National Tracking Poll Thread

[Lief 🗽]

If Obama's approval is still at 50%, then I think this Romney surge may indeed be ephemeral.

[Earthling]

If Obama's approval is still at 50%, then I think this Romney surge may indeed be ephemeral.

Agreed.

If Obama's approval ratings are on or around 50% on election day it's hard to see him losing this election.

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)

[Eraserhead]

Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)

The bounce may already be receding, that was quick...

[J. J.]

Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)

The bounce may already be receding, that was quick...

The was a possibly heavy Obama sample in the approval poll.

Also remember, the sample is 4/7 pre debate.

[Reds4]

Gallup did also show Obama's approval dropping to 48 Approve (-2) and 46 (+1) Disapprove. So it's hard to say whether the bounce is receding yet.. only time will tell I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup should start a 3-day likely voter model soon, instead of their 7-day RV tracker and adult approval tracker.

It's only 4 weeks until the election ...

[J. J.]

Gallup should start a 3-day likely voter model soon, instead of their 7-day RV tracker and adult approval tracker.

It's only 4 weeks until the election ...

I wholeheartedly agree.

[sobo]

Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 3-7
Obama:   47 (nc)
Romney: 45 (nc)

I think that this survey is now entirely post-debate. Based on past Reuters/Ipsos releases, they seem to have waited until after the debate to conduct all of their Oct. 3 interviews, but I can't tell for sure because they haven't released the internals yet.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 3-7
Obama:   47 (nc)
Romney: 45 (nc)

I think that this survey is now entirely post-debate. Based on past Reuters/Ipsos releases, they seem to have waited until after the debate to conduct all of their Oct. 3 interviews, but I can't tell for sure because they haven't released the internals yet.

Looks like Mitt's bounce has bounced.

[後援会]

Trailing by 2 is still a serious improvement, I would think.

[Eraserhead]

DEFENSE! DEFENSE!

[Yank2133]

Not surprised.

[後援会]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

[Skill and Chance]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

[後援会]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

[Oakvale]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama - of course any evidence that Romney's bounce is just that as opposed to significant movement is good news.

[後援会]

I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama

Not necessarily. There have certainly been people here and elsewhere claiming the opposite.

[Likely Voter]

RAND:
Obama: 48.95 (-.23)
Romney: 45.10 (+.35)

Romney has got about a 2 point bounce since pre-debate (he's up 1, Obama down 1)

RE: Reuters
Before debate it was Obama 46/Romney 41. So there he has a 3 point bounce. (He's up 4, Obama down 1)

[Oakvale]

I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama

Not necessarily. There have certainly been people here and elsewhere claiming the opposite.

Eh, well there's a few Dems here and there claiming otherwise, but they're not to be taken seriously - I'm not sure how someone could reasonably argue that the debate was anything other than good for Romney - although I suppose the limited evidence we have so far shows that Romney gained more than Obama lost, which is probably relatively good news for Obama in context.

The media narrative has been "Romney won the debate!" - anyone claiming that this is a bad thing for Romney is nothing but a hack and troll.

[Sbane]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

Yes, it is good news that Obama is still leading by 2 instead of being behind Romney. Very good news actually. It doesn't matter if you win by 2 or 6 points, a win is a win.

[pbrower2a]

This is a state poll, but it may cause us to calibrate the effects of any bounce that Mitt Romney got from the debate:


Virginia Survey Results

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Which matters greatly.

Using all names appearing on the ballot for President:

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It is 50-47 for Obama if third-party nominees are not mentioned.

On what matters most:

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Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

...and something of transitory interest

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I know that state polls generally belong elsewhere,  but Virginia is likely close to the US average in its voting. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html

[afleitch]

RAND stable.

Obama 48.93 (-0.02)
Romney 45.91 (+0.09)

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens

[Franzl]

Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens

Wow.