott's doing some prep work for Romney's big convention bounce!

[You kip if you want to...]

Is Gallup doing their registered, likely and "extended" thing after the conventions again?

[Likely Voter]

Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47