National Tracking Poll Thread

[Reds4]

Must have been one heck of a Romney sample that just dropped off this tracker.

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98

[afleitch]

Gallup

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45

[Eraserhead]

Obama needs to drink a Red Bull and get a little more serious about preparation before the next debate and he should be alright.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Obama needs to drink a Red Bull and get a little more serious about preparation before the next debate and he should be alright.

[Likely Voter]

Must have been one heck of a Romney sample that just dropped off this tracker.

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98

Well the unique thing about this poll is that it is the same exact sample every day, so that doesn't explain the fluctuation.

That being said if you were rounding up RAND like other polls then it has been very consistent for the last couple of weeks with Obama holding at 50 (except for yesterday at 49) and Romney at 43/44 (again except for yesterday at 45).

[sobo]

Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

[minionofmidas]

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So at what point do people actually reply? How close to 500 people actually reply every day, what percentage actually replies on polling day? And is it reweighted for evening things out?
People have until 1am Pacific Time day after to vote, so the October 3rd bump could be from the debate. Also, 7 days and 14 days before October 4th were, in fact, relatively bad days for Obama, so if it's actually more or less the same 500 people rolling a new reply in every thursday, this could be but a handful of people snapping back to their senses after reporting oddly mittenish for the past two weeks.

[Beet]

This is the kind of passion the people want to see from Obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz8x60JRemc&feature=relmfu

[J. J.]

Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

I'm not crazy about this methodology.  Their numbers seems to show a sizable shift that no one else is.

[Umengus]

"These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about one-third of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. The single night of polling conducted after the debate did show some improvement for Romney, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue or if it was merely statistical noise. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews. "

Scott Rasmussen

"some improvement"...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98

If those numbers are accurate, then (barring a major Obama gaffe or scandal) Romney is almost certainly done.

RAND's methodology doesn't capture voter intensity well, and it's a seven day rolling average.  We'll need a few more days to see what RAND is showing.

[Umengus]

Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

"The online tracking poll conducted between Monday and Friday showed 46 percent of likely voters backed Obama, versus 44 percent for Romney."

so it's clear and Romney will take probably the lead in next days. But pew is a bad pollster so...

[King]

Keep in mind folks that a daily shift is not just the addition of a new day but dropping of an old one.  If post debate night was Romney +2 but so was the sample 4 days ago, then they cancel each other out.

[Umengus]

Keep in mind folks that a daily shift is not just the addition of a new day but dropping of an old one.  If post debate night was Romney +2 but so was the sample 4 days ago, then they cancel each other out.

correct but I don't think that the post debate night was R +2.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

[Ty440]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

Romney gets his bounce. How long will it last and how deep and wide is it?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

Romney gets his bounce. How long will it last and how deep and wide is it?

Well, we don't have a full sample showing the bounce as of yet.  One day of the sample is from Wednesday prior to the debate.

[cavalcade]

Heck of a Romney sample.  Which implies that Friday was a better Romney day than Thursday, when Rasmussen did those very good-for-Romney OH/VA/FL polls.

If he hits 50 in Rasmussen tomorrow, that will be his first ever 50% in their tracker or any other national poll right?

I do think some of this is a bounce, and particularly that Obama can regain some ground by being competent in the remaining debates.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's Rasmussen - not some credible pollster or something.

[Eraserhead]

It's going to be a very short lived bounce if Obama's approval is still hanging at 50%, I suspect...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I still don't get where people think there'll be any bounce for Romney, considering his miserable performance in that debate.

You don't gain votes by running against Big Bird.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

[J. J.]

I still don't get where people think there'll be any bounce for Romney, considering his miserable performance in that debate.

You don't gain votes by running against Big Bird.

Because we look at actual polls, the ones that show him with the highest numbers since they started polling.  

It will move his numbers, but it might be ephemeral.

[Umengus]

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

denial