National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

RAND poll
Obama 49.56
Romney 44.94

It continues to show Romney's bounce fading. The results are around where they were before the Obama/Romney debate.

Of course we still dont know if their methodology makes any sense at all, but they have nice graphs and lots of decimal places so it has to be good!

[Lief 🗽]

So Obama leads two tracking polls today (+2 and +5), Romney leads two (+1 and +2) and one is a tie.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

RAND Poll (Obama +5.15)
Obama- 49.66% (+.1)
Romney-44.51% (-.53)

The Debate bounce has officially faded on RAND. Romney is back to his pre-debate levels of support. Just waiting on Rasmussen and Gallup.
Anyone know why RAND Polls aren't included in the RCP Average? It's not an Internet poll, and they seem to be including the IBD-TIPP Daily Tracker in their average. Seems pretty wierd to me.

[Eraserhead]

RAND Poll (Obama +5.15)
Obama- 49.66% (+.1)
Romney-44.51% (-.53)

The Debate bounce has officially faded on RAND. Romney is back to his pre-debate levels of support. Just waiting on Rasmussen and Gallup.
Anyone know why RAND Polls aren't included in the RCP Average? It's not an Internet poll, and they seem to be including the IBD-TIPP Daily Tracker in their average. Seems pretty wired to me.

Interesting but extremely unorthodox methodology.

Plus, showing better than average results for Obama is no way to get yourself on RCP.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

[Lief 🗽]

Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)

[Skill and Chance]

Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

[Devils30]

The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

I'd love to know what the RV is on this.

[Skill and Chance]

Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

Tied 47/47.

I'd love to know what the RV is on this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?

Gallup polls have favored the GOP throughout the campaign.

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely)

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  46, -1

Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  45, -2

[tmthforu94]

Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)

11% undecided, just three weeks from Election Day?

Not sure I believe that.

[krazen1211]

The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?

Actually he's losing in VA and CO polls.

[DrScholl]

Gallup doesn't always fit with the state polls and can be all over the place. Other trackers don't seem to be lining up with what Gallup is finding.

[krazen1211]

Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)

11% undecided, just three weeks from Election Day?

Not sure I believe that.

Obama has been cut down to the 47%ers.

[cavalcade]

Romney has actually been improving in Gallup as post-debate days have dropped off the sample.  The result is that Gallup is looking awfully R now- did they re-fix their sample after that criticism over increasing cell phone and minority weighting?

In any case, it looks like Romney leads the national PV going into tonight's debate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The result is that Gallup is looking awfully R now- did they re-fix their sample after that criticism over increasing cell phone and minority weighting?

I think that explains it. In the process, Gallup made their own polling less accurate.

[Lief 🗽]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

It was tied yesterday.

So Obama improved in three tracker todays (Reuters/Ipsos, IBD/TIPP and RAND) and Romney improved in the other two (Rasmussen, Gallup).

[Eraserhead]

Gallup is odd.

Would have been a decent day for Obama if not for that and the Dailykos/PPP poll.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

It was tied yesterday.

So Obama improved in three tracker todays (Reuters/Ipsos, IBD/TIPP and RAND) and Romney improved in the other two (Rasmussen, Gallup).

Lots of red faces at PPP right now.

[Likely Voter]

What is clear now is that there are some outlier polls. What isn't clear is which ones are the outliers.

[Beet]

Gallup is odd.

Would have been a decent day for Obama if not for that and the Dailykos/PPP poll.

I know what you mean, but the 'day' doesn't start until 9 pm est.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the words of Nate Silver 'the polls have stopped making any sense... again'

[Brittain33]

The Gallup poll shows that relative to 2008, Obama has collapsed in the south, fallen some in the east, and is stable in the Midwest and West. This is consistent with polls showing him losing Florida and tightening in Pa., and would seem to indicate trouble in Va. But it would also explain the OH/WI/IA/NV firewall he's got going. Remember when Obama polled reasonable well in TN? That's gone.