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| | | |-+  National Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 78585 times)
Likely Voter
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« Reply #825 on: October 04, 2012, 02:50:19 pm »
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Past exit polling shows that only 22%-25% haven't made up their minds by the end of September. This year I bet the number could be as low as 20%. So for the other 80%, watching lat night is like watching sports. You root for your team, but you arent going to become a fan of the opponent just because your team lost.

That being said, I still suspect that within the 20% of persadables, Romney has probably changed some minds and that will probably show up as a bump in the polls. Losing a debate has a ripple effect in social media, among friends and family and via the media. There is a week or so of Obama as a loser and that has to hurt.
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Mynheer Peeperkorn
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« Reply #826 on: October 04, 2012, 02:52:15 pm »
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What a joke:

Quote
The poll found that Obama's seven-point advantage over Romney had narrowed to a five-point lead, 48 percent to 43 percent, but a truly accurate reading on the debate's impact will not be possible for several days, he said.

That is because the poll drew on a smaller pool of voters, taken over a shorter period of time, than the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll that measures the prospects of each candidate.

The online poll surveyed 536 registered voters on Wednesday and Thursday after the debate. It has a credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points.



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Reds4
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« Reply #827 on: October 04, 2012, 03:01:10 pm »
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Wow, that "poll" is a joke.. I'll wait for some real numbers.
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J. J.
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« Reply #828 on: October 04, 2012, 03:06:08 pm »
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It's not a joke, but unless they polled everything from 11:00 PM yesterday to 11:30 AM today, it won't get any post poll numbers.
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J. J.

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« Reply #829 on: October 04, 2012, 03:08:49 pm »
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Also unchanged on Gallup, with Obama 49, Romney 44.

We probably won't the full debate effects, if any, until Monday.
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J. J.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #830 on: October 04, 2012, 03:10:29 pm »
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In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.
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sobo
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« Reply #831 on: October 04, 2012, 03:14:52 pm »
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Quote
The online poll surveyed 536 registered voters on Wednesday and Thursday after the debate. It has a credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points.

They say that the interviews were conducted after the debate though I'm not sure how they could have done many Wednesday interviews if they were waiting until after the debate to do them. Still, there's no reason to publish this smaller sample poll rather than their tracking poll if they're including old interviews.
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« Reply #832 on: October 04, 2012, 03:21:55 pm »
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Interesting if true.
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« Reply #833 on: October 04, 2012, 03:26:19 pm »
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In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.

Hardly. I expect the tracing polls released today will have little if any post-debate sampling, and none of what little there might be will be from the Eastern or Central Time Zones.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #834 on: October 04, 2012, 03:28:20 pm »
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So the first data point to come in is a 2 point Romney bump with Obama retaining a lead (likely narrower among LV).  That lines up almost exactly with Bush 2004 and Nate Silver's regression.  If it happened across the board, it would also bring the race back in line with the economic models currently showing Obama by <1%.     
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J. J.
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« Reply #835 on: October 04, 2012, 03:28:46 pm »
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In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.

In other words, we don't any post debate numbers.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Reds4
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« Reply #836 on: October 04, 2012, 03:31:00 pm »
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Just read through the topline results on their page.. they compared pre-debate poll to post-debate... likely voters went from Obama +9 pre-debate to Obama +5 post-debate.. for what it's worth.. only time will tell.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #837 on: October 04, 2012, 03:34:06 pm »
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only 538 people


This is a perfectly adequate sample size, if the people polled are members of the Electoral College.
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sobo
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« Reply #838 on: October 04, 2012, 03:35:54 pm »
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Here are the topline results.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12047
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ajb
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« Reply #839 on: October 04, 2012, 03:46:15 pm »
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Just read through the topline results on their page.. they compared pre-debate poll to post-debate... likely voters went from Obama +9 pre-debate to Obama +5 post-debate.. for what it's worth.. only time will tell.
If those numbers are borne out by other polls (and it's too early to know if they will be) that would be both a relatively large shift for a debate to cause, and also not nearly enough on its own to change the election result.
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Umengus
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« Reply #840 on: October 04, 2012, 04:18:38 pm »
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the bounce is +4 with a pollster overestimating democrats by great mesure.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #841 on: October 04, 2012, 05:12:55 pm »
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The one bright side of last night is, that if turns out Romney is still losing to Obama, then we can be pretty sure this election is basically over.

Yep. People are overreacting way too much.

the bounce is +4 with a pollster overestimating democrats by great mesure.

Oh stop complaining about the Poll ID.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 05:14:35 pm by LiberalJunkie99 »Logged
Antonio V
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« Reply #842 on: October 04, 2012, 08:20:39 pm »
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only 538 people


This is a perfectly adequate sample size, if the people polled are members of the Electoral College.

Well, that would give Obama 258 electors, Romney 231, and 49 electors who wouldn't vote or vote for someone else. Which means the election is thrown to the House where Republicans have a majority.

Bad news for Obama. Cry
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.
Umengus
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« Reply #843 on: October 04, 2012, 11:08:50 pm »
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The one bright side of last night is, that if turns out Romney is still losing to Obama, then we can be pretty sure this election is basically over.

Yep. People are overreacting way too much.

the bounce is +4 with a pollster overestimating democrats by great mesure.

Oh stop complaining about the Poll ID.

certainly not...

Facts are stubborn things.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
ajb
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« Reply #844 on: October 05, 2012, 06:33:33 am »
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Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98




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afleitch
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« Reply #845 on: October 05, 2012, 06:55:20 am »
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Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98


Curious.
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The Kingfish
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« Reply #846 on: October 05, 2012, 07:01:36 am »
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Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98






If those numbers are accurate, then (barring a major Obama gaffe or scandal) Romney is almost certainly done.
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J. J.
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« Reply #847 on: October 05, 2012, 10:08:58 am »
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Rasmussen:  49/47 Obama, unchanged.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #848 on: October 05, 2012, 11:23:15 am »
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Obama also leads 50 (-1) to 45 (nc) in the battlegrounds according to Scott.

lol mitt sucks
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« Reply #849 on: October 05, 2012, 11:34:58 am »
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Obama also leads 50 (-1) to 45 (nc) in the battlegrounds according to Scott.

lol mitt sucks

I wouldn't, he's released two state polls that are closer.  Obama could be surging in PA or MI, and falling apart every place else. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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