National Tracking Poll Thread

[Oakvale]

Umengus and his Umengites ruin every polling thread.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

[pepper11]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

[Oakvale]

Gallup is literally such an insane outlier that either

A) This race is somehow turning into a Romney blowout and only Gallup is noticing.

or

B) Gallup is heading toward irrelevancy.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

[Umengus]

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

[J. J.]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

And in all fairness, we are not seeing any debate bounce on other polls, though I think it is too early.

[Yank2133]

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

Jesus.........

[pepper11]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

538 went toward Romney yesterday and its going to do the same today. Only hackery here is denial of the polls.

[Lief 🗽]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

538 went toward Romney yesterday

It didn't.

[Yank2133]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

[pepper11]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

Not yesterday, although the increments are pretty small so it's hard to tell.
If you mouse-over the graph, you'll see.

[Yank2133]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

It didn't.

Lief is correct, Obama was at 64.8 the other day and is at 65.7.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

No, the fact that those numbers conflict like this should be enough to question Gallup's credibility on this race and Obama's approval rating no matter what it shows.

[Sbane]

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

Yes, and if there are more Democrats likely to vote (or are identifying as such to pollsters), Obama is in a better spot. Party ID is fluid!!!! How can we get this into your thick skull?

[Yank2133]

Reuters

Obama-47(NC)
Romney-44(NC)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/18/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE89F07J20121018

[Likely Voter]

Summarizing the trackers for the day (with rounding)...

Gallup   R+7
Rasmussen R+2
TIPP TIE
PPP  TIE
Reuters O+3
RAND 0+6

avg  TIE

[TrapperHawk]

Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

[Niemeyerite]

Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

[Lief 🗽]

Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

Well if you look at the approval numbers (on a 3-day cycle), Obama's improved by about five points between the first half of the current 7-day Gallup sample and the second half.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Something to consider re: Gallup

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[LiberalJunkie]

Gallup is losing credibility by the day.

[Yank2133]

Gallup hasn't had much credibility in terms of LV for over a a decade now.