National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Considering their 7-day tracker, a HUGE Obama sample must have come in yesterday or so.

Or last week.  This could be a bump due to last week's post 47% comment numbers coming in. 

[mondale84]

On Sunday "it's tied on Gallup" was the talking point.

On Monday and Tuesday it was "It's statistically tied on Gallup"

Today: "Gallup is just another hack liberal pollster overestimating Democrats*"


*btw only trust Gallup when analyzing how this race is just like 1976, except ignore the president's Gallup approval rating in 1980 vs. 2012

Unsurprising that Republicans make no sense.

[Likely Voter]

Ipsos/Reuters:

LV
Obama 49 (-)
Romney 43 (+1)

RV
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 40 (+1)


Sept 22-26, 2012

[King]

Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf

Over a year of campaigning and a billion dollars spent and we're getting a repeat of 2008.

Romney accidentally stimulated the economy in all the swing states.

[ajb]

The RAND American Life Panel (9/26):
Obama: 50.46%
Romney: 42.46%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The graph here is pretty eloquent, if you follow the link...

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos remains at 49-42 today:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88Q1JB20120927

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

What is Rasmussen even doing to have Romney ahead in this race?  He's ahead but losing every swing state outside of NC by more than 5?  It makes him look ridiculous.  This is a renowed pollster with a decent record but he was dreadful in 2010 and he's seemingly completely off the mark this time.

[Likely Voter]

Today Nate Silver wrote about how Rasmussen is the only poll showing anything good for Romney  noting...

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[sobo]

Rasmussen w/o lean:
Obama:  46 (nc)
Romney: 46 (nc)

Rasmussen w/ lean:
Obama:  48 (+2)
Romney: 48 (nc)

Gallup:
Obama:  50 (nc)
Romney: 44 (nc)

Reuters/Ipsos:
Obama:  49 (nc)
Romney: 42 (-1)

[J. J.]

Today Nate Silver wrote about how Rasmussen is the only poll showing anything good for Romney  noting...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They actually underestimated the number GOP House seats gained in 2010.

One difference is the cycle.  Rasmussen is on a three day cycle, so it responds more quickly.  It had Romney down last week, while Gallup showed him gaining/holding.

[CultureKing]

The RAND American Life Panel (9/26):
Obama: 50.46%
Romney: 42.46%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The graph here is pretty eloquent, if you follow the link...

Look at the last graph. It's the breakdown of voters by income. Romney has lost big with low-income voters over the last three or so weeks.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

[Umengus]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

"Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party."

so the R+4 sample is a myth...

[Earthling]

The words coming from Scott Rasmussen. That is an objective source.

[ajb]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

[J. J.]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

[Likely Voter]

Ipsos/Reuters:

LV
Obama 47 (-2)
Romney 42 (-)

RV
Obama 46 (-2)
Romney 39 (+1)


Sept 24-28 2012

[Eraserhead]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

[memphis]

The RAND American Life Panel (9/26):
Obama: 50.46%
Romney: 42.46%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The graph here is pretty eloquent, if you follow the link...

Look at the last graph. It's the breakdown of voters by income. Romney has lost big with low-income voters over the last three or so weeks.

Amazing how a population responds to a politician saying, behind their back, that they see themselves as victims and are, thus, unworthy of courting.

[ajb]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.

Approval ratings do matter ... but only to a point. I've argued all year that if the horse race is really close, then the approvals will matter. But if the challenger is clearly down nationally, and the approvals of the incumbent are down or even in negative terms, then it shows the incumbent can be ahead in spite of that.

But this election could break many established rules of elections... having said that I doubt Obama's approvals will be underwater in many places outside of Ras on election day.

[ajb]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.

Approval ratings do matter ... but only to a point. I've argued all year that if the horse race is really close, then the approvals will matter. But if the challenger is clearly down nationally, and the approvals of the incumbent are down or even in negative terms, then it shows the incumbent can be ahead in spite of that.

But this election could break many established rules of elections... having said that I doubt Obama's approvals will be underwater in many places outside of Ras on election day.

Well, approval ratings do matter, but across all pollsters, not in one daily tracking poll with a small sample, and not really among adults at this point.

[J. J.]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

I generally have been reporting both as a matter of course, when I have them.

[ajb]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

I generally have been reporting both as a matter of course, when I have them.

In the interest of thoroughness, then, I'm posting the Rasmussen tracking poll numbers here, for anyone who may have missed them in the Obama Approval rating thread:

without leaners: Obama 48-Romney 46
with leaners: Obama 49-Romney 47

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

[J. J.]

Still holding on Gallup with Romney 46, Obama 50.

Approval now at 48%, 46% disapprove.