National Tracking Poll Thread

[ShadowOfTheWave]

The President back ahead with Scott: 47-45.

Suddenly Rasmussen is a credible pollster again. Amazing.

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

No, it just shows that Rasmussen is a joke.

[You kip if you want to...]

No, it just shows that Rasmussen is a joke.

This.

[Fuzzy]

Obama up 3 on Gallup today, 47 to 44.  Just a few days ago, he was down 48 to 43.


lol 

[Yank2133]

Well there goes the Romney bump.......

[Joe Republic]

"Dominating."

[Landslide Lyndon]

I really don't particularly trust Rasmussen or PPP to a certain extent at this point because they both have an agenda of some sort to promote.

LOL, Sam.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point, and it is far, FAR, from over, contrary to what the Romney detractors would like everybody to believe.

[Minnesota Mike]

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point, and it is far, FAR, from over, contrary to what the Romney detractors would like everybody to believe.

Dead heat? Agree it is close and far from over but the vast majority of polls show Obama with a small lead especially in key battleground states (Ohio, Florida).

[King]

Well, the election is 6 months away, so of course it's far from over.  It could be +10 either direction and it would be "far from over" simply because it's far from over.

[Governor Scott]

Well, the election is 6 months away, so of course it's far from over.  It could be +10 either direction and it would be "far from over" simply because it's far from over.

I'm starting to think this now, too.  I don't even put a lot of faith in national polls anymore.

[ajb]

Gallup's tracker has Obama up by 7 over Romney today, 49 (+2) to 42 (-2). Clearly, this is going to fluctuate as much as their approval rating poll does (of course, since it's actually the same poll...).

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point,

No, it really isn't.

[Fuzzy]

Rasmussen has Romney up 48-44 again.

[King]

Rasmussen has Romney up 48-44 again.

Yes, but Obama will be up 53-41 tomorrow and then back to Romney +6 after the first round of the NFL draft gives him a bounce.

[Umengus]

Ras is the only pollster to use "lv" model. Others prefer still RV. And RV are more democratic than LV.... That explains why ras shows Romney ahead.

When all pollsters will use LV model, Romney will be in a better position than now.

[King]

Ras is the only pollster to use "lv" model. Others prefer still RV. And RV are more democratic than LV.... That explains why ras shows Romney ahead.

When all pollsters will use LV model, Romney will be in a better position than now.

That assumes the likely voter model should have a strong R tilt ,especially with a generally uncharismatic candidate like Mitt.

[Umengus]

between D +0 and D +2 seems good for me. 2012 will be a little like 2004 IMO.

[cinyc]

The Economist/YouGov poll has Romney over Obama 47%-46%.  It's that newfangled Internet polling, so caveat emptor.  But it is a poll of registered, not likely voters.

[King]

Gallup
Obama 50%
Romney 43%

Rasmussen
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

[Rowan]

Since this is what this thread is actually for:

Rasmussen

Romney: 47%
Obama: 45%

Gallup

Romney: 47%
Obama: 46%

[Ben Romney]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 47% of the vote and President Obama attracting 46% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[krazen1211]

http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/75973.html
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/05/bg_47_questionnaire.html




Likely Voters.



Romney: 48
Obama: 47

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I refuse to believe that all these polls showing the race almost tied are junk polls. Something's going on here, because these numbers aren't translating into the state polls. Could it be that Romney is doing better in traditional blue states? (No shot at winning their EVs, but he's just losing by a smaller margin than Republicans typically have lost by in the past?)

[King]

I refuse to believe that all these polls showing the race almost tied are junk polls. Something's going on here, because these numbers aren't translating into the state polls. Could it be that Romney is doing better in traditional blue states? (No shot at winning their EVs, but he's just losing by a smaller margin than Republicans typically have lost by in the past?)

I don't think Romney is doing better, per say, Obama hasn't rallied the base yet in his strongholds.   The Republicans are currently going through a "rally behind the nominee" moment in Republican states.  For Democrats, the election really hasn't been on their minds yet.  

A lot of the New England, California and New York, polls, for example, still have double digit "undecided."  We all know that, except for New Hampshire, that will break 9 to 1 for Obama.  It always breaks for the Democrat regardless of the situation. That is what I see in the national polls.  That could account for some of his lag in the national numbers.  In the fact, in the poll krazen posted, Romney is the 90s with his party while Obama is still in the mid-80s.  Both will be in the 90s on election day.

Then, as krazen likes to remind us, the likely voter model is, of course, favorable to the Republicans at the moment.  That's promising for Romney, but again the Democrats have not started a GOTV effort because of the lack of a primary election.  Who is likely to vote in an election six months from now could be a completely different story.