National Tracking Poll Thread

[Yank2133]

ABC/Washington post

Obama-48(+1)
Romney-49(-1)

[Eraserhead]

ABC/Washington post

Obama-48(+1)
Romney-49(-1)

Nice! Gallup and Rasmussen are still in la la land. I was worried about this one though...

[Tender Branson]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

[opebo]

Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see.

The last time I checked this country is more, not less diverse today than it was in 2008.

Yes, just think of all the old white people who have died off in Florida and Ohio over the last four years, and all the black and hispanic citizens who have reached voting age during that time.  It is really heartwarming.

[LiberalJunkie]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

People on Daily Kos are saying there's a brand spankin' new Rand poll that says Obama is up by 6. I'm talking brand new, folks. But I haven't seen it mentioned here yet.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

But Obama always has a smashing lead among self-described moderates. If he was losing moderates, I'd be worried.

[Oakvale]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

^^^^ This. Hence, ignore the Umengites who post ROMNEY WINNING INDIES BY A MILLION on every poll.

[ajb]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

^^^^ This. Hence, ignore the Umengites who post ROMNEY WINNING INDIES BY A MILLION on every poll.

... and who simultaneously complain that there aren't enough Republicans in those same polls, pretending that there's no connection between the two phenomena.

[evan83]

So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?

[Yank2133]

So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?

It is likely the ARG Ohio poll.

[ajb]

So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?

It is likely the ARG Ohio poll.

Or just the unwinding of the unwarranted rise in Romney's Intrade numbers a few days ago. The other betting markets never jumped on that particular bandwagon, so it's only natural that Intrade would revert to the mean at some point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[dirks]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

[dirks]

gore slowly started closing right about now...and the DWI cover-up really tightened things up in the last few days

Bush's "compassionate conservative" act...which seems silly now, was actually resonating, they were doing a tremendous job presenting him as a centrist and getting a lot of crossover votes for Dems. Dems in general were very slow to get excited and embrace gore. They came around at the very very end

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama surged in RAND today, to his highest level ever.

Obama: 50.56%
Romney: 44.64%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

[dirks]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does

[Brittain33]

Obama surged in RAND today, to his highest level ever.

Obama: 50.56%
Romney: 44.64%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

It's a RANDSLIDE!

[dirks]

Rand is pretty much bunk, same with that intrade garbage

[Joe Biden 2020]

People on Daily Kos are saying there's a brand spankin' new Rand poll that says Obama is up by 6. I'm talking brand new, folks. But I haven't seen it mentioned here yet.

Nobody listens to Daily Kos.  They are too far to the left.

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does

Not really. In 2010 they said the GOP would win the congressional ballot by fifteen points; they actually won it by 7.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

This is 2012.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

Why? Because Romney is ahead? I don't know if you know this, but this election is far from over.  Nobody knows who is going to win.

[Yank2133]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does

Not really. In 2010 they said the GOP would win the congressional ballot by fifteen points; they actually won it by 7.

They were also off in 2000. Silver says it best, when Gallup has wild swings like these......then chances are they are wrong.

Reuters

Obama-47(+1)
Romney-46(-1)