National Tracking Poll Thread

[mondale84]

ARG  Sep 4-6

Obama     46%
Romney    49%

Likely Voters

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Romney has truly closed the gap since Mid-August. Are we looking at Bush vs. Gore 2000 all over again?

ARG is a troll/joke pollster...

[J. J.]

ARG  Sep 4-6

Obama     46%
Romney    49%

Likely Voters

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Romney has truly closed the gap since Mid-August. Are we looking at Bush vs. Gore 2000 all over again?

ARG is a troll/joke pollster...

Not a great pollster, but not a Republican one.

[Lief]

Reuters/Ipsos for today (link)

Obama: 46 (+2)
Romney 44 (-1)

Oh, MIA edited his post with these numbers on the last page, nevermind.

So that's +2, +2 and +3 in the trackers so far. Not bad at all.

[Devils30]

Rasmussen's R+5 national sample with a one point Romney lead really doesnt show promising signs for the GOP. That poll is designed for Romney to always be in the lead.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen's R+5 national sample with a one point Romney lead really doesnt show promising signs for the GOP. That poll is designed for Romney to always be in the lead.

It probly is less than 5 points, though there is a "house effect" that skews it GOP. 

[Devils30]

No, it's that they weight every national poll by party ID. The September numbers were absurd as the R's had like a 4-5% advantage (check it out).

[Lief]

As Nate Silver points out, the really bad news for Romney from that Gallup tracker is that most of it 5 out of 7 of the days that make it up are from interviews before the DNC even began, when his bounce theoretically should have been at its height.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

RV=FAIL. Hopefully the Obama bounce is real though.

[J. J.]

No, it's that they weight every national poll by party ID. The September numbers were absurd as the R's had like a 4-5% advantage (check it out).

It was no where near a 4-5 point advantage, and in 2008, they were closer than Gallup.

[Senator Sbane]

No, it's that they weight every national poll by party ID. The September numbers were absurd as the R's had like a 4-5% advantage (check it out).

It was no where near a 4-5 point advantage, and in 2008, they were closer than Gallup.

Their party ID is R+4.

[Tender Branson]

Rassy today:

46% Obama (+1)
44% Romney (-2)

Of course, only 1/3 of the interviews were taken after the Obama speech and 2/3 after Clinton.

Also from Rassy's release:

The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters. Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Nate Silver says:

Big Bounce Coming for Obama?

Nate Silver says tracking polls are pointing toward "a decent-size convention bounce" for President Obama and says it's "unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone."

"What's a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup's reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention. In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/08/big_bounce_coming_for_obama.html

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Obama-49
Romney-45

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Looking like Obama might hit 50.

[Lief]

A sample that's only 1 out of 7 from after the DNC completely ended and Obama's already up 4%. Nice.

[Tender Branson]

Looking like Obama might hit 50.

Easily. Maybe already tomorrow, if not, then Monday or Tuesday. Because there's quite a lag in Gallup's 7-day tracker. Only 2 out of 7 days (THU/FRI) so far have been after Clinton spoke. Clinton of course spoke on WED, but the interviews typically end at 9pm and he spoke after that.

[afleitch]

A sample that's only 1 out of 7 from after the DNC completely ended and Obama's already up 4%. Nice.

Dr Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium argued after the DNC that Romney in all probability received a negative bounce and that much of his uptick was the end of a Ryan bounce. If as the tracking polls indicate that Obama started to receive a bounce before the DNC really got going then it suggests that the post convention weekend/Monday morning hangover drove Obama upwards and helps confirm his theory.

[MorningInAmerica]

Looking like Obama might hit 50.

Easily. Maybe already tomorrow, if not, then Monday or Tuesday. Because there's quite a lag in Gallup's 7-day tracker. Only 2 out of 7 days (THU/FRI) so far have been after Clinton spoke. Clinton of course spoke on WED, but the interviews typically end at 9pm and he spoke after that.

True, but you also have to remember with each passing day, we're adding post-DNC days into the 7-day rolling average. Those days will likely feature less favorable coverage than the President received during the convention (jobs numbers, daily back and forth between candidates, etc.). I expect Gallup to "max out" the convention bounce by Sunday. After that, we'll either see a moderate, though stable Obama lead, or a return to parity, like it was before the DNC.

[Tender Branson]

Assuming that Obama led by about 1% in the first 5 days (which is what Gallup showed) and now he's 4% ahead with 2 more nights in, this would yield a lead of about 8% in the previous 2 nights alone.

1+1+1+1+1+8+8 = 21/7 = 3% lead

But actually, he's ahead by 4 today, which means that either he led by more than 1% in the first 5 nights or he led by about 10% in the past 2 days.

[Devils30]

PPP tweeted that this weekends polls looking like 2008. Obama is getting a nice bounce despite what FOX News wants to say.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Folks, it's gonna be a blowout.

It's gonna be an absolute, complete blowout.

[Tender Branson]

This election looks so ridiculously 2004-like polling-technically, it's almost unbelievable:



Kerry got a VP bounce from Edwards, like Romney with Ryan.

Kerry almost got no convention bounce, like Romney.

Bush got a huge convention bounce from which Kerry never really fully recovered from.

Obama is currently on the way to build a big bounce as well ... but ... will Romney recover and win ?

[ShadowOfTheWave]

I think Bush's lead continued to grow after the convention but Bush almost ruined it all with that first debate. I don't think Obama is likely to do the same.

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

The Republicans destroyed Kerry in September and October with the swift-boat ads. He never recovered from that. I don't see that happining this time.

[Tender Branson]

I think the Obama campaign should just air that Romney-singing-ad once again in the final week in all swing states for 50 Million $ and he could have the election in his pocket.